中国东部高空颠簸时空分布特征及其与热带中东太平洋海温的关系

本文利用1979～2014年NCEP-DOE日平均再分析资料和中国区域2375份航空器空中颠簸报告资料,研究中国东部区域高空颠簸的时空分布特征及其与热带中东太平洋海温异常（简称“海温异常”;空间范围:5°S～5°N,120°～170°W）的关系以及产生这种关系的可能原因。结果表明:中国东部地区高空颠簸与东亚副热带西风急流之间存在显著时空相关关系,其原因是高空纬向风引起的垂直风切变是构成高空颠簸时空分布的主导因素。中国东部夏季高空颠簸与海温异常存在正相关关系;冬季呈现南北两个正负相关区:以30°N为界,北部区域存在显著的负相关,南部区存在显著的正相关,在30°N急流轴附近区域无显著相关关系。海温异常影响中国高空颠簸时空分布的可能原因是海温变化引起对流层高层温度出现异常,进而影响温度的经向梯度,导致东亚副热带西风急流强度和位置出现异常（夏季,急流轴南侧出现西风异常;冬季,急流轴北侧出现东风异常,南侧出现西风异常）。高空纬向风的变化导致纬向风的垂直梯度和经向梯度出现异常,最终影响高空颠簸的时空分布特征。对流层高层温度的异常变化可能是由与热带海温异常相关的平流层水汽变化所引起。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF UT/LS CARBON MONOXIDE INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT FACTORS OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND ITS ADJACENT AREAS IN SUMMER

The study presented herein investigated the main characteristics of carbon monoxideintraseasonal variability and evaluated its possible impact factors using the upper troposphere and lowerstratosphere (UT/LS) Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations over Tibetan Plateau and itsadjacent areas in summer (June to August) of 2005 and 2006. Observations show a persistent constituentextreme extending up into the UT/LS throughout summer, as well as a temporally reversed phase variationbetween the carbon monoxide and ozone in UT/LS. The intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) of carbonmonoxide during summer are investigated by using methods of wavelet and band pass filter analysis. It isfound that ISOs over the Tibetan Plateau have periods of 10 to 20 days and 30 to 60 days. The formermainly appeared in upper troposphere while the latter in lower stratosphere. Further analysis shows thatthese two periods of ISOs in UT/LS are mainly in phase to the activities of convection over the south of theplateau and the variation of South Asia High, respectively. The above two factors and their dynamicalcoupling may be responsible for the tracer ISOs at different levels.     

中巴卫星遥感资料在土地资源遥感调查中的应用

对中巴资源卫星遥感资料的处理方法和技术流程进行了分析和讨论。并以新疆国土资源环境遥感综合调查项目的土地资源遥感调查重点县尉犁县为例，利用2000年4～9月中巴资源卫星遥感资料，计算了遥感资料在土地调查中的分类精度。     

近55年广西融水县降水气候特征分析

利用融水县气象站1959-2013年的降水资料,采用数理统计和线性倾向估计分析方法,分析了融水县降水分布特征及其变化规律。结果表明：融水县降水分配不均,主要集中在4-8月,6月最多,5月次之;年暴雨日数6.9d,暴雨持续时间多为1d,最长4d;近55年来融水县年降水量和汛期（4-9月）降水量均呈减少趋势,每10年分别减少16mm和6mm,而主汛期（5-8月）的降水量却呈增多趋势,每10年增加13mm,这预示着融水县未来降水可能更趋于集中在主汛期（5-8月）,发生洪涝灾害的几率可能增多。此外,一日最大降水量呈增多趋势,预示未来降雨强度可能增大;春、秋季的降水量呈减少趋势,提示未来发生春旱、秋旱的几率可能增多。     

NOAA RFE 2.0在西藏高原的验证

随着卫星探测技术的不断提高和资料处理方法的不断改进,出现了许多卫星遥感降水估算产品。每种产品都有优点及不足,且卫星间接式降水估算方法的精度也有限,但对地形复杂常规气象站台站稀少且分布极不均匀的大面积地区如西藏高原来说,卫星遥感不失为估算区域降水的有效方法之一。鉴于卫星遥感降水估算精度的局限性,每种产品需要利用地面观测数据来定量化降水估算误差,分析和评价这些资料的可用性。利用NOAA气候预测中心(CPC)研发的RFE 2.0降水估算产品,从西藏高原东南部到西北部不同气候区选取11个典型气象站2005—2006年6—9月的日降水量观测资料,验证了RFE 2.0降水估算产品在西藏高原的应用效果。结果表明,西藏高原的主要气候区RFE 2.0估算值与地面观测值之间的相关系数在0.45～0.86,平均为0.74;RFE 2.0估算的正确率POD (Probability Of Detection)一般大于73%,而空报率FAR(False Alarm Rate)为2%～12%;仅在喜马拉雅南麓地区估算精度相对较差。      

A Comparison of De-noising Methods for Differential Phase Shift and Associated Rainfall Estimation

Measured differential phase shift ΦDP is known to be a noisy unstable polarimetric radar variable, such that the quality of ΦDP data has direct impact on specific differential phase shift KDP estimation, and subsequently, the KDP-based rainfall estimation. Over the past decades, many ΦDP de-noising methods have been developed; however, the de-noising effects in these methods and their impact on KDP-based rainfall estimation lack comprehensive comparative analysis. In this study, simulated noisy ΦDP data were generated and de-noised by using several methods such as finite-impulse response(FIR), Kalman, wavelet,traditional mean, and median filters. The biases were compared between KDP from simulated and observedΦDP radial profiles after de-noising by these methods. The results suggest that the complicated FIR, Kalman,and wavelet methods have a better de-noising effect than the traditional methods. After ΦDP was de-noised,the accuracy of the KDP-based rainfall estimation increased significantly based on the analysis of three actual rainfall events. The improvement in estimation was more obvious when KDP was estimated with ΦDP de-noised by Kalman, FIR, and wavelet methods when the average rainfall was heavier than 5 mm h-1.However, the improved estimation was not significant when the precipitation intensity further increased to a rainfall rate beyond 10 mm h-1. The performance of wavelet analysis was found to be the most stable of these filters.     

K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。     

库尔勒台DSQ水管倾斜仪和SQ-70石英倾斜仪观测资料对比分析

从DSQ水管倾斜仪、SQ-70石英水平摆倾斜仪的原理出发,结合实际观测,对库尔勒地震台两套倾斜仪器所记录的资料进行对比分析。通过地倾斜的趋势分析及合成矢量分析,表明两套仪器的观测结果是基本一致的,能够较好地反映监测区域大地倾斜的变化特征。两套倾斜仪潮汐分析结果与监测场的局部构造环境是一致的,但水管倾斜仪的观测精度明显高于水平摆倾斜仪。     

利用基于抗差垂直向方差分量估计的GPS-InSAR数据融合方法反演三维形变场

GPS-InSAR数据融合解算三维形变场模型易受观测值粗差影响,且基于方差分量估计的定权方法不具备抵御粗差能力,计算效率低下。鉴于此,本文提出了一种基于抗差垂直向方差分量估计的GPS-InSAR融合解算模型,利用方差分量估计方法及抗差估计理论,通过对观测值最优化分类并进行选权迭代,精确分配权重,进而有效计算三维形变场。试验结果表明,该方法能有效抵御观测值粗差不利影响,提高三维形变场反演精度,提升逐点式计算的三维形变场效率。     

重复轨道SIR-C极化干涉SAR数据植被覆盖区土壤水分反演研究

从理论和试验方面对图像的噪声评估方法进行了分析。结合北京1号小卫星特性, 进行了该类方法应用效能的评价, 讨论了分块评估噪声方法的最佳参数设置。选取满足噪声评估环境的图像, 实现了综合不同地表覆盖条件的北京1号小卫星图像噪声的评估。噪声评估结果与在轨测试情况的对比表明, 北京1号小卫星经过近3年的运行, 仍保持了较好的性能。