Prediction and modelling of rainfall–runoff during typhoon events using a physically-based and artificial neural network hybrid model

Abstract

The accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time.     

Modelling forest snow processes with a new version of WaSiM

ABSTRACT

We present a new model extension for the Water balance Simulation Model, WaSiM, which features (i) snow interception and (ii) modified meteorological conditions under coniferous forest canopies, complementing recently developed model extensions for particular mountain hydrological processes. Two study areas in Austria and Germany are considered in this study. To supplement and constrain the modelling experiments with on-site observations, a network of terrestrial time-lapse cameras was set up in one of these catchments. The spatiotemporal patterns of snow depth inside the forest and at the adjacent open field sites were recorded along with snow interception dynamics. Comparison of observed and modelled snow cover and canopy interception indicates that the new version of WaSiM reliably reconstructs the variability of snow accumulation for both the forest and the open field. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency computed for selected runoff events in spring increases from ?0.68 to 0.71 and 0.21 to 0.87, respectively.     

新疆于田MS7.3地震主震精定位研究

新疆、青海、西藏数字地震台网和新疆和田台阵都十分清晰、完整地记录到2014年2月12日新疆于田MS7.3地震的波形,故采用区域地震台网和地震台阵联合定位的方法来精确测定该地震的震源位置。具体定位时采用了以下技术：①根据MS7.3地震震中的位置,360o等方位均匀选取台站,平均每隔约15o取1个台站参与初始定位;②将于田台的记录波形旋转至径向和切向上精确测定S波的到时,并以此控制震中距;③测定震中位置时采用的速度模型,是以震源为中心、半径约为1.0o范围内发生的历史地震资料为基础,重新拟合后获得的速度模型;④利用和田地震台阵记录的主震波形资料,经波形聚束方法处理后进行方位角测定,并以此方位角修正震中位置;⑤采用确定性方法测定震源深度。最终得到新疆于田MS7.3地震主震的震中位置为36.197oN、82.467oE,震源深度为12km,发震时刻为2014年2月12日17:19:48.2。     

北斗卫星通信在强震动台网数据传输中的应用

北斗卫星系统是中国正在实施的自主研发、独立运行的卫星定位与通信系统.因其具有短报文通信功能,进行相应的软硬件开发,可以用于传输包括烈度在内的强震动台网观测数据.通过北斗卫星传输烈度速报的性能测试和在芦山7.0级大地震中的实际应用效果,对北斗卫星系统目前在强震动台网数据传输中的应用方式和效能进行介绍.     

Announcements

Abstract

This paper investigates for a 25-year period the sediment distribution in a semi-arid Brazilian basin (2 × 10⁴ km²) with a network containing more than 4000 surface reservoirs. The methodology is based on rating curves and fitted parameters derived from field data. The results showed that suspended load corresponded to 70% of the total sediment yield (148 t km^-2 year^-1). The relatively low contribution of the suspended load (compared with other semi-arid regions) was attributed to the impact of the numerous upstream reservoirs, which retained 235 t km^-2 year^-1. The micro (<1 hm³), small (1–10 hm³), medium-sized (10–50 hm³), and large or strategic (>50 hm³) reservoirs responded to, respectively, 5, 17, 30 and 48% of the total sediment retention by the reservoir network. This indicates that retention in the non-strategic reservoirs has a positive impact on water availability, since siltation of the strategic reservoirs would be expected to more than double if only such reservoirs existed.

Citation Lima Neto, I. E., Wiegand, M. C. &; de Araújo, J. C. (2011) Sediment redistribution due to a dense reservoir network in a large semi-arid Brazilian basin. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 319–333.     

华北地区GPS监测网建设,地壳水平运动与应力场及地震活动性的关系

简要地介绍了华北地区、特别是首都圈ＧＰＳ地震监测网的布设、观测、数据处理方法案和监测精度等,较详细地分析了地壳水平形变与构造运动、应力场变化以及地震活动的性的关系。     

1992-2014年河北省流动重力资料整理

系统整理河北省1992-2014年流动重力资料,利用LGADJ数据处理软件,对每期重力数据进行单期平差、多期整体平差计算,改正历史遗留问题,利用差分结果绘制145幅流动重力等值线差分图,通过具体异常点位及重力变化分析,得出：①地震前重力场变化强度与震级大小存在相关性;②流动重力观测资料地震前具有较为明显的前兆异常反应;③地震均发生在重力变化的“0”等值线附近地区。     

Assessment of flow paths and confluences for saltwater intrusion in a deltaic river network

Saltwater intrusion is a serious issue in estuarine deltas all over the world due to rapid urban sprawl and water shortage. Therefore, detecting the major flow paths or locations at risk of saltwater intrusion in estuarine ecosystems is important for mitigating saltwater intrusion. In this paper, we introduce a centrality index, the betweenness centrality (BC), to address this problem. Using the BC as the weighted attribute of the river network, we identify the critical confluences for saltwater intrusion and detect the preferential flow paths for saltwater intrusion through the least‐cost‐path algorithm from a graph theory approach. Moreover, we analyse the responses of the BC values of confluences calculated in the river network to salinity. Our results show that the major flow paths and critical confluences for saltwater intrusion in a deltaic river network can be represented by the least cost paths and the BC values of confluences, respectively. In addition, a significant positive correlation between the BC values of confluences and salinity is determined in the Pearl River Delta. Changes in the salinity can produce significant variation in the BC values of confluences. Therefore, freshwater can be diverted into these major flow paths and critical confluences to improve river network management under saltwater intrusion. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.