砂土液化判别方法可靠性评价

在进行液化评价简化法与规范液化判别方法对比基础上，利用液化概率的对数回归方程，讨论了规范液化判别方法的可靠性。研究结果表明，我国规范液化判别方法其液化概率变动较大，对于烈度 Ⅶ 度，规范法的液化概率在0.17～0.42间，小于简化法概率0.36～0.43，偏保守。对于烈度 Ⅷ 度和 Ⅸ 度近地表场地，规范法的液化概率高达0.65～0.70，远远高于简化法的液化概率，安全裕度不够。对于含粘粒土质液化评价，规范方法的液化概率总体上都较简化法高，特别是烈度Ⅷ度高粘粒含量其液化概率为0.9。     

淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究

应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架，即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度，研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明，概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值，特别当预报不确定度较大时，概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。     

On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.     

Triaxial stress state deep in orogenic belts: an example from Turkey

A rare metachert pebble containing amphibole grains with microboudin structures in a wide range of orientations provides an opportunity to perform stress analysis in two orthogonal orientations on the foliation surface. The sample was analysed by the microboudin method to infer the triaxial stress state during microboudinage. Stress parameters proportional to the far-field differential stress were determined for sodic amphibole grains in the two orientations. The ratio of the stresses in the two orthogonal orientations (σ₁−σ₂)/(σ₁−σ₃) was calculated to be 0.64, indicating that σ₂ lies closer to the midpoint between σ₁ and σ₃ than to σ₃.     

Occurrence of the Indian genus Hemibos (Bovini, Bovidae, Mammalia) at the Early–Middle Pleistocene transition in Italy

The morphology of the horn-core structure and section shape of the Bos galerianus type specimen, as well as the general anatomy of the frontal and occipital areas of the skull, suggest that the skull is better attributed to the Indian genus Hemibos. This finding contributes to our understanding of faunal dispersal patterns into Europe at the Early–Middle Pleistocene transition.     

Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation and climatic history of the Cass Basin, central South Island, New Zealand

Lithology, pollen, macrofossils, and stable carbon isotopes from an intermontane basin bog site in southern New Zealand provide a detailed late-glacial and early Holocene vegetation and climate record. Glacial retreat occurred before 17,000 cal yr B.P., and tundra-like grassland–shrubland occupied the basin shortly after. Between 16,500 and 14,600 cal yr B.P., a minor regional expansion of forest patches occurred in response to warming, but the basin remained in shrubland. Forest retreated between 14,600 and 13,600 cal yr B.P., at about the time of the Antarctic Cold Reversal. At 13,600 cal yr B.P., a steady progression from shrubland to tall podocarp forest began as the climate ameliorated. Tall, temperate podocarp trees replaced stress-tolerant shrubs and trees between 12,800 and 11,300 cal yr B.P., indicating sustained warming during the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC). Stable isotopes suggest increasing atmospheric humidity from 11,800 to 9300 cal yr B.P. Mild (annual temperatures at least 1°C higher than present), and moist conditions prevailed from 11,000 to 10,350 cal yr B.P. Cooler, more variable conditions followed, and podocarp forest was completely replaced by montane Nothofagus forest at around 7500 cal yr B.P. with the onset of the modern climate regime. The Cass Basin late-glacial climate record closely matches the Antarctic ice core records and is in approximate antiphase with the North Atlantic.     

适用于大旋转角的三维基准转换的一种简便模型

基于大角度的空间直角坐标转换，提出了以方向余弦为参数、适用于任何角度旋转的空间直角坐标转换的简明计算方法。     

基于物方影像匹配和概率松弛的断面自动提取

提出了基于物方影像匹配的断面提取,为了提高匹配的可靠性,引入了概率松弛法,最终获得了高精度的断面.     

2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。     

Mesozoic-Cenozoic tectonic transition in Kuqa Depression-Tianshan, Northwest China: Evidence from sandstone detrital and geochemical records

Succeeding to multiply collisions of different blocks in Late Paleozoic[1―5], complex intracontinental structural deformation occurred in the Tianshan area during Mesozoic-Cenozoic[6―16], which controlled coeval basin-range evolution and resulted in intensive modi- fication and adjustment of the Paleozoic oil-gas reser- voirs[17―19]. The Kuqa Depression is a secendary struc- tural unit of the Tarim basin, in which Mesozoic- Ce- nozoic deposits occur in thickness of 6000―7000 m. The Kuq…