长江三角洲环境地质调查评价GIS管理系统建设初探

长江三角洲是一个人口稠密、经济高度发达的地区 ,该区地质结构复杂、环境地质条件十分脆弱 ,长期以来因过量开采地下水 ,形成大面积区域性水位降落漏斗 ,诱发了相当严重的地面沉降、地裂缝等地质灾害 ,给当地经济可持续发展带来严重威胁。本文从开展长江三角洲环境地质调查评价的现实意义出发 ,探讨了长江三角洲环境地质调查评价GIS管理系统的系统目标、开发模式以及实现步骤 ,概括介绍了系统所应具有的功能 ,为长江三角洲项目信息系统建设提出了一条可行性思路。     

准噶尔盆地西北缘侏罗系储层

准噶尔盆地西北缘侏罗系陆相碎屑岩储层的岩性差异较大，岩性对物性的控制作用明显。储层的孔隙类型多样，不同类型的孔隙在发育规模、丰度及有效性方面都存在显差异，次生溶蚀孔隙、原生粒间孔隙和残余粒间孔隙是最重要的有效孔隙类型。储层渗透率与孔隙度之间存在较好的半对数相关关系。通过设置一定的孔隙度和渗透率参数界线，对储层储集性能进行评价，将侏罗系储层的孔渗性能划分为5个级别，可与当前流行的砂岩储层孔渗性能分级相对应。通过对大量压汞参数样本的聚类分析，将储层的孔隙结构划分为4个类型。通过各类参数统计及曲线形态对比，对孔隙结构类型进行了定量结合定性的优劣评价。最后，结合孔渗性能级别、储集空间类型、孔隙结构类型、岩性等特征，对准噶尔盆地西北缘侏罗系储层进行了综合分类评价。     

Numerical evaluation of the damping‐solvent extraction method in the frequency domain

The damping‐solvent extraction method for the analysis of unbounded visco‐elastic media is evaluated numerically in the frequency domain in order to investigate the influence of the computational parameters—domain size, amount of artificial damping, and mesh density—on the accuracy of results. An analytical estimate of this influence is presented, and specific questions regarding the influence of the parameters on the results are answered using the analytical estimate and numerical results for two classical problems: the rigid strip and rigid disc footings on a visco‐elastic half‐space with constant hysteretic material damping. As the domain size is increased, the results become more accurate only at lower frequencies, but are essentially unaffected at higher frequencies. Choosing the domain size to ensure that the static stiffness is computed accurately leads to an unnecessarily large domain for analysis at higher frequencies. The results improve by increasing artificial damping but at a slower rate as the total (material plus artificial) damping ratio ζ_t gets closer to 0.866. However, the results do not deteriorate significantly for the larger amounts of artificial damping, suggesting that ζ_t≈0.6 is appropriate; a larger value is not likely to influence the accuracy of results. Presented results do not support the earlier suggestion that similar accuracy can be achieved by a large bounded domain with small damping or by a small domain with larger damping. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

The fall and rise of metropolitan government in Copenhagen

In this paper it is argued that the re-establishment of a metropolitan government in the Greater Copenhagen Area in 2000 (Greater Copenhagen Authority) is not to be seen as a return to the kind of regional, coordinative authority (Greater Copenhagen Council) that was abolished in the Thatcherite climate of the 1980s. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s new forms of urban governance, entrepreneurialism and a higher national priority to the capital region were introduced, which changed the conditions under which the new metropolitan government is operating. This `contextualization' of the analysis of the two generations of metropolitan government points to the fact that typologies of metropolitan government, such as the one put forward by Sharpe (1995), often lacks analytical cogency. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Milan: The city of constant renewal

Traditional models of urban development are no longer adequate to describe current metropolitan transformations. These are now at the centre of a debate concerning management and administration. In Italy, delays in resolving problems of urban and metropolitan government, despite the legal framework provided by Law 142/90, have weighed heavily on the larger urban areas of the country: Rome, Naples, Milan, which have not been able to tackle the issue of metropolitan government. Recent legislation, while not providing a pre-defined institutional solution, allows separate administrative districts to collectively establish metropolitan institutions of `variable geometry'. The Milan urban area is not one city, but a system of mutually-dependent cities, linked to each other and the rest of the world by a transport network still requiring much investment. The vitality of its economic structure (especially its small firms) is held back by seriously inadequate infrastructure and low external economic efficiency. The provincial capital may boast `historic centrality' but the most interesting potential for development is to be found on the periphery and in the administrative districts immediately surrounding it, in the recovery of derelict industrial areas and dormitory towns established in the 1950s and 1960s, especially to the north. Recovery of derelict areas, green areas, and better transport links within the urban area and with the outside world are the key elements in the reorganization of `Greater Milan'. In this situation of rapid transformation the most appropriate political strategies involve negotiated planning. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seismic evaluation of existing nuclear facility using ambient vibration test to characterize dynamic behavior of the structure and microtremor measurements to characterize the soil: a case study

The methods used for a building seismic hazard evaluation are presented with the associated results. The goals of the study are (1) to check the soil nature and the existence or not of a possible site effect around the installation and (2) to characterize the dynamic behavior of the building using ambient vibration records.

The results of the soil study with the Nakamura method are very difficult to interpret because they are not stable in space and time. The spectral ratios method has been used with regional earthquake records. The results of the application of this method allowed us to conclude that the installation was free of site effect.

The ambient vibration measurements on the building brought the conclusion to determine the first and second modes of the structure. These results have been used to calibrate numerical model. The modal shapes in plan (high roof) and in elevation (main column) have been evaluated. The damping of the building has been computed using ambient vibration records.     

探测大城市活断层的地球物理方法

简要地介绍了开展大城市地震活断层探测的意义及世界各国开展活断层探测的基本情况。城市及邻近地区地震活断层引起的直下型地震 ,将会给大城市造成巨大的地震灾害。准确地探测出大城市的活断层分布 ,采取有效措施 ,可大大降低地震时的损失。文中重点介绍了开展地震活断层探测的地球物理方法的类型和主要特点 ,在区域探查与初步鉴定阶段、详细探测与精确定位阶段、孕震构造探测阶段可能涉及到的各种地球物理探测方法、适用范围及所能解决的主要问题     

An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability

Introduction There have been nearly 40 years for earthquake prediction since the research on earthquake prediction was carried out in plan by some advanced countries since 1960s. For the hard long process of earthquake prediction, Alen, American famous scientist and former president of the evaluation commission of earthquake prediction in California, USA, said that the difficulty of earthquake prediction is more than the expected and the practical progress of earthquake prediction is more sl…     

金沙江干热河谷土地荒漠化评价方法研究

什么样的退化土地才是荒漠化土地，土地荒漠化的发生发展以及程度和区别等问题的定量确定，至今有关报道甚少。干热河谷是我国西南地区特殊的生态环境类型，自然资源丰富，但土地荒漠化问题十分突出，这一现象的定量认识尤为重要。针对土地景观生态系统的复杂和模糊性，在建立评价指标的基础上，采用模糊综合评判的方法，对土地荒漠化程度进行定量评价，为荒漠化土地的预防和防治提供科学依据和决策支持。