Paleo-earthquake studies on the eastern section of the Kunlun fault

Introduction East Kunlun active fault is one of the largest sinistral slip fault zones in northern Tibetan Pla-teau. The fault tails primarily after the ancient eastern Kunlun suture zone, which was reactivatedby the northward subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate. The western end of thefault starts near the western flank of the Buxedaban peak in Qinghai Province. The fault then ex-tends eastwards through the Kusai Lake, Xidatan, Dongdatan, Alag Lake, Tuosuo Lak…     

AUV地形匹配导航快速收敛滤波

地形匹配定位（terrain aided position,TAP）的似然函数反映了AUV（autonomous underwater vehicle）的位置在空间中的分布概率,由于地形的强非线性、随机性以及测量误差的非高斯分布使得似然函数也表现出非高斯分布的特点。TAP的误差与局部地形特征和地形测量误差密切相关,由于现有的方法未考虑局部地形特征,仅考虑了测量误差的统计置信区间,使得TAP置信区间的估计结果明显偏小。为解决TAP置信区间的估计问题,建立了TAP定位点的跳变模型。设TAP定位点X^p可以向搜索区间内任一点跳变,且向某一点的跳变概率与该点的似然函数值正相关,X^p向某一点跳变的置信度小于α时,认为x^α不会向该点跳变,该点设为置信区间的边界点。另外,设地形匹配定位点的置信区间内匹配残差平方和函数为二次曲面,而X^p视为该曲面的待估计参数,则可以通过曲面参数的置信区间估计方法获得1-α置信度下的置信区间。新方法得到的置信区间范围大于现有的估计方法,试验结果表明,测量波束较少时,置信区间估计会出现异常,增加测量波束可以提高潮差和测量误差的估计精度,从而提高置信区间的估计精度,但测量误差非高斯分布条件下的补偿方法仍然需要进一步研究。     

Bankfull Discharge Recurrence Interval in Gravel-bed Rivers

Bankfull discharge was identified in some 30 gravel-bed rivers representing in total c. 40 gauging stations. The catchment sizes cary from 4km² to nearly 2700km². Bankfull discharge value increases with basin size. In the case of gravel-bed rivers developed on an impermeable substratum, the following equation emerges: Q_b=0·087 A^1·044. Bankfull discharge recurrence interval was determined by fitting maximum annual floods (T_a) into Gumbel's distribution and then using the partial duration series (T_p) in this same distribution. Recurrence interval is below 0·7 years (T_p) for small pebble-bed rivers developed on an impermeable substratum; it reaches 1·1 to 1·5 years when the catchment size of these rivers exceeds 250km². Rivers incised in the soft schists of the Famenne show larger channel capacity at bankfull stage, a small width/depth ratio and thus higher recurrence intervals (1·4–5·3 years with T_a and 1–4·4 years with T_p). Baseflow-dominated gravel-bed streams and sandy or silty rivers experience less frequent bankfull discharges, with a recurrence interval higher than 2 or even 3 years (T_p). © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于区间树索引的等高线提取算法

重新设计了从高程格网中提取等高线过程中的遍历策略,以保证提取结果具有统一的方向;针对日益增长的高程格网数据量,提出了基于区间树索引来查找等高线起点的算法。     

Clustering of temporal event processes

A temporal point process is a sequence of points, each representing the occurrence time of an event. Each temporal point process is related to the behavior of an entity. As a result, clustering of temporal point processes can help differentiate between entities, thereby revealing patterns of behaviors. This study proposes a hierarchical cluster method for clustering temporal point processes based on the discrete Fréchet (DF) distance. The DF cluster method is divided into four steps: (1) constructing a DF similarity matrix between temporal point processes; (2) constructing a complete linkage hierarchical tree based on the DF similarity matrix; (3) clustering the point processes with a threshold determined by locating the local maxima on the curve of the pseudo-F statistic (an index which measures the separability between clusters and the compactness in clusters); and (4) identifying inner patterns for each cluster formed by a series of dense intervals, each of which contains at least one event of all processes of the cluster. The contributions of the article are: (1) the proposed DF cluster method can cluster temporal point processes into different groups and (2) more importantly, it can identify the inner pattern of each cluster. Two synthetic data sets were created to illustrate the DF distance between temporal point process clusters (the first data set) and validate the proposed DF cluster method (the second data set), respectively. An experiment and a comparison with a method based on dynamic time warping show that DF cluster successfully identifies the preconfigured patterns in the second synthetic data set. The cluster method was then applied to a population migration history data set for the Northern Plains of the United States, revealing some interesting population migration patterns.     

上海地区不同重现期的风速估算研究

基于上海气象站历史风速观测资料,采用极值I型和皮尔逊III型分布估算了上海市不同重现期最大风速的时间变化以及各区（县）不同重现期最大和极大风速的空间分布。结果表明,1901~2011年,上海市10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速分别为21.0、24.9、26.7和29.2 m/s。1974~2011年期间,上海各区（县）10 m高度10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速都是以南部沿海地区南汇或金山最大,分别为19.0、21.4、22.6和24.1 m/s;各重现期极大风速也是以南汇或金山最大,分别为32.3、36.4、38.4和41.0 m/s。中心城区各重现期的最大和极大风速都最小。     

山东半岛石笋记录的倒数第二次冰消期δ18O变化特征及其气候环境意义

文章基于山东半岛岩溶洞穴(上小峰洞)一根长约41 cm的石笋SD1的铀系测年和稳定同位素组成分析,获得138. 0~125. 8 ka B. P.平均分辨率为30年的石笋δ18O 和δ13C时间序列,并据此讨论了倒数第二次冰消期区域气候和环境变化的特征及与全球变化的联系.在倒数第二次冰消期,上小峰洞石笋( SD1)δ18O的变化与中国南方石笋δ18O的变化具有类似的阶段变化特征,进一步确认了冰消期北大西洋气候对亚洲季风的重要影响.通过对山东石笋高分辨δ18O记录进行时间序列分析,发现该记录存在显著的约60年、 75年和1620年周期,表明太阳活动和北大西洋涛动与该地区气候变化有紧密的联系.同时,通过对比东亚季风区高分辨率石笋记录,认为在倒数第二次冰消期为"两步冰消"的变化特征.除此之外,上小峰洞石笋碳酸盐δ18O冰期和间冰期平均值的差异仅为0. 7‰,远小于内陆洞穴石笋碳酸盐δ18O冰期和间冰期平均值的差异(羊口洞约为1. 4‰,董哥洞约为2. 2‰,三宝洞约为2. 4‰).这一显著差异可能主要源于海岸线迁移造成的海陆格局的变化对区域季风降水及降水氧同位素组成的重要影响;并且冰期-间冰期海平面变化对近海环境记录、大陆架下垫面、海洋沉积物气候指标等都可能产生影响.     

非等间距无偏GM（1,1）模型在建筑沉降预测中的应用

将非等间距数列转化为等间距数列,并建立无偏GM（1,1）模型.通过对非等间距数列的处理,得到适合GM（1,1）建模的等时距数列,并在GM（1,1）模型的基础上,给出非等间距无偏GM（1,1）建模的具体步骤.从理论上证明无偏GM（1,1）能消除GM（1,1）模型的固有偏差,拓宽GM（1,1）的使用范围.最后将模型应用于实际建筑沉降预测中,研究结果表明非等间距无偏（1,1）模型精度高、实用性强.     

湖相致密储层有利层段的沉积与湖平面变化的耦合关系及其控制因素：以柴西尕斯地区上干柴沟组下段为例

探讨有利层段的沉积与湖平面变化之间的关系,可以对湖相致密储层的勘探开发部署提供一定参考。以柴达木盆地西部尕斯地区上干柴沟组下段为例,利用自然伽马（GR）曲线资料,进行Fischer图解和铀含量（U）－有机碳（TOC）回归拟合法,重建渐新世沉积时期湖平面变化过程,结合磁化率资料,讨论了湖平面变化的气候控制作用。结果表明：（1）尕斯地区上干柴沟组下段泥质含量和TOC含量变化趋势一致,均反映其在沉积过程中经历了两次湖退和湖进过程,有利于烃源岩和储层的形成;（2）湖平面上升期形成的高水位沉积体系,对应于致密砂岩类储层中优质烃源岩的富集层段,能有效形成源－储共生配置;（3）渐新世湖平面变化受西风条件下的气候的控制,西风带来的水汽,形成相对湿润的气候条件,引起湖平面的上升,有利于烃源岩的形成,且与有利层段的沉积呈现耦合关系。