Argos: An optimized time-series photometer

We designed a prime focus CCD photometer, Argos, optimized for high speed time-series measurements of blue variables (Nather & Mukadam 2004) for the 2.1 m telescope at McDonald Observatory. Lack of any intervening optics between the primary mirror and the CCD makes the instrument highly efficient. We measure an improvement in sensitivity by a factor of nine over the 3-channel PMT photometers used on the same telescope and for the same exposure time. The CCD frame transfer operation triggered by GPS synchronized pulses serves as an electronic shutter for the photometer. This minimizes the dead time between exposures, but more importantly, allows a precise control of the start and duration of the exposure. We expect the uncertainty in our timing to be less than 100μs. Hubble Fellow     

Accurate mapping of forest types using dense seasonal Landsat time-series

An accurate map of forest types is important for proper usage and management of forestry resources. Medium resolution satellite images (e.g., Landsat) have been widely used for forest type mapping because they are able to cover large areas more efficiently than the traditional forest inventory. However, the results of a detailed forest type classification based on these images are still not satisfactory. To improve forest mapping accuracy, this study proposed an operational method to get detailed forest types from dense Landsat time-series incorporating with or without topographic information provided by DEM. This method integrated a feature selection and a training-sample-adding procedure into a hierarchical classification framework. The proposed method has been tested in Vinton County of southeastern Ohio. The detailed forest types include pine forest, oak forest, and mixed-mesophytic forest. The proposed method was trained and validated using ground samples from field plots. The three forest types were classified with an overall accuracy of 90.52% using dense Landsat time-series, while topographic information can only slightly improve the accuracy to 92.63%. Moreover, the comparison between results of using Landsat time-series and a single image reveals that time-series data can largely improve the accuracy of forest type mapping, indicating the importance of phenological information contained in multi-seasonal images for discriminating different forest types. Thanks to zero cost of all input remotely sensed datasets and ease of implementation, this approach has the potential to be applied to map forest types at regional or global scales.     

天津地区的水平形变特征

根据天津及周边地区GNSS连续观测站资料,在计算得到各站三维站坐标时间序列结果的基础上,文章分析了天津地区GNSS基线时间序列的变化情况和水平形变变化特征.结果显示,天津地区总体呈现压扭变化,不同地段存在差异.天津地区NE-SW向和NW-SE向GNSS基线的伸长和缩短变化呈北西向条带状相间分布.日本3·11地震使天津地壳出现近东西向拉张为主的活动,一定程度上释放消减了天津地区的挤压应变.     

Monitoring aboveground forest biomass dynamics over three decades using Landsat time-series and single-date inventory data

Understanding forest biomass dynamics is crucial for carbon and environmental monitoring, especially in the context of climate change. In this study, we propose a robust approach for monitoring aboveground forest biomass (AGB) dynamics by combining Landsat time-series with single-date inventory data. We developed a Random Forest (RF) based kNN model to produce annual maps of AGB from 1988 to 2017 over 7.2 million ha of forests in Victoria, Australia. The model was internally evaluated using a bootstrapping technique. Predictions of AGB and its change were then independently evaluated using multi-temporal Lidar data (2008 and 2016). To understand how natural and anthropogenic processes impact forest AGB, we analysed trends in relation to the history of disturbance and recovery. Specifically, change metrics (e.g., AGB loss and gain, Years to Recovery - Y2R) were calculated at the pixel level to characterise the patterns of AGB change resulting from forest dynamics. The imputation model achieved a RMSE value of 132.9 Mg ha⁻¹ (RMSE% = 46.3%) and R² value of 0.56. Independent assessments of prediction maps in 2008 and 2016 using Lidar-based AGB data achieved relatively high accuracies, with a RMSE of 108.6 Mg ha⁻¹ and 135.9 Mg ha⁻¹ for 2008 and 2016, respectively. Annual validations of AGB maps using un-changed, homogenous Lidar plots suggest that our model is transferable through time (RMSE ranging from 109.65 Mg ha⁻¹ to 112.27 Mg ha⁻¹ and RMSE% ranging from 25.38% to 25.99%). In addition, changes in AGB values associated with forest disturbance and recovery (decrease and increase, respectively) were captured by predicted maps. AGB change metrics indicate that AGB loss and Y2R varied across bioregions and were highly dependent on levels of disturbance severity (i.e., a greater loss and longer recovery time were associated with a higher severity disturbance). On average, high severity fire burnt from 200 Mg ha⁻¹ to 550 Mg ha⁻¹ of AGB and required up to 15 years to recover while clear-fell logging caused a reduction in 250 Mg ha⁻¹ to 600 Mg ha⁻¹ of AGB and required nearly 20 years to recover. In addition, AGB within un-disturbed forests showed statistically significant but monotonic trends, suggesting a mild gradual drop over time across most bioregions. Our methods are designed to support forest managers and researchers in developing forest monitoring systems, especially in developing regions, where only a single date forestry inventory exists.     

基于MODIS EVI时序数据的云南高原山地森林物候特征识别

基于2000—2011年MOD13Q1产品的EVI时序,借助QA-SDS数据集消除云、阴影和冰雪等的影响后,采用非对称高斯函数拟合法进行时序重构,并运用动态阈值法提取云南高原山地典型森林植被的物候特征参数(即生长期开始时间、峰值时间、结束时间和生长期长度),进而分析了不同植被类型物候期规律及其主要控制因素。结果表明:1.从寒温性森林植被到热性森林植被的EVI值呈递增趋势;2.森林植被生长期开始时间、峰值时间和结束时间分别大致发生在3月中旬至4月中下旬、6月中旬至下旬和8月中旬至10月初,生长期长度为135～195 d;3.由寒温性植被向热性植被的生长期高峰时间和生长期结束时间总体呈延迟趋势,且生长期延长,生长期开始时间则由暖性植被向寒温性植被、暖性植被向热性植被双向提前;4.高原山地热量梯度决定了森林植被物候的空间格局,水分条件则主要控制着EVI和物候期的年际波动。     

Short-run forecasting of United States coal production

Summary This paper focuses on short-range modelling and forecasting of aggregate US monthly coal production. The 1976–83 time-series data suggest a multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to replicate national level monthly coal production. The identified model required 12-month seasonal differencing and has an autoregressive component of lag 1 and a moving average component of lag 12. Model predictions for 1984 were very reasonable when compared with actual production: cyclical patterns were correctly replicated and the deterministic increasing trend was properly identified. The estimated model was enhanced by updating it with data for 1984. Intervention analysis was used to determine the impact of labour negotiations in coal production. Information relative to the identified ARIMA model was then used to model the intervening event of labour negotiations. Intervention modelling produced forecasts for 1984 superior to those identified by the ARIMA model. The mean predicted 1984 US monthly coal production of 1976–84 ARIMA and intervention models were 96.05 and 99.65% of the observed value of 74 178 thousand short tons per month, respectively. Simplicity of the ARIMA and intervention models, the realiability of their predictions, and the ease of updating make them very attractive when compared with large scale econometric models for use in short-term coal production forecasting.     

Biome-level relationships between vegetation indices and climate variables using time-series analysis of remotely-sensed data

ABSTRACT

Climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature play a vital role in the growth characteristics of vegetation. While the relationship between climate and vegetation growth can be accurately predicted in instances where vegetation is homogenous, this becomes complex to determine in heterogeneous vegetation environments. The aim of this paper was to study the relationship between remotely-sensed monthly vegetation indices (i.e. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Enhanced Vegetation Index) and climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) using time-series analysis at the biome-level. Specifically, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL1 and ARDL2, corresponding respectively to one month and two month lags) and the Koyck-transformed distributed lag model were used to build regression models. All three models estimated NDVI and EVI fairly accurately in all biomes (Relative Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE): 12.0–26.4%). Biomes characterized by relative homogeneity (Grassland, Savanna, Indian Ocean Coastal Belt and Forest Biomes) achieved the most accurate estimates due to the dominance of a few species. Comparisons of lag size (one month compared to two months) generally showed similarities (Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and log-likelihood) with quite high comparability in certain biomes – this indicates the utility of the ARDL1 and ARDL2 model, depending on the availability of appropriate data. These findings demonstrate the variation in estimation linked to the biome, and thus the validity of biome-level correlation of climatic data and vegetation indices.     

Modelling the Mixing Function to Constrain Coseismic Hydrochemical Effects: An Example from the French Pyrénées

Groundwater coseismic transient anomalies are evidenced and characterized by modelling the mixing function F characteristic of the groundwater dynamics in the Ogeu (western French Pyrénées) seismic context. Investigations of water-rock interactions at Ogeu indicate that these mineral waters from sedimentary environments result from the mixing of deep waters with evaporitic signature with surficial karstic waters. A 3-year hydrochemical monitoring of Ogeu springwater evidences that using arbitrary thresholds constituted by the mean ± 1 or 2σ, as often performed in such studies, is not a suitable approach to characterize transient anomalies. Instead, we have used a mixing function F calculated with chemical elements, which display a conservative behavior not controlled by the precipitation of a mineral phase. F is processed with seismic energy release (E_s) and effective rainfalls (R). Linear impulse responses of F to E_s and R have been calculated. Rapid responses (10 days) to rainwater inputs are evidenced, consisting in the recharge of the shallow karstic reservoir by fresh water. Complex impulse response of F to microseismic activity is also evidenced. It consists in a 2-phase hydrologic signal, with an inflow of saline water in the shallow reservoir with a response delay of 10 days, followed by an inflow of karstic water with a response delay of 70 days, the amount being higher than the saline inflow. Such a process probably results from changes in volumetric strain with subsequent microfracturation transient episodes allowing short inflow of deep salted water in the aquifer. This study demonstrates that groundwater systems in such environments are unstable systems that are highly sensitive to both rainfall inputs and microseismic activity. Impulse responses calculation of F to E_s is shown to be a powerful tool to identify transient anomalies. Similar processing is suggested to be potentially efficient to detect precursors of earthquakes when long time-series (5 years at least) are available in areas with high seismicity.     

Linking land cover dynamics with driving forces in mountain landscape of the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula

The mountainous areas of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula have undergone intense land abandonment. In this work, we wanted to determine if the abandonment of the rural areas was the main driver of landscape dynamics in Gerês–Xurés Transboundary Biosphere Reserve (NW Iberian Peninsula), or if other factors, such as wildfires and the land management were also directly affecting these spatio-temporal dynamics. For this purpose, we used earth observation data acquired from Landsat TM and ETM + satellite sensors, complemented by ancillary data and prior field knowledge, to evaluate the land use/land cover changes in our study region over a 10-year period (2000–2010). The images were radiometrically calibrated using a digital elevation model to avoid cast- and self-shadows and different illumination effects caused by the intense topographic variations in the study area. We applied a maximum likelihood classifier, as well as other five approaches that provided insights into the comparison of thematic maps. To describe the land cover changes we addressed the analysis from a multilevel approach in three areas with different regimes of environmental protection. The possible impact of wildfires was assessed from statistical and spatially explicit fire data. Our findings suggest that land abandonment and forestry activities are the main factors causing the changes in landscape patterns. Specifically, we found a strong decrease of the ‘meadows and crops’ and ‘sparse vegetation areas’ in favor of woodlands and scrublands. In addition, the huge impact of wildfires on the Portuguese side have generated new ‘rocky areas’, while on the Spanish side its impact does not seem to have been a decisive factor on the landscape dynamics in recent years. We conclude rural exodus of the last century, differences in land management and fire suppression policies between the two countries and the different protection schemes could partly explain the different patterns of changes recorded in these covers.