TomoSAR技术在城市形变监测中的应用

作为永久散射体雷达干涉测量技术的延伸,多基线SAR层析成像技术能够分离单个SAR像素内的多重散射体信号,精确地获取人工地物目标的三维位置和形变信息,突破城市地区形变监测中叠掩效应的制约,实现城市动态形变监测。尤其是新代高分辨军SAR卫星发射成功后,为城市动态形变监测研究提供了大量高分辨军高精度数据源。本文首先介绍SAR层析技术的理论模型,然后归纳了现有的层析算法和应用领域,最后探讨了该技术发展面临的关键问题并展望了其广阔发展前景。     

流域非点源磷素输出负荷估算方法研究

目前水质常规监测频率较低,难以客观反映流域非点源污染物浓度随降雨径流过程的变化情况,结果会低估了流域非点源污染物的输出负荷。本文利用流域次降雨过程的连续水质水量同步监测资料,研究分析次降雨过程与流域非点源磷素输出负荷之间的因果关系,并建立次降雨总量与磷素输出负荷的定量相关关系。研究结果表明,流域次降雨总量与非点源磷素输出负荷之间存在较好的相关关系。通过这种定量关系,以流域次降雨总量为输入,可以更为合理地估算出流域非点源磷素输出负荷。     

GPS滑坡位移监测精度影响因素简析

GPS位移监测技术已被广泛用于滑坡地质灾害监测预警工作中。三峡库区典型滑坡以GPS监测数据、野外踏勘和深部位移等资料为基础,对GPS监测影响进行研究,结果表明：监测点尤其是基准点被遮挡,采集到的数据存在严重误差,对滑坡变形分析影响巨大。     

多普勒雷达资料动态定量估测台风小时降水量的研究

在充分考虑传统的最优化方法和概率配对法优缺点的基础上,使用一种改进的最佳窗概率配对法计算Z-I关系中的系数A和b,得到了雷达测得的基本反射率因子Z和雨量计实时测到的小时降水量I的动态关系.利用温州多普勒雷达体扫资料和浙江省自动雨量站资料,使用该方法对"海棠"(Haitang)和"麦莎"(Matsa)两个台风分别进行了动态计算,得到了不同系数的Z-I关系,进而对两个台风的小时降水量进行了定量估测.使用变分技术对估测的小时降水量进行了校准.结果表明,不同台风Z-I关系的系数差别较大,因而造成台风小时降水量的很大不同.使用雷达基本反射率来估测台风小时降水量,能够清楚表现出台风的螺旋雨带和其中的中小尺度雨团,估测的台风小时降水量与实况基本接近.经过变分校准的估测降水量可以较好地表现出台风雨带与地面中尺度流场动力结构的对应关系.误差统计分析表明,变分校准后的估测台风小时降水量要明显好于变分校准前的估测台风小时降水量.变分校准法既保留了雷达估测台风小时降水量的分布特征,又使估测的台风小时降水雨量与实况的误差明显减小.     

Ground penetrating radar inversion in 1-D: an approach for the estimation of electrical conductivity, dielectric permittivity and magnetic permeability

This paper presents a method for inverting ground penetrating radargrams in terms of one-dimensional profiles. We resort to a special type of linearization of the damped E-field wave equation to solve the inverse problem. The numerical algorithm for the inversion is iterative and requires the solution of several forward problems, which we evaluate using the matrix propagation approach. Analytical expressions for the derivatives with respect to physical properties are obtained using the self-adjoint Green's function method. We consider three physical properties of materials; namely dielectrical permittivity, magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity. The inverse problem is solved minimizing the quadratic norm of the residuals using quadratic programming optimization. In the iterative process to speed up convergence we use the Levenberg–Mardquardt method. The special type of linearization is based on an integral equation that involves derivatives of the electric field with respect to magnetic permeability, electrical conductivity and dielectric permittivity; this equation is the result of analyzing the implication of the scaling properties of the electromagnetic field. The ground is modeled using thin horizontal layers to approximate general variations of the physical properties. We show that standard synthetic radargrams due to dielectric permittivity contrasts can be matched using electrical conductivity or magnetic permeability variations. The results indicate that it is impossible to differentiate one property from the other using GPR data.     

储层砂岩声波速度预测

本文主要基于Ｇａｓｓｍａｎｎ方程和经验规律，提出了孔隙流体替代和孔隙度改变时对砂央地震波速度变化的估计，以及直接利用岩石矿物和孔隙流体的弹性性质计算砂岩地震波速度方法，利用已知的岩芯，测井或地震数据，运用这此方法，可合理地对储层砂岩地震波速度进行预测。     

滑坡危险性分析中地震动的概率性估算及地震滑坡的危险性评判

论述了滑坡危险性分析中如何科学地估算地震力的问题。主要思路概括为：将滑坡体视为一个完整体系的结构物（或震动对象）,将滑坡场点视为一个工程场点,利用比较成熟的地震危险性概率分析方法计算滑坡体未来若干年内可能遭遇的不同超越概率水平下的地震峰值加速度,这种不确定性的地震加速度是由地震预报的不确定性带入的,由此计算地震力和惯性力。最后,对地震触发滑坡的机理展开讨论。     

基于稳健模拟退火-单纯形混合算法的微震定位研究

为提高矿井微震的定位精度,通过模拟试验对比分析常规定位及新方法在定位求解中的适用范围及优缺点,研究反演未知变量数目、检波器的密度、波速等对各自定位方法的影响。基于单纯形法的优点,并结合模拟退火法的全局收敛性,提出采用稳健的模拟退火-单纯形法进行微震定位。研究发现,该方法不必直接搜索发震时刻,只需通过稳健方法预先估算,利用较少的检波器就可进行微震定位,且基本不受初始波速影响,从而大大减少搜索步数,有效地提高定位精度及收敛速度。以柿竹园矿人工爆破定位测试试验为例,重点分析比较模拟退火-单纯形法、稳健模拟退火-单纯形法及其他定位方法的空间绝对距离及目标函数误差,认为检波器数量较多且可获得理想的P波信息时,应用非线性最小二乘法能求出可信的结果;其余定位方法的三维定位误差及目标函数误差相差不大,但稳健模拟退火-单纯形法目标函数误差最小,稳定性最高,可在矿井微震定位中推广使用。     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.      

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.