黄河河口延伸与下游淤积关系研究中的问题分析

阐明了黄河河口延伸与下游淤积关系问题的实质,指出了黄河河口延伸与下游淤积关系对时间尺度的依赖性,进而深入探讨了以前研究这一问题所用论据的合理性题。分析结果揭示,那种认为黄河下游淤积由河口延伸控制和河口延伸作用局限于近口河段的说法都缺乏令人信服的证据。     

ISLAND SOJOURNS

ABSTRACT. Islands have long held a central place in Western cultures' mythical geographies. They have been associated for centuries with heroic journeys and holy quests, imagined realms of magical transformations. Islands have also been sites of significant rites of passage, and they continue to perform this function in the modern secular world. Today, popular islomania is expressed in the frequency of seasonal sojourning on European and American archipelagos. No longer destinations of permanent residence, islands now provide access to a sense of temporal and spatial rootedness that is no longer available on mainlands. They loom large on the mental maps even of those who rarely, if ever, visit them.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of tree height in a young cork oak plantation

Cork oak is one of the most valuable natural forest genera in the Mediterranean basin. Modelling cork oak growth has been a challenge for foresters in recent years because of strong site and genetic influences, below-ground competition, management regimes and age effects. Because cork productivity is related to forest height, which is, in turn, related directly with site characteristics, an increase in the accuracy of height prediction implies improved productivity estimation. A Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) geostatistical model was applied to characterize the space–time pattern of height of young cork oak in a forest stand from central Sardinia in the years 2000, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2008. Cork oak height maps were produced for each of the 5 years. The main goals were to analyse and interpret through time (i) the changes in spatial correlation and (ii) the changes in spatial distribution of cork oak height. The plantation was characterized by an increasing spatial dependence through time, whereas the temporal range was 2 years. Cork oak height was significantly correlated with wind speed (reduced by a neighbouring forest) in all the years implying a single trend. The correlations were larger for 2006 and 2008 than for previous years. Three other environmental variables (shade, elevation and slope) were less significant and their influence restricted to 2 years only. This research has several implications for the management of cork oak in the young phase.     

Map errors that could account for deviations from a uniform intensity of land change

Intensity Analysis is a mathematical framework that compares a uniform intensity to observed intensities of temporal changes among categories. Our article summarizes Intensity Analysis and presents a new method to compute the minimum hypothetical error in the data that could account for each observed deviation from a uniform intensity. A larger hypothetical error gives stronger evidence against a hypothesis that a change is uniform. The method produces results for five groups of measurements, which are organized into three levels of analysis: interval, category, and transition. The method applies generally to analysis of changes among categories during time intervals, because the input is a standard contingency table for each time interval. We illustrate the method with a case study concerning change during three time intervals among four land categories in northeastern Massachusetts, USA. Modelers can perform the analysis using our computer program, which is free.     

Estimated travel time for walking trails in natural areas

An increase in walking or hiking activities in natural areas requires improvements in information and advice about trails, including their difficulty, available services and estimated travel time. Comparative studies show remarkable differences between measured and calculated travel times obtained by available predictive procedures (Naismith’s rule, Tobler’s hiking function or MIDE). A new procedure has been designed by combining pre-existing methods (Tobler’s and MIDE), and travel times have been calculated for 21 trails located in different protected natural areas of Spain. Times obtained are compared with travel times measured by individual users and uploaded into specialized walking-hiking websites (Wikiloc). Results show that the new procedure (Modified Tobler) reduces differences between calculated and measured travel times, which makes it suitable not only for trail managers to estimate travel times but also as a key part of pedestrian transport analysis in trail networks.     

Measuring place-based accessibility under travel time uncertainty

Travel time uncertainty has significant impacts on individual activity-travel scheduling, but at present these impacts have not been considered in most accessibility studies. In this paper, an accessibility evaluation framework is proposed for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable space-time service region (RSTR) model is introduced to represent the space-time service region of a facility under travel time uncertainty. Based on the RSTR model, four reliable place-based accessibility measures are proposed to evaluate accessibility to urban services by incorporating the effects of travel time reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, a case study using large-scale taxi tracking data is carried out. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed accessibility measures can evaluate large-scale place-based accessibility well in urban areas with uncertain travel times. Conventional place-based accessibility indicators ignoring travel time reliability can significantly overestimate the accessibility to urban services.     

蒙古野驴(Equus hemionus)昼间行为时间分配初探

于2007 年和2010 年采用焦点动物取样法研究了新疆卡拉麦里山有蹄类野生动物保护区蒙古野驴昼间行为时间分配和活动节律,共采集行为数据460 h,观察蒙古野驴2 760 头次,将蒙古野驴昼间行为分为采食、移动、警戒、休息和“其他”5 类。采用卡方检验分析不同季节各种行为时间分配,结果表明：季节因素对蒙古野驴行为时间分配存在极显著影响（χ2=79.06,df=12,P<0.01）。采用ANOVA分析同季节不同行为间差异,结果表明,春季：移动、警戒、“其他”两两间无显著差异（[WTBX]P＞0.05）,其余两两间差异显著（P＜0.05）;夏季：仅移动与“其他”间无显著差异（P＞0.05）;秋冬季：仅警戒与“其他”间无显著差异（P＞0.05）。对蒙古野驴昼间活动节律研究结果表明,蒙古野驴采食时间比例在春季各时段均较高（＞45%）,仅中午（14:00～15:00）有1个低谷（27.62%）,夏秋季则为晨昏采食模式,冬季采食峰值（87.85%）在中午时段（13:00～14:00）。休息和采食高峰在各季节交叉出现,呈现此消彼长的趋势。各季节移动主要发生在晨昏时段。蒙古野驴以特定的行为时间分配模式和活动节律适应环境条件季节性变化,如气候条件、食物资源、人为干扰、生理期、昼间长度、捕食风险等。