基于优化经验模态分解和聚类分析的滑坡位移智能预测研究

针对三峡库区"阶跃式"滑坡的变形特征,提出了一种新的滑坡位移预测方法。以白水河滑坡ZG118和XD-01监测点位移数据为例,采用基于软筛分停止准则的经验模态分解(SSSC-EMD)将累计位移-时间曲线和影响因子时间序列自适应地分解为多个固有模态函数(IMF),并采用K均值(K-Means)聚类法对其进行聚类累加,得到有物理含义的位移分量(趋势性位移、周期性位移以及随机性位移)和影响因子分量(高频影响因子和低频影响因子)。使用最小二乘法对趋势性位移进行拟合预测;采用果蝇优化-最小二乘支持向量机(FOA-LSSVM)模型对周期性位移和随机性位移进行预测。将各位移分量预测值进行叠加处理,实现滑坡累计位移的预测。研究结果表明,所提出的(SSSC-EMD)-K-Means-(FOA-LSSVM)模型能够预测"阶跃式"滑坡的位移变化规律,且预测精度高于传统的支持向量机回归(SVR)、最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型;并通过改变训练集长度,进行单因素分析,发现其与预测精度之间呈正相关关系。     

基于偏最小二乘回归的区域换式风速预报订正技术研究

利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013-2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。所选956站中多数站点风速订正后有所改善,通过定量分析可知浙江西部地区整体改善效果最好,其中效果明显站点占91.7%;中部地区改善效果明显站点占86.5%;东部沿海地区改善效果略差,明显改善的站点占67%。各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%外,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在定海大岛站点(靠里)中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。     

四川地形扰动对降水分布影响

引入一维加权平均的谱分析方法定量研究四川地形强迫对该区域降水分布的影响。结果表明:纬向地形和冬季降水谱峰锁相于同一波长（475.8 km）,呈共振关系,地形与其他季节降水呈漂移关系,这与经向和纬向上环流变动有关,即冬季纬向环流占主导,纬向地形触发的大气波动对冬季降水策动作用大;夏季降水是各种不同尺度系统相互作用的结果,地形是重要因素之一。经向和纬向地形特征尺度分别为296.8 km和475.8 km,反映了地形强迫的中尺度特征,且纬向地形谱峰比经向大1个数量级,纬向强迫更明显。夏季降水谱峰比冬季大2个数量级,降水系统纬向特征尺度比冬季小约150 km,说明夏季在纬向地形强迫下,降水系统尺度减小的同时其强度大大增加,这在一定程度上可以解释中尺度对流性降水在夏季偏多。四川夏季最大降水位于雅安地区,其地形扰动比四川整体扰动更明显,故产生的降水也更大。夏季降水和经向地形锁相于同一波长（37.1 km）,经向地形对雅安夏季强降水起关键作用。     

酸溶法测定硫铁矿中的全硫

在野外地质队实验室仪器少的条件下,用酸溶的方法分析硫铁矿中全硫,简单、快速、易操作,取得良好的结果。     

地震预警现地PGV连续预测的最小二乘支持向量机模型

为提升现地仪器地震烈度预测的准确性与连续性,研究面向地震预警的PGV连续预测模型.以中国仪器地震烈度标准的计算参数:0.1～10 Hz带通滤波三分向矢量合成速度峰值PGV为预测目标,利用日本K-net与KiK-net台网P波触发后1?10 s强震数据,基于人工智能中的机器学习方法-最小二乘支持向量机,选取7种特征参数作...     

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索佳SET×130R系列全站仪的维修

介绍了索佳SET×130R系列全站仪的常规检查和调整,维修程序,为技术人员在解决索佳全站仪常见故障和几种指标参数的校正提供参考.     

Total lipid and fatty acid composition of eight strains of marine diatoms

Fatty acid composition and total lipid content of 8 strains of marine diatoms (Nitzschia frustrula, Nitzschia closterium, Nitzschia incerta, Navicula pelliculosa, Phaeodactylum tricornutum, Synedra fragilaroides) were examined. The microalgae were grown under defined conditions and harvested at the late exponential phase. The major fatty acids in most strains were 14∶0 (1.0%–6.3%), 16∶0 (13.5–26.4%), 16∶1n−7 (21.1%–46.3%) and 20∶5n−3 (6.5%–19.5%). The polyunsaturated fatty acids 16∶2n−4, 16∶3n−4, 16∶4n−1 and 20∶4n−6 also comprised a significant proportion of the total fatty acids in some strains. The characteristic fatty acid composition of diatoms is readily distinguishable from those of other microalgal groups. Significant concentration of the polyunsaturated fatty acid 20∶5n−3 (eicosapentaenoic acid) was present in each strain, with the highest proportion in B222 (19.5%). Project supported by the Hi-Tech “863” Programs of the China Ministry of Science and Technology (863-819-02-01).     

祁连山亚高山灌丛林叶面积指数与冠层氮、磷的关系

氮和磷作为植物体内重要的生命元素,在植物群落的生长发育过程中发挥着重要的作用。为了明确祁连山亚高山灌丛林叶面积指数与冠层氮、磷之间的关系,本文通过对祁连山亚高山灌丛林不同植被类型(箭叶锦鸡儿、高山吉拉柳、金露梅)及不同放牧处理(羊群、牦牛,未放牧)条件下灌丛群落的叶面积指数(LAI)与叶片氮积累量(TFN)、叶片磷积累量(TFP)比较发现,在整个亚高山灌丛群落中,LAI与TFN和TFP之间都有较强的相关性,并且TFN和TFP比值的变化表明不同植被类型叶片的生长都受到N、P的共同限制,只是随着LAI的增加,高山吉拉柳主要受到氮素的限制,箭叶锦鸡儿主要受到磷素的限制,而金露梅则受到N、P的共同限制;在不同放牧条件下,单位面积LAI对应的TFN的值较高而TFP的值较低,说明动物通过对植被的啃食可能会改变群落的模式,在一定程度上限制磷的摄入。LAI、N、P之间的耦合关系表明了亚高山灌丛群落的LAI在物种组成、放牧和冠层密度上存在差异,但仍然受到N和P的约束。研究结果有利于探索水分限制条件下祁连山灌丛林生态系统植物叶片与养分元素之间关系,对于研究干旱区高寒灌丛生态系统在全球气候变化中的作用及其对全球气候变化的响应与反馈,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。     

黑河流域土地利用变化对土壤有机碳和全氮储量的影响——元分析（英文）

Land use and cover change(LUCC) is an important indicator of the human-earth system under climate/environmental change,which also serves as a key impact factor of carbon balance,and a major source/sink of soil carbon cycles.The Heihe River Basin(HRB) is known as a typical ecologically fragile area in the arid/semi-arid regions of northwestern China,which makes it more sensitive to the LUCC.However,its sensitivity varies in a broad range of controlling factors,such as soil layers,LUCCs and calculation methods(e.g.the fixed depth method,FD,and the equivalent mass method,ESM).In this study,we performed a meta-analysis to assess the response of soil organic carbon(SOC) and total nitrogen(TN) storage to the LUCC as well as method bias based on 383 sets of SOC data and 148 sets of TN data from the HRB.We first evaluated the calculation methods and found that based on the FD method,the LUCC caused SOC and TN storage to decrease by 17.39% and 14.27%,respectively;while the losses estimated using the ESM method were 19.31% and 18.52%,respectively.The deviations between two methods were mainly due to the fact that the FD method ignores the heterogeneity of soil bulk density(BD),which may underestimate the results subsequently.We then analyzed the response of SOC and TN storage to various types of the LUCC.In particular,when woodland and grassland were converted into cultivated land or other land types,SOC and TN suffered from heavy losses,while other LUCCs had minor influences.Finally,we showed that increasing the depth of the soil layers would reduce the losses of SOC and TN storage.In summary,we identified a series of controlling factors(e.g.soil layer,the LUCC and calculation method) to evaluate the impact of the LUCC on SOC and TN storage in the HRB,which should be considered in future research.