利用重复地震观测重庆巫山地区地壳介质变化

利用波形互相关技术,对重庆数字地震台网记录的巫山地区90次地震波形资料进行相关计算,识别出24对同时被2个地震台站记录且各台波形互相关系数不小于0.8的重复地震对;利用射线追踪方法,对巫山地区重复地震位置做归一化处理,得到所选台站记录地震P波走时差变化,结果显示,在2013年重庆巫山M_L 3.7地震前,建坪、双龙、荆竹地震台记录到该地区短期地壳介质速度有明显升高现象。     

前兆逆向追踪法与台湾地震前兆

用前兆逆向追踪法研究台湾东部地区大地震前兆, 讨论适合该地区地震链和中期图象的参数,确定地震链的中期图象阈值. 将线性判别方法应用于地震链的中期图象,给出一种探索大地震前兆的途径. 数据分析结果表明,这种途径可降低对该地区大地震的虚报率; 前兆逆向追踪法在台湾地区是适用的.      

Assessment of groundwater recharge processes through karst vadose zone by cave percolation monitoring

Recharge processes of karst aquifers are difficult to assess given their strong heterogeneity and the poorly known effect of vadose zone on infiltration. However, recharge assessment is crucial for the evaluation of groundwater resources. Moreover, the vulnerability of karst aquifers depends on vadose zone behaviour because it is the place where most contamination takes place. In this work, an in situ experimental approach was performed to identify and quantify flow and storage processes occurring in karst vadose zone. Cave percolation monitoring and dye tracing were used to investigate unsaturated zone hydrological processes. Two flow components (diffuse and quick) were identified and, respectively, account for 66% and 34% of the recharge. Quickflow was found to be the result of bypass phenomenon in vadose zone related to water saturation. We identify the role of epikarst as a shunting area, most of the storage in the vadose zone occurring via the diffuse flow component in low permeability zones. Relationship between rainfall intensity and transit velocity was demonstrated, with 5 times higher velocities for the quick recharge mode than the diffuse mode. Modelling approach with KarstMod software allowed to simulate the hybrid recharge through vadose zone and shows promising chances to properly assess the recharge processes in karst aquifer based on simple physical models.     

Quantitative analysis of riverbank groundwater flow for the Qinhuai River,China, and its influence factors

Interactions of surface water and groundwater (SW–GW) play an important role in the physical, chemical, and ecological processes of riparian zones. The main objective of this study was to describe the two‐dimensional characteristics of riverbank SW–GW interactions and to quantify their influence factors. The SW–GW exchange fluxes for six sections (S1 to S6) of the Qinhuai River, China, were estimated using a heat tracing method, and field hydrogeological and thermodynamic parameters were obtained via inverse modelling. Global sensitivity analysis was performed to compare the effects of layered heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity and river stage variation on SW–GW exchange. Under the condition of varied river stage, only the lateral exchange fluxes at S1 apparently decreased during the monitoring period, probably resulting from its relatively higher hydraulic conductivity. Meanwhile, the SW–GW exchanges for the other five sections were quite stable over time. The lateral exchange fluxes were higher than the vertical ones. The riverbank groundwater flow showed different spatial variation characteristics for the six sections, but most of the higher exchange fluxes occurred in the lower area of a section. The section with larger hydraulic conductivity has an apparent dynamic response to surface water and groundwater level differences, whereas lower permeabilities severely reduced the response of groundwater flow. The influence of boundary conditions on SW–GW interactions was restricted to a limited extent, and the impact extent will expand with the increase of peak water level and hydraulic conductivity. The SW–GW head difference was the main influence factors in SW–GW interactions, and the influence of both SW–GW head difference and hydraulic conductivity decreased with an increase of the distance from the surface water boundary. For each layer of riverbank sediment, its hydraulic conductivity had greater influence on its groundwater flow than the other layers, whereas it had negligible effects on its overlying/underlying layers. Consequently, the variations in river stage and hydraulic conductivity were the main factors influencing the spatial and temporal characteristics of riverbank groundwater flow, respectively.     

The importance of incorporating diurnally fluctuating stream discharge in stream temperature energy balance models

Although stream temperature energy balance models are useful to predict temperature through time and space, a major unresolved question is whether fluctuations in stream discharge reduce model accuracy when not exactly represented. However, high‐frequency (e.g., subdaily) discharge observations are often unavailable for such simulations, and therefore, diurnal streamflow fluctuations are not typically represented in energy balance models. These fluctuations are common due to evapotranspiration, snow pack or glacial melt, tidal influences within estuaries, and regulated river flows. In this work, we show when to account for diurnally fluctuating streamflow. To investigate how diurnal streamflow fluctuations affect predicted stream temperatures, we used a deterministic stream temperature model to simulate stream temperature along a reach in the Quilcayhuanca Valley, Peru, where discharge varies diurnally due to glacial melt. Diurnally fluctuating streamflow was varied alongside groundwater contributions via a series of computational experiments to assess how uncertainty in reach hydrology may impact simulated stream temperature. Results indicated that stream temperatures were more sensitive to the rate of groundwater inflow to the reach compared with the timing and amplitude of diurnal fluctuations in streamflow. Although incorporating observed diurnal fluctuations in discharge resulted in a small improvement in model RMSE, we also assessed other diurnal discharge signals and found that high amplitude signals were more influential on modelled stream temperatures when the discharge peaked at specific times. Results also showed that regardless of the diurnal discharge signal, the estimated groundwater flux to the reach only varied from 1.7% to 11.7% of the upstream discharge. However, diurnal discharge fluctuations likely have a stronger influence over longer reaches and in streams where the daily range in discharge is larger, indicating that diurnal fluctuations in stream discharge should be considered in certain settings.     

Aspects of Modern Raytracing Application Design

Simulating the propagation of seismic energy in an inhomogeneous, possibly anisotropic earth model is a challenging problem, both theoretically and from the computer implementation side. While most publications in the geophysical literature focus on the theory, this paper illustrates how recent advances in computer science can be of great value to researchers who try to create numeric realizations of complex geophysical processes such as seismic raytracing. Modern concepts including object- oriented programming, combined with new and often free-of-charge development tools can significantly improve productivity and flexibility in implementing and exploring new ideas.A variety of issues important in wavefront-construction based raytracing are ad- dressed and it is demonstrated how modern program design may help researchers to more quickly produce better software implementations and free up time to focus on the fundamental theoretical problems.     

2008年新疆和静5.3级地震异常特征及短临跟踪回顾分析

2008年8月30日新疆和静发生5.3级地震,位于新疆年度地震危险区内。震前由本文作者组成的南天山东段6级地震危险区短临跟踪小组于2008年6月中旬提出了短临预报意见。本文回顾分析了这次地震前开展的短临跟踪的工作思路、前兆异常的分析讨论及地震短期预测等,并对地震短临跟踪预报工作做一些探讨。     

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene sediment sources contributing to the central Jiangsu coast,China: New insights into source-to-sink processes

Coastal deltaic deposits are the primary locations for sediment storage on Earth, and quantifying their source contributions is a critical prerequisite for delineating S2S patterns in marginal seas. In most cases, quantification for the contribution by fine-grained sediments (i.e. particle size < 63 μm) is considered to be representative to constrain the overall sediment supply. However, this approach may be inappropriate because large differences exist between the two quantities. Here we propose an approach to solve the problem, which is based on the maximum number of tracers from multiple sediment size fractions incorporating the content of all size fractions of sediment. Using this approach, absolute source contributions during the Holocene are reconstructed that provide a first-order model for the S2S pattern of the central Jiangsu coast, China. The Huanghe River is the strongest driver for the Holocene sedimentation, with a mean contribution of ~72 ± 6% (1417 × 10⁸ t). The absolute contributions from the Changjiang and offshore areas were of secondary importance, (i.e. ~17 ± 1% (330 × 10⁸ t) and ~11 ± 5% (217 × 10⁸ t), respectively). The results show that a large difference between the relative and absolute source contributions and the assumption that the relative contribution represents the absolute contribution is invalid in a coastal setting. The impact of the Huanghe is mainly based on episodic events, such as the event of 1128–1855 AD . The model also reveals that the offshore sediments are as important as the Changjiang sediments for the central Jiangsu coast during the Holocene. Thus, the model provides both the time series and overall quantities of sediment supply during the formation and evolution of the Holocene tidal flats on the Jiangsu coast. Our findings shed new light on quantitative analysis of sediment sources applicable to future S2S studies of marginal seas. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The representation of sediment source group tracer distributions in Monte Carlo uncertainty routines for fingerprinting: An analysis of accuracy and precision using data for four contrasting catchments

Previous studies comparing sediment fingerprinting un-mixing models report large differences in their accuracy. The representation of tracer concentrations in source groups is perhaps the largest difference between published studies. However, the importance of decisions concerning the representation of tracer distributions has not been explored explicitly. Accordingly, potential sediment sources in four contrasting catchments were intensively sampled. Virtual sample mixtures were formed using between 10 and 100% of the retrieved samples to simulate sediment mobilization and delivery from subsections of each catchment. Source apportionment used models with a transformed multivariate normal distribution, normal distribution, 25th–75th percentile distribution and a distribution replicating the retrieved source samples. The accuracy and precision of model results were quantified and the reasons for differences were investigated. The 25th–75th percentile distribution produced the lowest mean inaccuracy (8.8%) and imprecision (8.5%), with the Sample Based distribution being next best (11.5%; 9.3%). The transformed multivariate (16.9%; 17.3%) and untransformed normal distributions (16.3%; 20.8%) performed poorly. When only a small proportion of the source samples formed the virtual mixtures, accuracy decreased with the 25th–75th percentile and Sample Based distributions so that when <20% of source samples were used, the actual mixture composition infrequently fell outside of the range of uncertainty shown in un-mixing model outputs. Poor performance was due to combined random Monte Carlo numbers generated for all tracers not being viable for the retrieved source samples. Trialling the use of a 25th–75th percentile distribution alongside alternatives may result in significant improvements in both accuracy and precision of fingerprinting estimates, evaluated using virtual mixtures. Caution should be exercised when using a normal type distribution, without exploration of alternatives, as un-mixing model performance may be unacceptably poor.     

复杂地质层面的网格化模型及两点射线追踪方法

本文针对三维复杂介质的两点射线追踪的适用性和有效性,提出了网格模型和层状模型相结合的建模方式,文中利用规则网格化的层状模型对复杂地质单元进行数值描述,一方面避免了用纯粹复杂地质网格体描述时需要的大量内存,另一方面结合运用规则化的层状模型,必有利于提高计算效率,在计算单元自动生成的射线追踪方法基础上,本文结合波前法提出一种快速、有效的两点射线追踪方法,利用反射波波前在地表形成的射线方位角和倾角坐标体系,能快速、准确地收敛到所有从源点到接收点的射线路径,亦可有效地解决射线路径的多值解难题,从而可适用于复杂地质模型的特点.