An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

Integration of Penman approach with complementary principle for evaporation research

Natural evaporation occurs with water transportation from an unsaturated land surface into an unsaturated atmosphere. The subprocesses at the land surface and in the atmosphere are one‐sidedly emphasized in the Penman approach and the complementary principle, in which the ratio of actual evaporation to the Penman potential evaporation is expressed as a function of the wetness state of the land surface and the atmosphere, respectively. The Penman approach and complementary principle can be integrated for completely conceptualizing the evaporation process, by expressing the evaporation ratio as a function of both the land surface and atmospheric wetness. The integrated approach has the potential to increase the accuracy of evaporation estimation while reducing the burdens of parameterization.     

利用GRACE、GPS和绝对重力数据监测斯堪的纳维亚陆地水储量变化

重力卫星GRACE(gravity recovery and climate experiment)监测斯堪的纳维亚半岛陆地水储量变化会受到冰川均衡调整(GIA)信号的严重影响。首先根据该地区绝对重力和GPS并址观测数据计算了GIA重力和垂直位移的实测线性比值,利用该比值和GPS网观测的垂直位移速度场得到了GIA重力。然后,对GRACE观测的重力变化速率进行GIA重力改正,进而可分离陆地水储量变化趋势,避免了使用GIA模型所带来的巨大不确定性,并根据观测数据完整估计了所得结果的不确定性。最后与水文模型作对比分析。结果表明,实测的GIA重力-垂直位移线性比值为0.148±0.020μGal/mm(1Gal=10-2 m/s2),该结果检验了Wahr的理论近似值且与北美实测的结果非常接近。2003年1月至2011年3月期间,斯堪的纳维亚半岛陆地水储量存在明显的增加趋势,信号的主体位于半岛南端的维纳恩湖附近,总的水量增加速率为4.6±2.1km3/a,数据观测期间的累积增加水量为38±17km3。研究结果与WGHM水文模型的结果有较好的一致性,相关系数达到0.69,而与GLDAS水文模型的相关性略小。     

一种链码跟踪与相位验证相结合的直线提取方法

提出了一种链码跟踪与相位验证相结合的直线提取方法。该方法首先针对Canny边缘图提出一种完全细化方法;其次提出一种改进的链码跟踪方法,其步骤包括检测链码端点,建立动态链码主方向确定链码跟踪方向,优先跟踪八邻域内边缘点,八邻域内无边缘点再进行八邻域外边缘点,并采用直线化分析对链码进行动态约束;最后对链码进行直线拟合及相位验证,满足条件输出直线,不满足要求的链码则重新设定端点进行跟踪直线提取。通过多种不同光学图像数据的试验结果分析表明,本文所提出的方法不仅能够精确实现边缘直线信息的拟合,并且能够解决由于白噪声及相位编组所引起的直线断裂问题。     

应用Slepian局部谱方法解算中国大陆重力场球谐模型

根据经典的球谐函数方法,为满足正交化要求,观测数据需要覆盖整个球面,而对于地表局部测量数据,则无法应用球谐方法解算重力场模型。针对此问题,采用Slepian局部谱分析方法解算中国大陆范围内的实测重力场变化数据,并以GOCE卫星球谐函数解作为已知模型,评估由于实际陆地重力测点的非均匀分布对球谐函数解的误差影响。通过计算多个阶次中国大陆局部范围的Slepian基函数分布;采用GOCE卫星获得重力场模型的前72阶球谐系数作为已知结果,评价实际测点非均匀分布的解算有效性,并针对中国大陆地区采用Slepian基函数进行解算,通过模型对比选择最优截段项数;针对2005—2008年中国大陆地区流动重力测量获得的重力场变化信号进行解算,获得了72阶重力场变化模型。     

Using low-density discrete Airborne Laser Scanning data to assess the potential carbon dioxide emission in case of a fire event in a Mediterranean pine forest

The aim of study is to map the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission of the aboveground tree biomass (AGB) in case of a fire event. The suitability of low point density, discrete, multiple-return, Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data and the influence of several characteristics of these data and the study area on the results obtained have been evaluated. A sample of 45 circular plots representative of Pinus halepensis Miller stands were used to fit and validate the model of AGB. The ALS point clouds were processed to obtain the independent variables and a multivariate linear regression analysis between field data and ALS-derived variables allowed estimation of AGB. Then, the influence of several characteristics on the residuals of the model was analyzed. Finally, conversion factors were applied to obtain the CO₂ values. The AGB model presented a R² value of 0.84 with a relative root-mean-square error of 27.35%. This model included ALS variables related to vegetation height variability and to canopy density. Terrain slope, aspect, canopy cover, scan angle and the number of laser returns did not influence AGB estimations at plot level.     

Perceptions of Local People on the Use of Nyabarongo River Wetland and Its Conservation in Rwanda

This research presents a case study on perceptions of local people on the use of Nyabrongo river wetland and its conservation in Rwanda. It critically examines the potential implications of a shift in wetland use and management practices for local people and presents empirical data from a household survey, group discussions, and observations from transect walks. Results showed that the change in the use and management regime of Nyabarongo river wetland poses substantial loss for local people in terms of provision of resources, income, and access to the wetland, so that the majority of the participants are not happy with the current use of the wetland. Research concluded that there should be participation of all stakeholders, including local people, during policy development in order to shift from command-and-control toward local stakeholder integration in decision making.     

EXPERIMENTAL APPLICATION OF A THINNING SCHEME FOR THE ASSIMILATION OF SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA IN GRAPES-3DVAR

To reduce the spatial correlation of representation error in observations and computational complexity, we propose a thinning scheme that can extract typical observations within a certain range. This scheme is applied to the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) with three-dimensional variation (3DVAR) to study the effect of the thinning radius on the assimilation results. The assimilation experiments indicate that when the ratio of the model resolution to the observational resolution is 1:3, the simulated results for precipitation are relatively good and have a relatively high equitable threat score (ETS). Moreover, the analysis errors in the temperature and the specific humidity are the smallest, the dependence of the norm gradient vector of the objective function on the number of iterations is slow, gentle, and close to 0, and the minimization results in improved conditions.     

秦岭造山带中热水沉积成矿盆地的研究思路与方法初探——兼论秦岭超大型金属矿集区的研究与勘查

以秦岭造山带中热水沉积成矿盆地为例, 讨论了热水沉积成矿盆地的研究思路与方法（１）, 在这些盆地中已发现了一批大型－超大型矿床, 也是秦岭超大型矿集区的研究原理、研究及研究内容等基本准则。提出盆地充填史、盆地内同生构造作用等研究沉积盆地形成与发展。认为秦岭热水沉积成矿盆地具有分级特征, 热水沉积岩相是主要的物质组成。总结了秦岭中（火山）热水沉积成矿盆地、深水缺氧环境中热水沉积成矿盆地、叠合盆地、复合盆地、拉分盆地、裂陷盆地等六种构造－沉积岩相时间－空间组合模式, 它们是超大型金属矿床产出部位。     

方钢管混凝土柱的三维非线性分析

本文建立了一个三维非线性有限元计算模型,旨在用来准确,有效地分析钢－混凝土组合结构,其中混凝土材料模型在于亚弹性亚弹性正交异性理论,采用Ｓａｒｇｉｎ的非线性应力－应变方程表达以及拉伸,压缩破坏面,钢单元采用等向强化的Ｖｏｎ Ｍｉｓｅｓ弹塑性模型,试验和计算比较表明该计算模型是一个比较简单但准确,有效的模型。