Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.     

Assessing the benthic quality status of the Bohai Bay (China) with proposed modifications of M-AMBI

Multivariate AZTI's Marine Biotic Index (M-AMBI) was designed to indicate the ecological status of European coastal areas. Based upon samples collected from 2009 to 2012 in the Bohai Bay, we have tested the response of variations of M-AMBI, using biomass (M-BAMBI) in the calculations, with different transformations of the raw data. The results showed that the ecological quality of most areas in the study indicated by M-AMBI was from moderate to bad status with the worse status in the coastal areas, especially around the estuaries, harbors and outfalls, and better status in the offshore areas except the area close to oil platforms or disposal sites. Despite large variations in nature of the input data, all variations of M-AMBI gave similar spatial and temporal distribution patterns of the ecological status within the bay, and showed high correlation between them. The agreement of new ecological status obtained from all M-AMBI variations, which were calculated according to linear regression, was almost perfect. The benthic quality, assessed using different input data, could be related to human pressures in the bay, such as water discharges, land reclamation, dredged sediment and drilling cuts disposal sites. It seems that M-BAMBI were more effective than M-NABMI (M-AMBI calculated using abundance data) in indicating human pressures of the Bay. Finally, indices calculated with more severe transformations, such as presence/absence data, could not indicate the higher density of human pressures in the coastal areas of the north part of our study area, but those calculated using mild transformation (i.e., square root) did.     

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基于坐标转换的高铁平面精测网复测稳定性分析方法探讨

首先介绍了现有各级平面精测网复测稳定性分析的常规方法,然后结合GRP网中判别CPⅢ点稳定性的方法,尝试使用三参数坐标转换进行高铁平面精测网复测稳定性分析,最后以某高铁CPI控制网实测数据为例进行分析。结果表明,不能完全使用三参数坐标转换代替常规方法进行精测网的稳定性分析,但可在使用坐标转换后的点位残差进行稳定性评价时,结合常规法进行综合分析,可提高常规法分析判别效率。     

基于罗德里格矩阵的三维坐标转换方法

采用罗德里格矩阵公式,在不考虑尺度因子的情况下,建立了基于罗德里格矩阵的六参数坐标转换模型,推导了高精度参数初值计算方法,最小二乘迭代法平差公式。通过实测数据验证,通过实测数据计算,表明该算法具有精度高、稳定性强、适用性广等优点。     

稳健估计下转换参数系数矩阵定向改正的整体最小二乘

不同空间坐标系在进行坐标转换过程中,利用整体最小二乘(TLS)构建高斯-马尔科夫(Gauss-Markov)模型求解布尔莎-沃尔夫(Bursa-Wolf)七参数模型时,存在已知控制点含有粗差、模型系数阵固定常数参与残差改正的问题。通过对系数矩阵中含误差参数进行改正,并结合稳健估计的方法,对TLS进行迭代定权,解决了已知控制点粗差会对参数计算精度产生影响的问题,同时使得系数矩阵中非常数项得到精确的残差改正。本文通过实验数据证明,此方法可行并且解算精度更优。     

伴随对流层中低层气温持续下降的雪转雨过程分析

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）0.25°×0.25°分辨率细网格模式产品、探空观测资料和风廓线雷达等资料,对2014年2月18日浙江嘉兴雨雪天气过程中降水相态先由雨转雪、再由雪转雨的变化条件进行了分析,并对ECMWF细网格模式产品进行了预报性能检验,结果表明：模式形势预报准确,但未能预报出雪转雨过程。在对流层中低层气温持续降低的情况下,水汽凝结高度不同是造成两次相态转换的主要原因。上午垂直运动加强,水汽充沛,降水粒子的凝结高度高,足以形成大的雪花,在较低的零度层高度以下降落时不至于融化;下午垂直运动减弱,水汽集中在低层,尽管这一高度层的气温在-3～-2 ℃,但是不足以凝结成固态降水,同时地面气温受海上暖平流影响而回升,因此降水相态由雪转雨。     

基于CCD星图的空间目标精确光学定位方法研究

通过光学定位方法来确定空间目标的轨道是实现空间目标监测的重要手段之一。介绍一套小型的空间目标光学定位系统,针对该系统获取的CCD星图,提出Top-hat变换和中值滤波相结合的算法去除星图噪声,并提出基于梯度Hough变换的算法完成对CCD星图星点和轨迹的同时精确定位,最后利用星角距的旋转不变性和球面几何原理,实现对空间目标的精确定位。对分辨率为752×580的CCD实拍星图的应用研究结果表明,星图去噪算法和星点、轨迹同时精确定位算法是有效的,且空间目标的定位精度也可达到角秒量级。     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.