用CAPPI和PPI资料测定区域降水量精度比较

应用上海中心气象台７１４数字化天气雷达的体积扫描资料所得的不同高度上的ＣＡＰＰＩ资料和低仰角时ＰＰＩ资料。估算区域降水量并得到降水量分布形势。然后采用平均校准法进行了校准，最后又与用雨量计网测量的区域降水量及其分布形势作了比较，得到一些有意义的结果。     

基于准三维有限元方法建立的地震活动模型

基于有限元方法,参照细胞自动机模型,建立了一个地震活动演化的动力学模型.在这个模型中,根据边界条件和单元介质参数的分布,利用有限元方法确定各单元的应力增长速率.每个单元设定初始应力和摩擦因数,利用破裂准则可得到单元破裂所需时间.当单元破裂后,将破裂单元作为内部边界,利用有限元方法计算由于这个单元破裂对系统其他单元造成的应力调整.根据上述规则,建立一个由30×40个节点组成,在定常位移速率边界条件作用下的地震活动模型,探讨了区域应力场的动态演化、地震活动图像和各种参数变化对地震活动的影响.结果表明该模型在研究地震活动方面有一定优势并具有实用价值.     

RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN EL HATILLO, NICARAGUA: GENDER, NEOLIBERALISM AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

El Hatillo is a rural community in the Sébaco valley in Nicaragua, which suffers from an eroding resource base, high levels of poverty and malnutrition, and a high susceptibility to hazards. Structural adjustment policies have been devastating for small and subsistence farmers and have increased the level of economic, social and environmental marginalisation in rural Nicaragua. This paper explores initiatives to promote sustainable development in Nicaragua in the context of structural adjustment and environmental degradation. Drawing on qualitative research conducted in El Hatillo, it outlines the ways in which women in this community are attempting to address the multiple challenges of rural poverty and environmental risk and considers the potential of these strategies for gender equality.     

岩石受力状态对弹性波传播速度影响的初步研究

岩石所受的三向应力状态对其弹性波传播性质有一定的影响，此认识为所做的以泥质砂岩、泥岩和硅质胶结的坚硬砂岩为试样的实验所证实。为保证岩石中存在微隙，对部分试样还作了高温预热处理。实验结果表明，泥质砂岩和泥岩的Ｖ＿ｐ／Ｖ＿ｓ值几乎保持不变，但坚硬砂岩的Ｖ＿ｐ／Ｖ＿ｓ值曲线却在应力达破坏荷载的９０％左右时出现下凹现象，经热处理的硬砂岩的这一下凹现象则更突出。     

峨眉山玄武岩分布区内铂族元素异常分析及其找矿远景预测

区域地球化学填图成果表明，在中国西南川-滇-黔交界地区存在一个与产出规模巨大的峨眉山玄武岩分布范围相吻合的Pt，Pd地球化学巨省。作为地幔热柱成因的峨眉山玄武岩的铂族元素丰度虽略有偏高，但玄武岩中铂族元素很难形成可以利用的铂族矿物，故该异常是“非找矿异常”。在该区内寻找铂族元素矿床应在基性岩-超基性岩体出露较多的中岩区南段，注意沿循已知的矿床、矿化或较小型基性岩侵入体，将矿区(或岩体)的整体地质特征、地球化学特征等与典型的岩浆型铂族元素矿床相比较，进而研究、预测本矿区或本岩体的铂族元素成矿的可能性及远景规模等，寻找岩浆型铂族元素矿床，而在岩浆型矿床的周边地质体内注意寻找热液型铂族元素矿床。     

速度传感反馈地震计的参数稳定性分析

从理论上定量分析机械摆和环路滤波等开环诸参数变化对速度传感反馈地震计闭环参数的影响.研究指出,在环路设计中可半自由选取的开环阻尼取值对参数稳定性有重要影响.过大或过小的开环阻尼取值均可能造成参数稳定性急剧变差,影响地震计在只标不调的状况下长期连续稳定工作.     

南极GPS数据质量分析

以多路径误差和电离层延迟为评价指标,利用TEQC软件和QCVIEW软件对南极埃默里冰架、内陆冰盖、纳拉峡海湾、拉斯曼丘陵的实测GPS数据以及部分IGS站点的数据进行了数据质量分析,得到结论： 1)在同一站点上,L2上的多路径误差总比L1上的多路径误差要大;2)在南极不同环境下的多路径误差不同;3)纬度和太阳活动剧烈程度是影响南极地区GPS数据电离层延迟大小的两个重要因素。     

Effect of Shale Reservoir Characteristics on Shale Oil Movability in the Lower Third Member of the Shahejie Formation,Zhanhua Sag

To reveal the effect of shale reservoir characteristics on the movability of shale oil and its action mechanism in the lower third member of the Shahejie Formation(Es3l), samples with different features were selected and analyzed using N2 adsorption, high-pressure mercury injection capillary pressure(MICP), nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR), high-speed centrifugation, and displacement image techniques. The results show that shale pore structure characteristics control shale oil movability directly. Movable oil saturation has a positive relationship with pore volume for radius > 2 μm, as larger pores often have higher movable oil saturation, indicating that movable oil is present in relatively larger pores. The main reasons for this are as follows. The relatively smaller pores often have oil-wetting properties because of organic matter, which has an unfavorable effect on the flow of oil, while the relatively larger pores are often wetted by water, which is helpful to shale oil movability. The rich surface provided by the relatively smaller pores is beneficial to the adsorption of immovable oil. Meanwhile, the relatively larger pores create significant pore volume for movable oil. Moreover, the larger pores often have good pore connectivity. Pores and fractures are interconnected to form a complex fracture network, which provides a good permeability channel for shale oil flow. The smaller pores are mostly distributed separately;thus, they are not conducive to the flow of shale oil. The mineral composition and fabric macroscopically affect the movability of shale oil. Calcite plays an active role in shale oil movability by increasing the brittleness of shale and is more likely to form micro-cracks under the same stress background. Clay does not utilize shale oil flow because of its large specific surface area and its block effect. The bedding structure increases the large-scale storage space and improves the connectivity of pores at different scales, which is conducive to the movability of shale oil.     

气温变化对冬小麦生育的影响

利用驻马店市1961年10月—2002年5月冬小麦生长季内平均气温资料以及气温5年滑动平均变化曲线图，采用相关分析法，分析了驻马店市冬小麦生长季内气温变化特征，并利用1981年以后的冬小麦作物观测资料，经过对比分析，揭示了冬小麦生长发育过程中因暖温而产生的一系列变化。     

粗差验后方差的无偏估计与最优稳健估计

在正态粗差假设下导出了粗差验后方差的无偏估计,对误差工膨胀模型和误差均值移动模型,两者的无偏估计公式是相同的。这证明了李德仁验后方差的朱建军方差不是无偏的。由于偏方定义的彭方法是正态粗差假设下的最优稳健估计。