内蒙古额济纳旗红石山金矿三维成矿条件分析与成矿预测

分析了内蒙古额济纳旗红石山金矿床地质特征和控矿地质条件,总结了研究区成矿规律及找矿标志在深部的变化规律,建立了该区域的找矿地质模型,利用Surpac软件对区内地层、断裂构造、岩体、已知矿体、物化探异常等成矿预测因子进行了三维实体建模;采用立方体预测模型法对三维实体模型进行空间分割,并依据建立的找矿地质模型,给每一个立方体单元块赋相应属性值,建立数字找矿模型;进而对研究区地质、地球物理、地球化学等9个预测变量进行三维成矿有利条件分析与提取,采用三维信息法计算并统计各预测变量所包含的信息量,确定成矿有利组合的空间部位,并结合研究区内实际地质情况、已有见矿工程分布等因素圈定了3处找矿靶区;最后采用体积估计法计算得到3处找矿靶区的总资源量为4.67 t。     

云南镇康地区铅锌多金属矿成矿规律

镇康地区位于西南"三江"成矿带南段,是云南省重要的铅锌铁铜多金属矿矿集区之一。区内以铅锌矿为主,次为铁、锡,伴生铜、银;已发现超大型铅锌矿1个,中型铅锌矿3个,小型锡矿1个。文章认为区内的寒武系沙河厂组、核桃坪组及保山组碳酸盐岩地层和奥陶系是本区重要的赋矿层位,铅锌多金属矿床受构造控制明显,多分布在区域褶皱核部断裂带上,往往与夕卡岩型铁矿及夕卡岩体相伴,且产于花岗岩体与围岩接触带上。因此,区内的磁异常及区域低重力场中的次级重力高异常是寻找铅锌多金属矿的主要标志,而铅、锌、铜、银等元素的化探异常及重砂异常范围可指示铅锌矿的存在区域。     

一种实现工业数字摄影测量自动化的方法

在工业数字摄影测量中,当被测物大而复杂时,目标像片的数量可能达到数百张,像点达到几千个,因此人工去识别这些像点是不切实际的,不但费工费时而且也加大了出错率。为了实现工业数字摄影测量的自动化,引入了一种点状编码标志,讲述了其设计原理,并应用透视投影中交比不变量和仿射变换对其进行了识别。试验表明,该编码标志点设计严密,自动识别率为100%,可以满足应用要求。     

高光谱遥感影像海上舰船目标检测算法的研究

提出一种基于独立分量分析的高光谱遥感影像海上舰船目标检测方法。首先借助快速独立分量分析(FICA),将高维数据中隐藏的舰船目标信息集中投影到低维特征影像中,然后以峰度为特征度量指标选择特征影像,最后用以偏斜为指标的直方图分割方法提取舰船目标。实验证明,此算法精度较高,适用于对杂波背景中的舰船目标进行提取。     

Uncertainties in global warming science and near-term emission policies

Abstract

It is argued here that stringent, early emission reductions are necessary in order to minimize ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system’ (DAI), the stated Objective of Article 2 of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Given probability distribution functions (pdfs) for climate sensitivity and the temperature threshold for harm consistent with currently available evidence, and accepting a 10% risk of unacceptable damage as the threshold for ‘danger’, it is not possible to avoid DAI. Having adopted a precautionary approach in setting emission trajectories, the possibility arises that future resolution of uncertainties concerning climate sensitivity and the harm threshold may show the climate sensitivity to be low (1–2 K) and the harm threshold high (2 K rather than 1 K). Using a simple coupled climate-carbon cycle model, it is shown that if the climate sensitivity were to be definitively determined to be 2 K in 2020, then the emission reductions achieved by that time and planned for the next two decades are still fully needed. Only if climate sensitivity is very low (1 K) and the harm threshold is high (2 K) would the emissions achieved by 2020 not have been fully necessary. However, this would still lead to changes in ocean chemistry that are likely to be highly detrimental to marine life. Thus, when the full spectrum of impacts is considered, there is no plausible set of assumptions under which stringent near-term emission reductions are rendered unnecessary.     

Joint Implementation in Ukraine: national benefits and implications for further climate pacts

The contribution that no-lose target schemes for non-Annex I (NAI) countries could make to achieve the 2°C target is explored by accounting for the incentives of 18 NAI countries’ participation in no-lose target schemes. Using various scenarios, it is shown that implementing uniform no-lose targets as part of the burden-sharing will not lead to global emissions levels compatible with the 2°C target, because uniform no-lose targets will only be beneficial to a few NAI countries. Employing more lenient uniform no-lose targets or individual no-lose targets for large emitters could increase participation by NAI countries and decrease global emissions, global compliance costs, rents by NAI countries, and compliance costs for Annex I (AI) countries. However, the resulting global emissions levels will not be compatible with attaining the 2°C target. Achieving this target will require more stringent emissions targets for AI countries and more lenient no-lose targets for NAI countries. As such, no-lose targets should account for 20% to 47% of global emissions reductions, while due to emissions trading around two-thirds of global emissions reductions should be realized in NAI countries. Indeed, an effective solution may only require no-lose targets for five to seven of the largest NAI countries.

Policy relevance

No-lose targets are one of a number of instruments discussed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change New Market Mechanism to integrate NAI countries in global emissions reduction efforts. In contrast to binding reduction targets, which apply penalties if a target is not met, no-lose targets provide incentives for meeting a target, e.g. in the form of excess emissions certificates that can be sold on the global carbon market. The presented simulations show that no-lose targets can result in contributions from NAI countries to global emissions reduction efforts. However, the simulations also show that the necessary incentives for no-lose targets need to be adjusted. AI countries require more ambitious targets and NAI countries require less ambitious no-lose targets than proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Effective no-lose targets may only be required for five to seven of the largest NAI countries.     

The emperor's new clothes: redressing the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

US President Bush repudiated the Kyoto Protocol because, in his view, it is ‘fatally flawed in fundamental ways’. This paper evaluates seven proposals to redress the protocol according to their potential to deal with three key issues that have reinforced US intransigence: hot air, cost uncertainty and developing country participation. It argues that negotiations on intensity targets hold the most promise. Because intensity targets limit hot air, but do not limit economic growth, and a high variance of carbon intensity exists among countries with similar GDP per capita, intensity targets based on best practice levels might be agreeable to developing countries and the US. If a protocol specifying such targets were implemented, less warming would be associated with larger world GDP than would otherwise be the case, and countries' carbon intensity and emissions per capita would tend to converge to best practice levels at every stage of development.     

Global implementation of marine protected areas: Is the developing world being left behind?

While the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) has recently been evaluated in the light of bio-geographic targets, there has been no attempt to evaluate the relative conservation efforts made by the different nations with regards to their level of socio-economic development. Using information mostly gathered from the world database on protected areas (WDPA), this paper gives a comparative assessment of MPA progress in countries from different economic categories, ranging from advanced economies to least developed countries (LDCs). Potentially explanatory socio-economic and environmental factors, such as fishing activity and existence of vulnerable marine ecosystems, for variability between nations in the level of MPA implementation are also explored. Existing MPA databases demonstrate a clear gap between developed and developing nations in MPA establishment, with advanced economies accounting for two thirds of the global MPA network. Patterns of MPA use, however, remain extremely heterogeneous between countries within each development group. International agreements on marine conservation, above and beyond the influence of country socio-economic and environmental profiles, are identified as a stimulating factor to MPA implementation. The level dependence on marine resource extraction appears to impede MPA implementation, though the relationship is not statistically significant due to large heterogeneity among countries. Leading developed nations increasingly use MPAs to designate integrated and adaptive management areas, and implementation of large “no-take” reserves in relatively-pristine overseas areas continues to accelerate. These analyses highlight certain limitations regarding our ability to assess the true conservation effectiveness of the existing global MPA network and the need for improved indicators of MPA restrictions and management efforts.     

单标三角高程法跨河水准测量设计与实验分析

针对现行规范中2 km以上距离的三角高程法跨河水准测量应采用双觇板的规定,进行了单标三角高程法跨河水准测量的观测设计,并通过实验与双标三角高程法及已知高差进行比较分析。结果表明:单标三角高程法可用于2 km以上距离的跨河水准测量,其半测回中的垂直角观测组数宜增至双标法的2倍。