海州湾及邻近海域口虾蛄栖息地适宜性建模的环境变量优化

Habitat suitability index(HSI) models have been widely used to analyze the relationship between species abundance and environmental factors, and ultimately inform management of marine species. The response of species abundance to each environmental variable is different and habitat requirements may change over life history stages and seasons. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the optimal combination of environmental variables in HSI modelling. In this study, generalized additive models(GAMs) were used to determine which environmental variables to be included in the HSI models. Significant variables were retained and weighted in the HSI model according to their relative contribution(%) to the total deviation explained by the boosted regression tree(BRT). The HSI models were applied to evaluate the habitat suitability of mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria in the Haizhou Bay and adjacent areas in 2011 and 2013–2017. Ontogenetic and seasonal variations in HSI models of mantis shrimp were also examined. Among the four models(non-optimized model, BRT informed HSI model,GAM informed HSI model, and both BRT and GAM informed HSI model), both BRT and GAM informed HSI model showed the best performance. Four environmental variables(bottom temperature, depth, distance offshore and sediment type) were selected in the HSI models for four groups(spring-juvenile, spring-adult, falljuvenile and fall-adult) of mantis shrimp. The distribution of habitat suitability showed similar patterns between juveniles and adults, but obvious seasonal variations were observed. This study suggests that the process of optimizing environmental variables in HSI models improves the performance of HSI models, and this optimization strategy could be extended to other marine organisms to enhance the understanding of the habitat suitability of target species.     

基于卫星和浮标数据的副热带西北太平洋反气旋型中尺度涡旋的个例观测研究

The comprehensive three-dimensional structures of an anti-cyclonic mesoscale eddy(AE) in the subtropical northwestern Pacific Ocean were investigated by combining the Argo floats profiles with enhanced vertical and temporal sampling and satellite altimetry data. The AE originated near the Kuroshio Extension and then propagated westward with mean velocity of 8.9 cm/s. Significant changes and evolutions during the AE's growing stage(T1) and further growing stage(T2) were revealed through composite analysis. In the composite eddy core,maximum temperature(T) and salinity(S) anomalies were of 1.7(1.9)°C and 0.04(0.07) psu in T1(T2) period,respectively. The composite T anomalies showed positive in almost whole depth, but the S anomalies exhibited a sandwich-like pattern. The eddy's intensification and its influence on the intermediate ocean became more significant during its growth. The trapping depth increased from 400×10~4 Pa to 580×10~4 Pa while it was growing up, which means more water volume, heat and salt content in deeper layers can be transported. The AE was strongly nonlinear in upper oceans and can yield a typical mean volume transport of 0.17×10~6 m~3/s and a mean heat and salt transport anomaly of 3.6×10~(11) W and –2.1×10~3 kg/s during the observation period. The Energy analysis showed that eddy potential and kinetic energy increased notably as it propagated westward and the baroclinic instability is the major energy source of the eddy growth. The variation of the remained Argo float trapped within the eddy indicated significant water advection during the eddy's propagation.     

Combining otolith elemental signatures with multivariate analytical models to verify the migratory pattern of Japanese Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) in the southern Yellow Sea

Japanese Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus niphonius, is a commercially important, highly migratory species that is widely distributed throughout the northwestern Pacific region. However, its life history and migratory patterns are only partially understood. This study used otolith chemistry to investigate the migratory pattern of S.niphonius in the southern Yellow Sea, an important fishing ground. Transverse sections of otoliths from 15 age-1 spawning or spent individuals, comprising up to one co...     

On Seasonal and Year to Year Variation in Flow of the Alaskan Stream in the Central North Pacific

The Alaskan Stream is the westward boundary current of the North Pacific subarctic gyre. In the central region of the North Pacific, the Alaskan Stream serves as a connection between the Alaskan gyre, Western subarctic gyre and Bering Sea gyre. Its volume transport is very important in estimating the magnitude of the subarctic circulation in the North Pacific. In order to clarify its seasonal and interannual variation, we conducted observations along a north-south section at 180° during June from 1990 to 1997. Moorings were deployed from 1995 to 1997. Hydrographic casts were made at intervals of 37 km to a depth of 3000 m. Moorings were set between CTD stations, with Moor1 (Moor2) at the center (southern edge) of the Alaskan Stream. Geostrophic volume transport (referred to 3000 m) revealed large interannual variability in the Alaskan Stream. Average volume transport over the 8 years was 27.5 × 10⁶ m³s^-1 with a standard deviation of 6.5 × 10⁶ m³s^-1. Maximum transport was 41.0 × 10⁶ m³s^-1 (1997) and minimum was 21.7 × 10⁶ m³s^-1 (1995). Stable westward flows were observed at Moor1 1500 m (259°, 11.7 cm s^-1) and 3000 m (240°, 3.7 cm s^-1, 1996–1997 year average). The ratio of eddy to mean kinetic energy (KE/ ) was very small (<0.6) throughout the year. A relatively weak and unstable westward flow was observed at Moor2 at 3000 m depth. Conversely, the average flow direction at Moor2 5000 m was eastward.     

Variability of Currents off the Northern Coast of New Guinea

The variability of the New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC) and New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCUC) were examined from one year time series of current data from ADCP moorings at 2°S, 142°E and 2.5°S, 142°E. Change in the hydrographic structure induced by monsoonal wind forcing was also examined from hydrographic data along the 142°E covering consecutively two winter seasons and two summer seasons. The westward NGCUC was observed to persist year around. The annual mean depth of the current core was 220 m, the mean speed of the zonal component was 54 cm/s with a standard deviation of 15 cm/s at the 2.5°S site. Velocity fluctuations at 20–30 day period were observed year around. Seasonal reversal of the surface intensified NGCC was clearly observed. In the boreal summer characterized by the southeasterly monsoon, westward currents of over 60 cm/s were dominant in the surface layer. The warm, low-salinity layer thickened at this time and sloped down toward the New Guinea coast from the equator. This surface water accumulation may be caused by onshore Ekman drift at the New Guinea coast, combined with weak Ekman upwelling at the equator. In the boreal winter, an eastward surface current developed to 100 cm/s extending down to 100 m depth in response to the northwesterly monsoonal winds. Coastal upwelling was indicated in this season and the surface water accumulated at the equator due to Ekman convergence. Shipboard ADCP data indicated that the NGCUC intensified in boreal summer as the width and depth of the NGCUC increased.     

奥帆基地水工结构物模试验的概率特性研究

为确保第29届北京奥运会青岛帆船比赛顺利进行,针对奥帆基地波浪断面模型试验结果,引入多维联合概率分析理论,并应用随机模拟技术,进行结构浮托力和越浪量计算,进而给出可靠度及风险分析结果,新方法考虑到多种极端海洋环境条件对结构物的综合作用,给模型试验赋予了联合概率特征,结果更加科学合理。     

Interannual variability of the Kuroshio transport passing through the 137°E meridian in an OGCM related to the North Pacific windstress

The interannual variability of the Kuroshio volume transport passing through the 137°E meridian south of Japan was simulated with an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The time series of the Kuroshio volume transport over the 1000 m depth in the OGCM is well reproduced by the one-dimensional quasi-geostrophic (QG) vorticity equation with a windstress forcing. In our analysis of the OGCM and QG results, we found that peaks and troughs of the time series of the Kuroshio volume transport with 2–3 yr time-scale were induced by windstress curl, both local and immediately eastward, whereas longer time-scale variability was also induced by windstress curl near the dateline.     

Current structure and volume transport of the Soya Warm Current in summer

ADCP, CTD and XBT observations were conducted to investigate the current structure and temperature, salinity and density distributions in the Soya Warm Current (SWC) in August, 1998 and July, 2000. The ADCP observations clearly revealed the SWC along the Hokkaido coast, with a width of 30–35 km and an axis of maximum speed of 1.0 to 1.3 ms⁻¹, located at 20–25 km from the coast. The current speed gradually increased from the coast to a maximum and steeply decreased in the offshore direction. The SWC consisted of both barotropic and baroclinic components, and the existence of the baroclinic component was confirmed by both the density front near the current axis and vertical shear of the alongshore current. The baroclinic component strengthened the barotropic component in the upper layer near the axis of the SWC. The volume transport of the SWC was 1.2–1.3 SV in August, 1998 and about 1.5 SV and July, 2000, respectively. Of the total transport, 13 to 15% was taken up by the baroclinic component. A weak southeastward current was found off the SWC. It had barotropic characteristics, and is surmised to be a part of the East Sakhalin Current.     

2000年东海黑潮和琉球群岛以东海流的变异Ⅱ.冲绳岛东南海域海流及其附近中尺度涡的变异

基于日本“长风丸”调查船在2000年5个航次水文资料及同时期QuikSCAT风场资料,采用改进逆方法计算了冲绳岛东南海域海流的流速与流量等,获得了以下主要结果.(1)在琉球群岛以东海区1~2,4,7,10与11月分别为东北风,东北风,东南风,偏东风,东北风.风速在4与7月较小,1~2,10与11月较大.表层风海流只有7月时偏北向,其余月偏西方向.(2)琉球海流是琉球群岛以东一支东北向的西边界流.琉球海流结构:最大流速在5个航次中1~2,4,7,10与11月分别为40 cm/s以上,15,20,20与55 cm/s.琉球海流的核心一般位于次表层.琉球海流在5个航次中垂向方向可达1 200 m以深,在琉球海流以深存在弱的、西南向海流.(3)琉球海流的流量在1~2与11月时最大,分别为20×106与14.5×10 m3/s,而在4月时流量最小,只有3.1×106m3/s.这表明琉球海流的流量在2000年季节变化很大.(4)在5个调查航次中,琉球海流以东调查海域都存在尺度不同的、各种冷的气旋式和暖的反气旋式涡.1~2月时,计算区域中部与东部,分别存在反气旋暖涡W1,W2和气旋式冷涡C1,C2;在4月时存在一对较强的、水平尺度都较大的、暖的反气旋涡和冷的气旋式涡,在它们中间出现南向流,它们可能组成一个偶极子等.这些表明,在5个航次中,琉球群岛以东调查海域存在各种强度不等的中尺度涡,其变化都很大.(5)琉球海流的流量受其附近各种涡的影响很大,特别是涡的强度增大时,可能减少琉球海流的流量.(6)在5个调查航次中,琉球群岛以东调查海域都存在南向流,其中11月时最大,其流量大于15×106m3/s,其次在1~2月,其流量大于10×106m3/s,在4月最小,流量约为3×106m3/s.上述南向流的季节变化趋向与琉球海流的季节变化趋向基本一致.     

油气运移基础理论与油气勘探

在非均质地层中, 烃类的扩散流和体积流可以同时存在并可相互转换.扩散流有助于烃类从源岩中排出, 并通过流动方式的转变直接参与油气的聚集成藏.在致密泥岩层中, 扩散流和体积流的计算流速分别为4~18 m/Ma和3~15 m/Ma, 几乎没有差别, 说明泥岩中的流动也可以用达西公式来表述.虽然油气的浮力流和渗流都是地下多孔介质中的流动, 但油气在水中上浮不呈连续相流动.因此不要求也不能用达西公式表述临界运移饱和度和相对渗透率.优势运移通道和有效运移空间是2个不同的概念, 前者是指油气运移的主要方向, 后者是指地层中真正发生了油气运移的空间.大约有70%的油气藏位于优势运移通道上, 而在运载层中有效运移通道空间约占总孔隙空间的5%~10%.圈闭的封盖强度与闭合度有3种不同的组合类型, 它们是世界上油气分布的主控因素.根据研究和统计, 世界石油储量的半衰期约为29 Ma, 大油田的中值年龄约为35 Ma.根据烃类的微渗漏流量计算, 中-大型油气藏的平均自然年龄约为50~100 Ma.