Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.     

北京连续降雪过程分析

该文对2002年12月份北京出现的1841年以来历史上最长的连续6天的降雪天气进行了合成分析和诊断分析。北半球合成环流形势显示，连续降雪发生在东亚稳定的纬向环流形势下，其上游地区强大经向环流和阻塞高压使中纬度东亚和西太平洋纬向环流得以维持。东亚合成环流的垂直结构表明，连续降雪期间华北地区始终处于锋区中，并存在低空辐合、高空辐散的散度场垂直分布结构。卫星水汽云图显示出有水汽通道向河套倒槽云系输送水汽。华北地区的诊断分析表明，地面和边界层中山东地区分裂高压南侧向北回流的偏南气流是造成降雪的主要水汽通道。变形场的流场结构使水汽在北京附近辐合。垂直剖面展现了华北回流降雪天气近地面层的浅薄的冷空气垫，和暖湿空气回流在冷空气垫上的爬升，并在其上形成一个浅薄的饱和层。     

A joint distribution of significant wave height and characteristic surf parameter

The paper provides a joint distribution of significant wave height and characteristic surf parameter. The characteristic surf parameter is given by the ratio between the slope of a beach or a structure and the square root of the characteristic wave steepness in deep water defined in terms of the significant wave height and the spectral peak period. The characteristic surf parameter is used to characterize surf zone processes and is relevant for e.g. wave run-up on beaches and coastal structures. The paper presents statistical properties of the wave parameters as well as an example of results corresponding to typical field conditions.     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

A comparison of channel-base currents and optical signals for rocket-triggered lightning strokes

A comparative analysis has been performed of the channel-base current and light waveforms for four rocket-triggered lightning strokes. It has been found that the current and light signals at the bottom of the channel exhibit a linear relationship (direct proportionality) in their rising portions. However, just after the peaks the linearity disappears, and the light signals usually decrease faster than the currents during the next several microseconds. Later, this trend is reversed and in some cases the light signals show another rising trend, even when the currents continue to decrease. The linear light/current relationship for the rising portions of the waveforms appears to be the same for different strokes. The findings support the idea of evaluating the variation of return stroke current along the lightning return stroke channel using light signals, provided that evaluation is limited to the rising portions of those signals and assuming that the light/current relationship observed at the bottom of the channel holds at other heights.     

Triggered-lightning properties inferred from measured currents and very close electric fields

Triggered-lightning properties, including dart-leader charge density, return-stroke propagation speed, dart-leader electric potential, dart-leader propagation speed, and dart-leader current, inferred from return-stroke current and very close electric field measurements, are presented. Although most of the estimates are based on relatively crude models, they are all generally in good agreement with independent measurements and/or theoretical considerations found in the literature. The results are likely to be applicable to subsequent strokes in natural lightning.     

汕头市历史地震影响烈度的分析

本文将所论地震事件视为随机事件。按全概率定理分析了地震对场地的地震动影响(A)和超越给定值的概率P:对地震烈度序列进行了极值统计分析,得到汕头市地震平均重现期及其对应的烈度值。     

Earthquake catalogues and modelling strategies. A new testing procedure for the comparison between competing models

In this paper we consider the procedures that, on the basis of an earthquake catalogue, yield the magnitude distribution function F _M (F _M generators). In particular, our attention is focused on the F _M generators that are currently used in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of F _M in the range of strong earthquakes is of crucial importance. On the other hand, in general, the statistical validation of F _M in that range is not feasible because of an insufficient number of strong earthquakes in available catalogues.Our investigation is limited to the problem of the comparison between competing F _M generators. We show that a simple empirical F _M generator (called the CFP generator) can be more reliable than generators based on mathematical models. The numerical experiments that support this statement regards two test-sites and two mathematical models of magnitude distribution, namely the truncated-exponential and the characteristic-type models.The main conclusion is the suggestion of a test (called the CFP-test) that can be summarized as follows. Let X be a site for which, with current criteria, a specific F _M ^X generator based on a mathematical model has been selected. At this point, following the comparison approach described in the paper, the F _M ^X generator is compared with the empirical CFP generator. It can happen (actually it happens in many of our numerical experiments) that this test indicates the CFP generator as more reliable than the selected F _M ^X generator.     

多回击负地闪先导通道的辐射和光学特征

利用闪电VHF窄带干涉仪辐射源定位系统和高速摄像系统,对青海大通地区一次有5次回击的负地闪放电过程进行了同步观测,对比分析了通道传输过程的辐射和光学特征.结果表明,光学通道亮度能补充VHF干涉仪定位先导通道的电流特征,VHF干涉仪定位弥补了光学设备拍摄弱放电和云内流光通道的不足;在通道分枝结构上,干涉仪定位的通道和光学通道呈现出很好对应.干涉仪定位分枝通道的辐射源点较明显,但分枝光学通道的出现明显落后于干涉仪定位辐射源通道.对用两种不同观测手段探测的先导通道进行速度计算,发现两者计算的直窜先导和直窜梯级先导速度量级一致,均为106m·s-1,但干涉仪在时间的获取及精确量化上有优势,干涉仪定位计算先导速度的精确度高于光学通道定位.     

Characteristics of chaotic pulse trains generated by lightning flashes

Pulse trains of irregular pulse characteristics and erratic amplitudes are observed in lightning flashes. These are termed “chaotic pulse trains” in this study. The average width of the individual pulses of these pulse trains is in the range of a few microseconds, with the lower limit of individual measurements extending into the sub-microsecond region. The typical pulse separation lies in the range of 2–. The pulse duration shows a consistent distribution with the most probable value at 400–. Chaotic pulse trains occur most often immediately prior to subsequent strokes. However, they occur also a few milliseconds to several tens of milliseconds prior to return strokes and sometimes do not precede return strokes at all. Twenty-six percent of the total subsequent strokes recorded in this study were preceded by chaotic pulse trains. A few of these pulse trains have occurred in a sequence of several tens of millisecond intervals in between return strokes. We have also found them to occur within very intense cloud flashes. These chaotic pulse trains have features that are different from those of other known pulse trains reported in the lightning literature. Hence, they may be caused by a physical process that has not yet been identified.