Assessing changes in the above ground biomass and carbon stocks of Lidder valley,Kashmir Himalaya,India

The changes in the land use and land cover (LULC), above ground biomass (AGB) and the associated above ground carbon (AGC) stocks were assessed in Lidder Valley, Kashmir Himalaya using satellite data (1980–2013), allometric equations and phytosociological data. Change detection analysis of LULC, comprising of eight vegetation and five non-vegetation types, indicated that 6% (74.5 km²) of the dense evergreen forest has degraded. Degraded forest and settlement increased by 20 and 52.8 km², respectively. Normalized difference vegetation index was assessed and correlated with the field-based biomass estimates to arrive at best-fit models for remotely sensed AGB estimates for 2005 and 2013. Total loss of 1.018 Megatons of AGB and 0.5 Megatons of AGC was estimated from the area during 33-year period which would have an adverse effect on the carbon sequestration potential of the area which is already facing the brunt of climate change.     

近40年长株潭生态景观的人为干扰过程分析

以长株潭主城区为研究对象,综合考虑卫星遥感数据、土地利用数据以及地理国情普查数据特点建立长株潭用地类型分类系统,应用土地利用转移矩阵和景观人为干扰测度模型获取主城区用地转移矩阵和人为干扰度指数时空分布,探讨长株潭主城区生态景观与人为干扰之间的关系。结果表明:从土地利用变化角度,1978—2015年长株潭主城区耕地、园林地、建设用地发生了显著变化,耕地总体上呈持续下降趋势,从3 544.67 km~2下降到2 571.18 km~2,园林地呈现先下降后升高的变化趋势,总体下降177.89 km~2;建设用地呈持续上升趋势,从80.56 km~2增加到1 252.85 km~2;在1994—2000年和2010—2015年长株潭主城区土地利用变化两个典型阶段,建设用地的增加主要通过占用耕地和园林地的方式实现。景观人为干扰指数时空分析表明:1978—2015年长株潭主城区景观人为干扰指数高值区主要集中在中心城市和其周边地区,在人类活动的影响下,中心城区以耕地、园林地向建设用地转移为主,周边地区主要以耕地和园林地的相互转移为主;随着城市化进程持续加快,人类活动对主城区生态景观的影响总体呈加强趋势,且受人类活动干扰主要集中在中心城区。     

HJ-1卫星CCD影像的土地利用自动分类及精度分析——以广西钦北区为例

为研究环境一号小卫星影像在土地利用研究领域的应用潜能,本文以广西钦北区为例,对其进行计算机监督分类,在评定监督分类模板精度的前提下,参照第二次全国土地调查农村数据库,对计算机监督分类结果进行精度评定,最后利用计算机自动地将分类结果发送到实地进行野外验证,并对分类的结果进行全面、准确的评价,以此证明提升环境一号CCD影像自动分类精度和准确度能满足土地利用现状调查的要求。     

Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways

In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO₂). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis.     

Unpacking ecosystem service bundles: Towards predictive mapping of synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services

Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysical drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science.Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge.     

Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices

Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand- and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshwater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km³ yr⁻¹). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19–36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26–69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies.     

Past and future carbon sequestration benefits of China’s grain for green program

Carbon sequestration through ecological restoration programs is an increasingly important option to reduce the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. China’s Grain for Green Program (GGP) is likely the largest centrally organized land-use change program in human history and yet its carbon sequestration benefit has yet to be systematically assessed. Here we used seven empirical/statistical equations of forest biomass carbon sequestration and five soil carbon change models to estimate the total and decadal carbon sequestration potentials of the GGP during 1999–2050, including changes in four carbon pools: aboveground biomass, roots, forest floor and soil organic carbon. The results showed that the total carbon stock in the GGP-affected areas was 682 Tg C in 2010 and the accumulative carbon sink estimates induced by the GGP would be 1697, 2635, 3438 and 4115 Tg C for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively. Overall, the carbon sequestration capacity of the GGP can offset about 3%–5% of China’s annual carbon emissions (calculated using 2010 emissions) and about 1% of the global carbon emissions. Afforestation by the GGP contributed about 25% of biomass carbon sinks in global carbon sequestration in 2000–2010. The results suggest that large-scale ecological restoration programs such as afforestation and reforestation could help to enhance global carbon sinks, which may shed new light on the carbon sequestration benefits of such programs in China and also in other regions.     

Geologically constrained changes to landforms caused by human activities in the 20th century: A case study from Fukuoka Prefecture,Japan

Human activity has been recognized to be an important geomorphic agent, and the resulting changes to landforms and land cover are regarded as a global problem. Although there has been much research into the relationships between geomorphic processes and types of land use such as agriculture, mining, and urbanization, it is important to clarify spatiotemporal human impacts on topography on a regional scale when predicting future changes in land cover.This study examined changes in land use to clarify the distribution and impact of anthropogenic changes to landforms, as well as the influence of geology on the extent of these changes. In a case study from Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan, changes in land use over the last century were analyzed using a geographic information system (GIS). The study area, which covers approximately 4930 km², has experienced urban development since 1950 and has a current population of over 5 million. Land use data were prepared using paper-based early editions of topographic maps. Subsequently, the distribution of anthropogenic landforms was evaluated by comparing landforms with regional geological data.GIS analysis using our prepared land use data, landform data, and regional geological data has clarified the following characteristics of the study area. (1) Land uses prior to 1950 were constrained by topographic relief. After 1950, land use was characterized by urban sprawl. Urban areas expanded and contained both higher elevations and steeper slopes at their margins. The relationships between land uses and landforms during this urbanization are unclear. (2) The area of urban land increased in the geological regions with Paleogene sedimentary rocks (PSD) and Mesozoic granitic rocks (GR) during the 20th century. The largest coal mining area in Japan was located in the PSD geological regions, and ancient iron working was common in the GR geological regions, particularly during the 7th century. This result indicates that the land use distribution, especially urban areas in sloping terrain, is related to the regional geology. (3) Deforestation related to land use resulted in steeper terrain in forest land in the PSD and GR geological regions. These changes to landforms in forest areas occurred as a result of rapid urban sprawl and have created many new boundaries between forest areas with steeper slopes and urban areas with gentler slopes. This phenomenon may have caused an increase in the frequency of sediment-related disasters.This case study indicates that predictions of anthropogenic changes to landform, which are important for the assessment of global climate change and natural hazards, must clarify the relationships between land uses, landforms, and regional geology.     

Four decades of urban sprawl and population growth in Teresina,Brazil

The expansion of medium-sized cities in Brazil has increased significantly since the 80–90's decades. In that period, most of the urbanization process was represented by the agglomeration of the population in the major metropolitan areas such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Nowadays, the rural-urban movement in Brazil is predominantly affecting cities with less than 1 million inhabitants, located particularly in the Center-West and in the Semiarid Northeast regions. The city of Teresina, the capital and largest city of the Brazilian state of Piauí, is one example that has shown an accelerated process of urban development. In this context, this paper seeks to discuss the urban sprawl of Teresina over the last four decades (1974–2014), associating its trends of urban expansion and population growth with their social and environmental implications. The results of our work indicate that urban sprawl in Teresina has been continuous over the years and getting faster in the 2010–2014 period. High demographic density areas are located mostly in peripheral zones, where the low-income population dominates. The population density varies across the city, and it is far from the standard proposed by the urban legislation. Thus, urbanization in Teresina is characterized by the sprawl of its municipal boundaries, intra-urban densification and verticalization, and an increase in population, especially in areas of low-income neighborhoods.     

Linked to Landscape: Assessing Urbanization in Germany through Landscape and Economic Factors

The ongoing encroachment of urban land into natural landscapes has resulted in the degradation of ecosystems throughout Europe. Understanding why the share of urban land has increased is important for managing urban growth and maintaining ecosystem services. We estimate a model of landscape change that integrates geospatial and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban growth observed in Germany between 2000 and 2006. In doing so, we test several determinants of urbanization identified by theoretical frameworks from landscape ecology and economics, including landscape pattern and transit infrastructure. The results show that despite planning guidelines and policies to promote dense development, urban growth has been extensive. Regions with a high degree of fragmented land and the prevalence of environmental amenities are characterized by particularly strong growth, pointing to challenges in crafting landscape policies that balance economic development with environmental conservation.