长江沿线样带土地利用变化时空模拟及其对策

短时期(几年或几十年)的土地利用变化,主要受社会经济因素的驱动和自然因素的约束。各类土地利用变化基本上都能从与人类生产活动密切相关的耕地和城乡建设用地的变化上得到反映。利用修订后的GTR模型,对长江沿线样带未来30年的土地利用变化进行了模拟。研究发现,东部地区的耕地面积将进一步减少,而全区的耕地和建设用地面积将增加。根据研究区未来土地利用变化的时空特点,提出了相关应对策略,以利于区域土地持续利用的实现     

环渤海地区土地利用变化的驱动力分析

1985到1995年间,环渤海地区占总面积30%的土地发生了利用方式的变化,耕地变化是其核心类型。耕地变化的主要流向依次为农村居住用地、林草地、城市居住建设用地以及果园和水域。本文通过对耕地流向及其与人口变化、农业经济发展的关系等进行分析,确认土地管理政策、人均居住用地的增长、农业生产结构调整以及城市扩张是该区土地利用变化的主要驱动因素     

苏南地区土地利用结构变化分析

利用航片、城市平面图及城市用地调查等资料，分析了苏锡常地区城镇用地扩展和结构变化特点，发现苏南地区城镇用地扩展及土地利用结构变化呈现为以下特征：大城市用地扩展速度由80年代前的缓慢发展转变为80年代后的快速发展，其主导因素是新区开发建设；其用地结构变化以居住及公建性用地扩展占用地扩展的第一位，工业用地扩展由80年代前第一位退居第二位。县城镇的用地发展基本与大城市相同，但其发展速度快，工业用地扩展居次的时间也比大城市迟。小城镇的大量兴起和小城镇用地的大规模扩展造成苏南乡村景观巨变，其主因是乡镇企业的异军突起；目前用地扩展居主导地位的仍是工业用地的扩展。交通用地的扩大及耕地面积的减少是苏南区域用地景观80年代以来的变化主流。     

Sensitivity of the river Rhine discharge to environmental change,a first tentative assessment

Changes in climatic conditions may have great impact on the distribution of available water in space and time. However the results of models that describe future climate conditions are still insufficient to be used in regional hydrological simulation studies. This article describes a first tentative estimation of the sensitivity of discharge of the river Rhine to two environmental changes. Firstly, to a change in snow covered area due to a rise of 4°C in winter temperature in the upland part (Alps) of the drainage area and, secondly, to a large land use change in the lowland area (Federal Republic of Germany/France). ‘Worst case’ scenarios for discharge of the river Rhine under warmer conditions give a reduction of 10 percent for the summer discharge at Rees (Dutch/German border). The results of the estimations indicate that the reduction of the summer discharge in a warmer world could be larger.     

“规土融合”的技术体系、管理模式创新及发展展望——以武汉市为例

在"多规合一"发展的背景下,以武汉为例,聚焦城市规划与土地利用规划融合("规土融合")在地方层面的实施路径与发展目标。系统梳理了其在体系结构、技术语言、信息平台等方面的技术革新策略,同时概括出管理模式创新中协调成本内部化、转变政府角色、倡导交往理性、加快接轨市场等有益尝试。此外,强调武汉实践中"两规"与"规-土"的内涵差异,丰富对规划融合发展目标的认识,以期为相关地方实践带来有益启示,也为宏观规划体系改革提供自下而上的思考视角。     

主题公园周边土地利用动态变化及其驱动机制——以常州中华恐龙园为例

以常州中华恐龙园为研究对象,选取该处土地利用重要变化节点2000—2010年为研究时段,利用GIS/RS手段,从土地利用变化速度、土地利用扩展强度和土地利用转移方向等方面对中华恐龙园周边土地利用变化时空特征进行定量分析。结果显示:2000—2010年中华恐龙园周边10 km缓冲区内各种土地利用类型均有较大变化,随着缓冲区范围的扩大,其建设用地变化速率变缓,相比而言,2005—2010年间的变化强度和规模比2000—2005年间大。研究区内建设用地变化与中华恐龙园的发展水平呈显著相关。依托区域形象、人文环境、人口集聚等保障因素,在政府金融、财税、土地等政策的引导下和各项经济因素的推动下,主题公园周边的土地实现了功能转变、价值提升且土地利用方式朝着集约化的方向发展。     

昆明市土地利用变化的强度分析与稳定性研究

在遥感、地理信息系统和统计定量分析结合的基础上,引进土地利用变化强度分析理论方法。作为一种解释性的数学框架,通过不同时间间隔的土地利用转移矩阵计算了每个时间间隔和每种地类的变化面积和变化强度。强度分析自上而下分为3个层次：间隔层次、地类层次和转变层次,将观察变化强度与平均变化强度比较,揭示不同层次的变化特征,并依次用快速的与缓慢的、活跃的与平稳的、来源与转变三对术语来描述。本文以昆明市的土地利用变化为例,深入阐述了不同层次的面积变化和强度变化,并对不同层次的稳定性进行了深入分析。结果表明：在间隔层次,2000年后昆明市的土地利用变化强度逐渐加大;在地类层次,建设用地的变化强度是最活跃的,林地的变化强度是最平稳的;在转变层次,增加的建设用地主要来源于耕地,减少的林地主要转变为草地。强度分析在土地利用变化过程分析中具有系统性的优势,对深入挖掘土地利用变化信息、理解土地利用变化过程具有重要作用。     

Remote-sensing data reveals the response of soil erosion intensity to land use change in Loess Plateau,China

Developing an effective approach to rapidly assess the effects of restoration projects on soil erosion intensity and their extensive spatial and temporal dynamics is important for regional ecosystem management and the development of soil conservation strategies in the future. This study applied a model that was developed at the pixel scale using water soil erosion indicators (land use, vegetation coverage and slope) to assess the soil erosion intensity in the Loess Plateau, China. Landsat TM/ETM+ images in 2000, 2005 and 2010 were used to produce land use maps based on the object-oriented classification method. The MODIS product MOD13Q1 was adopted to derive the vegetation coverage maps. The slope gradient maps were calculated based on data from the digital elevation model. The area of water soil-eroded land was classified into six grades by integrating slope gradients, land use and vegetation coverage. Results show that the Grain-To-Green Project in the Loess Plateau worked based on the land use changes from 2000 to 2010 and enhanced vegetation restoration and ecological conservation. These projects effectively prevented soil erosion. During this period, lands with moderate, severe, more severe and extremely severe soil erosion intensities significantly decreased and changed into less severe levels, respectively. Lands with slight and light soil erosion intensities increased. However, the total soil-eroded area in the Loess Plateau was reduced. The contributions of the seven provinces to the total soil-eroded area in the Loess Plateau and the composition of the soil erosion intensity level in each province are different. Lands with severe, more severe and extremely severe soil erosion intensities are mainly distributed in Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu and Inner Mongolia. These areas, although relatively small, must be prioritised and preferentially treated.     

基于LUCC的张家界市生态补偿研究

本文基于张家界市土地利用/土地覆盖变化,通过改进的生态系统服务价值与生态足迹的方法,测算了研究区域的生态补偿额度。研究表明:(1)从2001~2013年张家界市各县(区)生态系统服务价值变化率来看,永定区呈下降态势;增幅最大的是武陵源区,其次是桑植县,慈利县增幅最小。(2)2013年张家界市的人均生态足迹为1.3625 hm~2,而实际生态承载力为0.9556 hm~2,人均可利用生态承载力为0.8409 hm~2,则人均生态赤字为-0.5215 hm~2。(3)计算出了张家界市各县(区)的生态补偿标准,其中慈利县需要支付的生态补偿量最高,为18.61亿元;其次是永定区,为10.49亿元;再次是武陵源区,为582.12万元;最小的是桑植县,为359.70万元。评价结果将促进张家界市生态环境保护和经济社会的可持续发展。     

Design Method,Application and Time Alternative Mechanism of Flexible Use of Airspace

The flexible use of airspace and its practice are the key components of next generation air transportation system and the important technical support of reconstructing the national airspace in Europe, Japan and other countries. On the basis of overview and comprehensive cognition of the generation, implementation and aims of flexible use of airspace, the design methods of sector’s boundary changes were evaluated. Then, from the perspective of “sector-closed”, the effect on sector boundary changes was evaluated, and the time alternative mechanism in flexible use of airspace was revealed. The research shows that “Algorithm+Manual Dynamic Boundary Change” can be a method for better distribution and balancing the unbalanced traffic demand across regions, which will also promote the airspace development and capacity release. The flexible use of airspace based on ICTs realizes the replacement of the factor of space by the factor of time, which enhances the flexibility of airspace configuration and the changing of air routes to the maximun extent. The methods and applications of flexible use of airspace will be not only beneficial to establishing the whole national airspace system and utilization, but also to promoting geography research on airspace resources development and the studies on connection between air and land.