Welcoming a monster to the world: Myths,oral tradition,and modern societal response to volcanic disasters

Volcanic eruptions can overwhelm all senses of observers in their violence, spectacle and sheer incredibility. When an eruption is catastrophic or unexpected, neither individuals nor communities can easily assimilate the event into their world view. Psychological studies of disaster aftermaths have shown that trauma can shake the very foundations of a person's faith and trigger a search – supernatural, religious, or scientific – for answers. For this reason, the ability to rapidly comprehend a traumatic event by “accepting” the catastrophe as part the observer's world represents an important component of community resilience to natural hazards. A relationship with the event may be constructed by adapting existing cosmological, ancestral, or scientific frameworks, as well as through creative and artistic expression. In non-literate societies, communal perceptions of an event may be transformed into stories that offer myth-like explanations. As these stories make their way into oral traditions, they often undergo major changes to allow transmission through generations and, in some cases, to serve political or religious purposes. Disaster responses in literate societies are no different, except that they are more easily recorded and therefore are less prone to change over time.     

A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.     

Propagation of P and S-waves in magmas with different crystal contents: Insights into the crystallinity of magmatic reservoirs

Increasing amount of crystals tends to reduce the mobility of magmas and modifies its elastic characteristics (e.g. [Caricchi, L. et al., 2007. Non-Newtonian rheology of crystal-bearing magmas and implications for magma ascent dynamics. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 264: 402–419.; Bagdassarov, N., Dingwell, D.B. and Webb, S.L., 1994. Viscoelasticity of crystal- and bubble-bearing rhyolite melts. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interior, 83: 83–99.]). To quantify the effect of crystals on the elastic properties of magmas the propagation speed of shear and compressional waves have been measured at pressure and temperatures relevant for natural magmatic reservoirs. The measurements have been performed in aggregates at variable particle fractions (? = 0–0.7). The measurements were carried out at 200 MPa confining pressure and temperatures between 300 K and 1273 K (i.e. across the glass transition temperature (Tg) from glass to melt). The specimens were mixtures of a haplogranitic melt containing 5.25 wt.% H₂O and variable amounts of sub-spherical alumina particles. Additional experiments were carried out on a sample containing both, crystals and air bubbles. The temperature derivatives of the shear (dVs/dT) and compressional wave (dVp/dT) velocities for pure glass and samples with a crystal fraction of 0.5 are different below and above the glass transition temperature. For a crystal fraction 0.7, only dVp/dT changed above the Tg. In the presence of gas bubbles, Vp and Vs decrease constantly with increasing temperature. The bubble-bearing material yields a lower bulk modulus relative to its shear modulus. The propagation velocities of compressional and shear waves increase non-linearly with increasing crystal fraction with a prominent raise in the range 0.5 < ? < 0.7. The speed variations are only marginally related to the density increase due to the presence of crystals, but are dominantly related to the achievement of a continuous crystal framework. The experimental data set presented here can be utilized to estimate the relative proportions of crystals and melt present in a magmatic reservoir, which, in turn, is one of the fundamental parameters determining the mobility of magma and, consequently, exerting a prime control on the likelihood of an eruption from a sub-surficial magma reservoir.     

Seismic Hazard Matrix of Buildings in Yunnan

Seismologists have begun to investigate the earthquake damage and assess the economic losses on the spot in the Yunnan area since the earthquakes with Ms6.7 and Ms6.9 that occurred on the boundary between China and Myanmar west of Menglian county, Yunnan Province, on April 23, 1992. From 1992 to 2003, 50 destructive earthquakes occurred in Yunnan, and large amounts of data on seismic hazard have been accumulated. With focus on the major building structures, the paper makes statistical analysis on the earthquake damage ratio, loss ratio and seismic hazard index in the areas with different seismic intensity of the 50 events, and presents the seismic hazard matrix of buildings for the Yunnan area.     

川西及邻近地区地震活动性模拟和断层间相互作用研究

本研究采用基于库仑破裂准则的地震活动性准静态模型,模拟计算了川西地区长达10000年的理论地震目录,通过对理论地震目录的分析发现川西地区M_s≥7.0强震在时间上表现出很强的随机性,与平均地震发生率为1/22.0年^－1（≈0.0454年^－1）的Poisson过程很相近, Poisson模型可能是川西地区开展长期（数10年）地震危险性计算中较为合适的模型.而单一断层M_s≥7.0强震的时间间隔分布与Poisson过程存在很大的差异,用Poisson模型估计单一构造上长期地震危险性可能是不合适的.通过分析模拟产生的长时间理论地震目录,逐一给出了川西地区主要断层的M_s≥7.0强震的时间间隔分布与平均M_s≥7.0强震的复现时间,并讨论了主要断层间强震活动的相互关联,计算出了强震在各断层间的转移概率.定量计算了研究区一断层的破裂产生的库仑应力在研究区其他断层面上的投影.从而为研究断层间的相互作用,研究一断层发生强震对其他断层发生强震危险性的影响提供了依据.本文为开展区域地震危险性分析研究提出了新的思想和途径.     

岩溶区不同土洞探测方法的对比研究——以桂阳高速公路K23+100～K23+190路段为例

岩溶土洞及塌陷严重影响高速公路建设和安全运营,是覆盖型岩溶区高速公路路基面临而且又难以解决的主要岩溶病害问题。本文在桂阳高速公路K23+ 100～ K23+ 190路段利用地质雷达、浅层地震反射法、高密度电阻率法三种常规物探方法对土洞探测进行对比实验,结果表明: 地质雷达具有精度和效率高、成本低、成果直观等特点,是探测浅埋藏( < 10m)、小尺寸( < 3m)土洞的最佳方法。      

Delineation of potential seismic sources for seismic zoning of Iran

A total of 235 potential seismic sources in Iran and neighboring regions are delineated based on available geological, geophysical, tectonic and earthquake data for seismic hazard assessment of the country. In practice, two key assumptions are considered; first, the assumption of earthquake repeatedness, implying that major earthquakes occur preferentially near the sites of previous earthquakes; second, the assumption of tectonic analogy, which implies that structures of analogous tectonic setting are capable of generating same size earthquakes. A two-step procedure is applied for delineation of seismic sources: first, demarcation of seismotectonic provinces; second, determination of potential seismic sources. Preferentially, potential seismic sources are modeled as area sources, in which the configuration of each source zone is controlled, mainly, by the extent of active faults, the mechanism of earthquake faultings and the seismogenic part of the crust.     

燃煤过程中有害元素转化机理研究进展

综述了煤中有毒、有害元素经燃烧之后的存在形式与去向,元素在燃烧过程中的热解释放行为及其转化机理;强调煤中无机组分为主要存在许多有毒、爱元素在燃烧过程中会释放出来,然后再分异扩散到各种燃烧产物之中,地民人体廷民危害;指出今后研究不仅限于煤中有毒、有害元素的形成机理,更应侧重对燃烧产物中毒、有害元素的分异与去除方法作进一步的研究与试验,力求使燃煤对环境与人体健康产生的危害降低到最低程度。     

潜在地震滑坡危险区区划方法

不同地区地震活动的强度和频率是不同的.基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡危险研究在综合了地震烈度、位置、复发时间等因素的基础上,考虑了地震动峰值加速度时空分布的特点,可以有效地应用于潜在地震滑坡危险区区划.以汶川地震灾区为研究对象,根据研究区的地质构造、地震活动特点等划分出灾区的潜在震源区,对该区进行地震危险性分析,并在此基础上采用综合指标法做出基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡危险性区划.所得地震滑坡危险性区划按照滑坡危险程度分为高危险、较高危险、较低危险和低危险四级,表示未来一段时间内研究区在遭受一定超越概率水平的地震动作用下,不同地区地震滑坡发生的可能程度. 本文给出的地震滑坡危险性区划结果中,汶川地震滑坡崩塌较发育的汶川、北川、茂县等部分区域均处于高危险或较高危险区域;在对具有较高DEM精度的北川擂鼓镇地区所作的地震滑坡危险性区划中,汶川地震中实际发生的地震滑坡灾害与地震滑坡危险区划结果表现出较好的一致性.对区域范围而言,基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡区划,可为初期阶段的土地规划使用及重大工程选址提供参考.     

地震危险性分析中最大地震震级的确定

最大地震的概念被广泛地应用于地震危险性分析研究中．在全球大陆的许多地方,由于缺乏详细的地质调查,已有的地质分析和构造类比等方法的应用面临着困难．本文根据历史地震资料,基于最大历史地震的概念,并引人核函数的基本思想,提出了一种确定最大地震震级的新方法．利用不同的确定最大震级的方法所进行的危险性分析结果的系统对比研究表明,将本文方法应用于地震危险性分析之中是实际可行的．与其他方法相比,该方法不仅适用于地质构造、地表形变等资料缺乏的区域,而且能在一定程度上反映出地震空间上的分形特征．