我省城市水资源紧缺问题及其对策探讨

解决我省城市水资源紧缺问题有以下对策：①建立水资源管理模型，实施最优化开采方案；②防治水污染，实行废水资源化，对城市工业废水净化处理再利用；③实行地表水地下水相互调剂；④拦蓄降水和地表弃水，开发人工补给，建立地下水库；⑤建立节水型社会生产体系。     

Where Should the Start Zone Be Located for Xiong’an New Area? A Land Use Perspective

China announced plans on April 1, 2017 to create Xiong’an New Area, a new economic zone about 110 km southwest of Beijing. The new area of national significance covers the three counties of Xiongxian, Rongcheng and Anxin in Hebei Province, and is home to Baiyangdian, a major wetland in northern China. It will cover around 100 km² initially (called “Starting Zone”) and will be expanded to 200 km² in the mid-term and about 2000 km² in the long term. In this context, it is important to assess the land use pattern for the new area’s planning and development. Based on remote sensing interpretation of Landsat OLI images, we examine the current land use features, the potential for built-up land saving and intensive use, and the spatial variation of arable land quality. The results indicate that the arable lands, built-up lands and wetlands account for around 60%, 20% and 10%, respectively. The potential for rural built-up land saving and intensive use is quite large. The arable land quality and use intensity in Rongcheng and Anxin counties are much better than that of Xiongxian. The pros and cons for three potential options for the Starting Zone are listed and compared. The eastern area of Rongcheng county, to the north of Baiyangdian, is believed to be the most suitable Starting Zone. Policy recommendations for built-up land expansion, farmland saving and flood risk mitigation for Xiong’an New Area are also proposed in this paper.     

Assessment of efficiency and potentiality of agricultural resources in Central Asia

This paper quantitatively analyzes the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources in Central Asia by calculating the consumption coefficient of the main resources, including arable land, water and fertilizers. The results of these investigations reveal the following: (1) The average consumption coefficients of cultivated land resources in Central Asia are much higher than the world average value of up to 7.74 m²/kg, which is 3.6 times that of China, suggesting that the cultivated land resource consumption coefficient of cultivated land resource utilization efficiency is low in the Central Asian region. (2) Up to 80% of available water Central Asia is about 9.43 m³/kg, or nearly 9.3 times the average value elsewhere in Asia, indicating that agricultural water use efficiency in this region is very low and water resources are wasted. (3) The fertilizer consumption coefficient in Central Asia is 0.035 kg/kg, which is close to the world average, but the utilization efficiency of fertilizer is relatively high. Therefore, in the future development of agriculture, Central Asia should pay more attention to the management of agricultural water resources in order to improve the utilization efficiency of these resources as well as that of arable land.     

Exploring the potential of circular economy to mitigate pressures on biodiversity

The effects of circular economy on biodiversity are poorly understood. This study provides observations on approaches for assessing circular economy and illustrates, with a Finnish case study, the potential of circular economy to mitigate pressures on biodiversity. The case study focuses on the construction and real estate sectors, as well as the forest industry. The findings imply that circular economy actions that reduce the extraction of virgin raw materials and relieve land use pressures are effective. Improving material efficiency, increasing the cascading use of wood, and optimizing the use and reuse of materials and products, as well as extending the lifetime of buildings and optimizing space use, have good potential for mitigating pressures on biodiversity in Finland. However, as forest utilization has a major impact on Finnish biodiversity, certain actions that possibly increase the use of forest resources (e.g., replacing fossil-based, concrete, or steel materials with wood-based solutions) may impair biodiversity if biodiversity-enhancing forest management practices are not utilized. Assessing the biodiversity impacts of circular economy is challenging, and the need for further research and the development of indicators and assessment methods is clear.     

纳入空间自相关的FLUS模型在土地利用变化多情景模拟中的应用

FLUS模型是一种新型的土地利用变化模拟模型,应用前景广阔。本文通过在FLUS模型的人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network,ANN)训练模块中引入空间自相关因子来改进模型,以珠江三角洲地区为例,基于2009年、2015年土地利用数据和一系列驱动因子对改进的模型进行了验证,并利用该改进的FLUS模型模拟了2035年研究区在3种情景下土地利用变化格局。结果表明:①引入空间自相关因子后各地类发生概率分布的预测精度更高,耕地、林地、建设用地、水体和未利用土地的拟合优度ROC值分别从0.819、0.928、0.885、0.855和0.861提高到0.857、0.934、0.890、0.863和0.978;②改进的FLUS模型的模拟精度有一定的提高,Kappa系数从0.732提高到0.744,FOM系数从0.077升到0.106;③情景模拟表明,3种情景下珠江三角洲建设用地和林地均将增加、而耕地均呈减少趋势。但不同情景下模拟的土地利用格局也存在显著差异:基准情景下,建设用地明显扩张且大幅侵占耕地。耕地保护情景下,耕地面积保持在合理水平,建设用地蔓延扩张趋势得到遏制,土地利用布局总体趋向合理。生态保护情景下,耕地、林地和水体得到较好保护,建设用地布局更为合理,土地利用可持续性明显提高。     

基于地理探测器的中国中部城市土地绿色利用效率时空演变及影响因素研究

中部崛起战略后,中国中部六省（湖北省、湖南省、安徽省、山西省、江西省和河南省）经济快速发展,建成区面积不断扩张,不仅威胁粮食安全,更加剧资源环境约束。在此背景下,本文采用2007—2018年中部六省80个地级市面板数据,并运用Malmquist-Luerberger指数、重心模型、空间计量模型和地理探测器模型分析中部六省80个地级市土地绿色利用效率时演变、重心移动轨迹变化及其影响因素情况。结果表明：① 2007—2018年中部六省土地绿色利用效率增长是靠技术进步“单轨驱动”的。② 城市土地绿色利用效率值表现出明显的空间分异特征,且重心总体向东北方向移动。③ 中部六省各地级市之间土地绿色利用效率存在空间依赖性和空间溢出效应。④ 除城市建设用地面积外,城镇化率、产业结构高级化水平、经济发展水平、外商直接投资额均正向影响中部六省80个地级市土地绿色利用效率。其中,各个影响因素对土地绿色利用效率的影响从强到弱依次为产业结构高级化水平、外商直接投资额、建设用地面积、城镇化率、经济发展水平。     

基于多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的西北农牧交错带土地利用优化配置

西北农牧交错带生态环境脆弱,区位特殊性和生态重要性使其在我国社会经济发展和生态环境保护方面具有重要战略意义。通过对该区域进行土地利用优化配置,使有限的土地资源支撑起生态环境保护和经济发展的重任是本文的出发点。多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的应用可以从多方面（数量结构、空间布局、综合效益）完善土地利用优化配置,为土地利用优化配置提供更多的选择方案。本文选用多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型对该区域进行2025年的土地利用变化模拟,通过设置自然发展、生态保护优先、经济发展优先、生态-经济均衡4种情景,探讨了如何在兼顾生态环境保护与社会经济发展的情况下进行土地利用的优化配置。结果表明,基于生态-经济均衡情景下的优化方案,土地利用类型的数量结构和空间布局更为合理,其综合效益优于另外3种情景。该情景在合理限制经济发展速度的前提下,使生态建设获得稳定发展,其经济效益较生态保护优先情景下增长了8.96%,生态效益较经济发展优先情景下增长了0.77%,在生态保护与经济发展2种目标之间达到平衡,为西北农牧交错带的土地利用规划提供了决策辅助。     

“一带一路”区域水电站工程生态环境影响遥感监测

为实现“一带一路”区域可持续发展,我国倡导绿色、低碳、循环、可持续的生产生活方式,建设绿色“一带一路”。遥感技术在生态环境监测与评价方面具有重要作用。本文以“一带一路”区域中国援建的水电站工程为研究对象,基于陆地系列卫星(Landsat)、哨兵2号（Sentinel-2）等遥感对地观测数据,利用决策树与缓冲区分析等方法,从水电站库区概况、水电站对植被生长状况与生态资源影响等方面,开展“一带一路”区域水电站项目建设对当地经济发展和生态环境影响的遥感监测及分析。本文首先根据遥感影像与DEM确定库区及库容,结合最小外接正方形面积比及平均宽度等指标确定各水电站缓冲区类型和范围。利用NDWI及NDVI构建决策树模型,提取各缓冲区土地利用类型,分为水体、林地、草地、耕地和其它5类;结合区域植被覆盖度,估算库区生态占用并对水电站建成前后的土地利用类型和植被变化进行分析。研究结果表明：① “一带一路”沿线10座水电站造成的生态损失与库区面积呈正相关,不同工程间,在水体、林地、草地、耕地和其它方面的损失面积大小存在较大差异;② 土地利用类型与植被覆盖度年均变化幅度约为0.35%、1.27%,水电站修建对周边生态资源与植被生长状况影响较小,同时在植被覆盖度较低的地区水电站的修建会明显改善周边环境;③ 各水电站周边的植被覆盖度差异较大,大部分水电站周边植被生长状况良好;④ 水电站建设始终坚持工程建设与环境保护并重,从施工设计到水电站后期维护期间,积极采取环保措施,减少占用,保护生物多样性,生态风险防范得当;⑤ 水电站提供了优质的清洁能源,促进了当地经济和社会发展。     

An agent-based simulation model of a primitive agricultural society

The paper describes a model of an agricultural society in which agents live in a single settlement and use the surrounding area to produce essential and non-essential goods. Agents make, and attempt to fulfil, consumption and production plans but markets do not always clear and goods can change hands at different prices between different pairs of agents. The model generates a wide range of agricultural landscapes, including those of a classical von Thünen economy. Demographically, it produces outcomes varying from logistic growth to periodic collapse caused by cyclical famines.     

Assessing land use and land cover change in the Wassa West District of Ghana using remote sensing

Vast tracts of forests are lost globally every year especially in the developing countries of the tropics due to various human activities such as lumbering, farming, bush fires, surface mining and urbanization. The rainforest in Ghana has experienced rapid depletion since the 1980s. The impact of deforestation is widespread, affecting the livelihoods of local people and disrupting the tropical ecosystem. There is a serious concern in the study area about climatic change, soil erosion, siltation of rivers and loss in biodiversity which have an adverse impact on traditional medicinal plants of the local people. The study examined the extent of land cover change through image differencing of Landsat TM 1986 and 2002. The image classification indicated that, vegetative cover from 1986 to 2002 has been reducing whiles land use activities have been increasing. Closed canopy, open canopy and plantation have significantly diminished and land use activities especially built ups, farms, mining and openfields are more than doubled. The driving forces for the change in land cover are population growth, lumbering, socio-economic and cultural practices of the people. Lumbering and mining have been some of the major causes of the changing landscape in primary forest. Also the reliance on wood for domestic energy and the need to increase food productivity to feed growing population have also contributed greatly to the rapid depletion of the vegetative cover.