陕西地方暴雨增强数值预报系统及其试验结果分析

该文介绍了陕西地方暴雨增数值预业务系统，并对１９９５年６－８月进行的降水准业务预报试验结果作了分析及Ｔｓ评分检验。结果表明：模式系统运行４８ｈ以上性能稳定，对陕西区域暴雨的预报效果较好，对日常业务预报有参考价值。     

综合积分预报方法在四川地区的应用研究

根据《中国震例》提供的前兆异常资料,对1976～1985年期间发生在四川地区的4次6级以上地震应用国家地震局推广的实用化程序巾的综合积分方法对地震三要素进行判定,得到比较好的结果。文中对方法的某些基本点作了进一步的明确和强调。     

智能网格SCMOC及多模式降水预报对比

以三源融合网格实况降水分析资料CMPAS为参照,基于二分法经典检验、预报评分综合图和面向对象MODE检验等方法,对比分析2021年智能网格预报SCMOC以及ECMWF全球、CMA-Meso中尺度模式在秦岭及周边地区的降水预报表现,主要结论如下：1)ECMWF能够很好地刻画日平均降水量、日降水量标准差以及地形影响下降水量、降水频次的空间分布特征,但对于0.1 mm以上量级的降水预报频次远高于观测,暴雨预报频次低于观测,SCMOC、CMA-Meso日降水量大于等于0.1 mm的降水频次和暴雨频次预报更好;SCMOC不足在于降水的空间精细分布特征描述能力相对较弱。2)ECMWF预报的大于等于0.1 mm降水频次日峰值出现时间整体较观测偏早3 h左右,CMA-Meso、SCMOC与观测总体吻合较好。3)三种产品24 h降水量大于等于0.1 mm的TS(Threat Score)评分数值上基本一致,但降水预报表现的特征显著不同,SCMOC成功率高、命中率低,漏报多、空报少,ECMWF、CMA-Meso则相反;24 h、3 h大雨以上量级降水SCMOC的TS评分、成功率、命中率一致优于其他两种产品...     

MCTSI联合D-D评估急性胰腺炎患者临床预后的可行性分析

目的:评估MCTSI评分联合D-二聚体检测值与急性胰腺炎患者临床预后的相关性。方法:收集我院2016年8月至2018年1月间收治并确诊的急性胰腺炎患者150例,记录入院后首日血浆D-二聚体检测值,并于第5～7日行CT增强扫描检查,根据MCTSI标准进行评分,将MCTSI评分和血浆D-二聚体检测值经过Logistic回归方程得出联合检测值,并将MCTSI评分、D-二聚体检测值、联合检测值进行ROC曲线分析。结果:轻、中、重度急性胰腺炎患者血浆D-二聚体检测值及预后存在有明显差异(P <0.001),重度患者D-二聚体检测值显著高于轻、中度患者(P <0.001)。MCTSI评分和血浆D-二聚体检测值经过Logistic回归方程得出联合检测值对于患者器官功能衰竭预测的效能优于单独使用MCTSI评分及血浆D-二聚体检测值预测的效能,且其与住院天数的相关系数也最高。结论:针对急性胰腺炎患者,参照MCTSI以及D-二聚体检测值进行联合评估,可了解患者预后情况,具备较高的临床参考价值。     

Comparison of ground-based and UAV a-UHF artificial tracer mobility monitoring methods on a braided river

Radio frequency identification (RFID) technologies, which allow wireless detection of individual buried or immersed tracers, represent a step forward in sediment tracking, especially passive integrated transponders (PIT tags) that have been widely used. Despite their widespread adoption in the scientific community, they typically have low efficiency when deployed in river systems with active bedload transport or deep wet channels, attributed to their technical specifications. A recent evaluation of active ultra-high frequency transponders (a-UHF tags) assessed their larger detection range and provided a methodology for their geopositioning. In this study, we test five different survey methods (one including an unmanned aerial vehicle [UAV]) in a sediment tracking study, and compare them in terms of recovery rate, field effort, geopositioning error, and efficiency. We then tested the method on a larger reach following a Q₅ flood and performed cross-comparisons between active and passive RFIDs. The results confirmed that the a-UHF RFID technology allowed rapid (1.5 h ha⁻¹) survey of a large area (<34 ha) of emerged bars and shallow water channels with recovery of a high percentage of tracers (72%) that had travelled large distances (mean ≈ 1000 m; max ≈ 3400 m). Moreover, the tracers were identified with low geopositioning error (mean ≈ 7.1 m, ≤1% of their travel distance). We also showed that a UAV-based survey was fast (0.38 h ha⁻¹), efficient (recovery rate = 84%), and low error (mean ≈ 4.2 m). Thus, a-UHF RFID technology permits the development of a variety of survey methods, depending on the study objectives and the human and financial resources available. This allows field efforts to be optimized by determining an appropriate balance between the high equipment cost of a-UHF tracers and the resulting reduced survey costs. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地统计学用于空间不确定性的描述(英文)

Most geospatial phenomena can be interpreted probabilistically because we are ignorant of the biophysical processes and mechanisms that have jointly created and observed events. This philosophy is important because we are certain about the phenomenon under study at sampled locations, except for measurement errors, but, in between the sampled, we become uncertain about how the phenomenon behaves. Geostatistical uncertainty characterization is to generate random numbers in such a way that they simulate the outcomes of the random processes that created the existing sample data. This set of existing sample is viewed as a partially sampled realization of that random function model. The random function’s spatial variability is described by a variogram or covariance model. The realized surfaces need to honour sample data at their locations, and reflect the spatial structure quantified by the variogram models. They should each reproduce the sample histogram representative of the whole sampling area. This paper will review the fundamentals in stochastic simulation by covering univariate and indicator techniques in the hope that their applications in geospatial information science will be wide-spread and fruitful. Supported by the National 973 Program of China (No. 2006CB701302).     

干旱对河西走廊植被净初级生产力的影响

干旱对生态系统碳循环具有重要影响,随着气候变暖,全球干旱事件频率不断上升,研究干旱对植被净初级生产力的影响具有重要意义.提高植被净初级生产力(NPP)的时间分辨率是认识干旱对其影响机制的重要途径.基于5天NDVI遥感数据,以河西走廊为研究区,利用CASA模型估算2010-2015年5天步长尺度的NPP,将5天降水为零定...     

真实自回避行走中晶体生长界面结构的分形行为

晶体生长过程实际上就是生长基元从周围环境中不断地通过界面而进入晶格座位的过程。一般认为,研究生长基元以何种方式以及如何通过界面进入晶格座位是晶体生长界面结构研究中的关键。在生长基元以分子或者原子的微粒子形式在生长环境中进行无规游走的前提下,本文运用真实自回避行走(TSAW)模型,通过重整化群思想来研究晶体生长界面结构的分形行为。研究发现:晶体生长界面结构的分形行为与生长基元的游走路径形态密切相关,并且在理想状况下真实自回避行走与标准Koch曲线的分形维极为接近。     

Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model

Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of July–August–September 2003 and April–May–June 2004. The regional model is based on the Regional Spectral Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States. It is the first time that the model has been applied to a region dominated by the East Asian Monsoon. The article shows that the regional climate model, when being forced by reasonably good forecasts from a global model, can generate useful seasonal rainfall forecasts for the region, where it is dominated by the East Asia monsoon. The spatial details of the dry conditions obtained from the regional climate model forecast are also found to be comparable with the observed distribution.     

Modeling the effects of nonlinear equilibrium sorption on the transport of solute plumes in saturated heterogeneous porous media

Transport of sorbing solutes in 2D steady and heterogeneous flow fields is modeled using a particle tracking random walk technique. The solute is injected as an instantaneous pulse over a finite area. Cases of linear and Freundlich sorption isotherms are considered. Local pore velocity and mechanical dispersion are used to describe the solute transport mechanisms at the local scale. This paper addresses the impact of the degree of heterogeneity and correlation lengths of the log-hydraulic conductivity field as well as negative correlation between the log-hydraulic conductivity field and the log-sorption affinity field on the behavior of the plume of a sorbing chemical. Behavior of the plume is quantified in terms of longitudinal spatial moments: center-of-mass displacement, variance, 95% range, and skewness. The range appears to be a better measure of the spread in the plumes with Freundlich sorption because of plume asymmetry. It has been found that the range varied linearly with the travelled distance, regardless of the sorption isotherm. This linear relationship is important for extrapolation of results to predict behavior beyond simulated times and distances. It was observed that the flow domain heterogeneity slightly enhanced the spreading of nonlinearly sorbing solutes in comparison to that which occurred for the homogeneous flow domain, whereas the spreading enhancement in the case of linear sorption was much more pronounced. In the case of Freundlich sorption, this enhancement led to further deceleration of the solute plume movement as a result of increased retardation coefficients produced by smaller concentrations. It was also observed that, except for plumes with linear sorption, correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the sorption affinity fields had minimal effect on the spatial moments of solute plumes with nonlinear sorption.