Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area (Findikli,NE of Turkey) by likelihood-frequency ratio and weighted linear combination models

Landslides are very common natural problems in the Black Sea Region of Turkey due to the steep topography, improper use of land cover and adverse climatic conditions for landslides. In the western part of region, many studies have been carried out especially in the last decade for landslide susceptibility mapping using different evaluation methods such as deterministic approach, landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses. The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Findikli district, Rize) located at the eastern part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey by likelihood frequency ratio (LRM) model and weighted linear combination (WLC) model and to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, landslide inventory map of the area were prepared for the years of 1983 and 1995 by detailed field surveys and aerial-photography studies. Slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from drainage lines, distance from roads and the land-cover of the study area are considered as the landslide-conditioning parameters. The differences between the susceptibility maps derived by the LRM and the WLC models are relatively minor when broad-based classifications are taken into account. However, the WLC map showed more details but the other map produced by LRM model produced weak results. The reason for this result is considered to be the fact that the majority of pixels in the LRM map have high values than the WLC-derived susceptibility map. In order to validate the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with the landslide inventory map. Although the landslides do not exist in the very high susceptibility class of the both maps, 79% of the landslides fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the WLC map while this is 49% for the LRM map. This shows that the WLC model exhibited higher performance than the LRM model.     

Development of a 3D GIS and its application to karst areas

There is a growing interest in modeling and analyzing karst phenomena in three dimensions. This paper integrates geology, groundwater hydrology, geographic information system (GIS), database management system (DBMS), visualization and data mining to study karst features in Huaibei, China. The 3D geo-objects retrieved from the karst area are analyzed and mapped into different abstract levels. The spatial relationships among the objects are constructed by a dual-linker. The shapes of the 3D objects and the topological models with attributes are stored and maintained in the DBMS. Spatial analysis was then used to integrate the data in the DBMS and the 3D model to form a virtual reality (VR) to provide analytical functions such as distribution analysis, correlation query, and probability assessment. The research successfully implements 3D modeling and analyses in the karst area, and meanwhile provides an efficient tool for government policy-makers to set out restrictions on water resource development in the area.     

Multiple discriminant analysis of the Drava River alluvial plain sediments

Three discriminant function models are raised and cross-compared in order to distinguish geochemical patterns characteristic for the Drava River floodplain sediments. Based on data representing total element concentrations in samples collected from alluvium (A), terrace (T), and unconsolidated bedrock (B) at the border of a floodplain, four element clusters emerged accounting for discrimination between the referred groups of sediments. The most prominent is contaminant/carbonate cluster characteristic for alluvium. The other two are: silicate cluster typical for unconsolidated geological substrate (Neogene sedimentary rocks); and naturally dispersed heavy metal cluster separating terrace from the former two groups. Models introducing depth intervals and single profiles as grouping criteria reveal identical sediment-heavy metal matrices. The second important issue of this paper is possibility of reclassification of samples originally assigned to one of the a priori defined groups of sediments, based on established geochemical pattern. The mapped geological units can be reconsidered by the post hoc assignments to a different group if geological border between alluvium and terrace or between terrace and bedrock can not be established geologically with absolute certainty.     

Groundwater recharge of carbonate aquifers of the Silesian-Cracow Triassic (southern Poland) under human impact

A Triassic carbonate unit has been intensively drained by zinc and lead ore mines and numerous borehole fields since the nineteenth century. Its groundwater recharge has increased due to: pumping of water from boreholes, mining activity, and urbanization. An approach to determine the amounts of the recharge at a variety of spatial scales is presented in the paper. Different methods were used to identify and quantify recharge components on a regional and local scale: mathematical modelling was performed for four aquifers included in an aquifer system, an analytical estimation based on the assumption that an average recharge is equal to the average discharge of the hydrogeological system—for six man-made drainage centres, and the method of water level fluctuation (WLF) was applied in one observation borehole. Results of modelling have been supplemented by observation of environmental tracers (δ¹⁸O, δ²H, ³H), noble gases temperatures, and ⁴He_exc in groundwater. The regional aquifer’s current recharge according to estimations performed by means of modelling varies from 39 to 101 mm/year on average. Depending on the aquifer site the average precipitation ranges from 779 to 864 mm/year. In the confined part of the aquifer average recharge ranges from 26 to 61 mm/year. Within outcrops average recharge varies from 96 to 370 mm/year. Current recharge estimated by the analytical method for man-made drainage centres varies from 158 up to 440 mm/year. High values are caused by different recharge sources like precipitation, induced leakage from shallow aquifers, and water losses from streams, water mains and sewer systems. Pumping of water, mining and municipal activities constitute additional factors accounting for the intensified recharge.     

Quantitative textural analysis of packings of elongate crystals

The spatial distribution of grains in a solidifying igneous rock controls the physical properties of the crystal mush, and in turn is controlled by the rate of crystal growth and accumulation. A predominant non-spherical habit for igneous minerals brings into question the use of spherical particles in reference packings used for quantification of spatial distribution. Furthermore, variations of crystal clustering/ordering with length scale require spatial statistics which take into account the distribution of particles beyond nearest neighbours. Using random close packings of spherocylinders, we demonstrate the importance of aspect ratio for the aggregation index (usually known as R) and show that packings of spherical particles have more structure than packings of rods. The spatial distribution functions demonstrate that the plagioclase grains in the colonnade from the Holyoke basalt are clustered on a length scale of 0.5 mm. Understanding the controls on grain spatial distribution in igneous rocks will depend on the application of these techniques to well-understood environments.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Framing in geographical analysis of environmental conflicts: Theory, methodology and three case studies

When applied to environmental concerns, framing offers a rigorous conceptual and analytic approach with potentially practical significance for dealing with complex issues relevant to geography. The purpose of this article is to introduce framing concepts, typology and modes of analysis to address issues which geographers commonly treat: disputes over land ownership and uses, competition for water resources, cultural clashes over control of territory and resources and the impact of spatial patterns and structures when siting noxious sites. Framing analysis is applied to three cases of environmental conflict in Israel and, more generally, for understanding conflicts revolving around the management of human habitats in relation to the physical environment.     

Greening as strategic development in industrial change - Why companies participate in eco-networks

Networking between companies and other regional key actors has grown into a widespread instrument for economic development since the 1990s. Participatory networks have formed the concept for many activities of Local Agenda 21. Simultaneously, economic geography has focused on network theories to explain innovation in and the economic success of regions.This article focuses on the reasons why individual actors participate in environmentally oriented information networks. The questions approached are: Does the concept of learning within networks influence a firm’s development? How do the participants interact with each other? What effects do the networks have on their environment (arenas)?The changing arenas of a firm are analysed with regard to environmental concerns. These changes need to be anticipated for reliable strategies. To gain information and knowledge about current behaviour and activities, the functions of networks as learning platforms are discussed. Drawing upon arguments from different network theories, the motivations of participating in a network are threefold: actor and firm oriented, network internal (inter-firm), and network external. From these, a generic target cube of network motivations and actions is set up.The concept is reviewed by examining 12 ‘regional environmental information-oriented corporation networks’ (RUN) in the Greater Munich Area. The empirical material reveals that this type of network does not provide a guarantee for significant improvements in a firm’s environmental behaviour. However, participants learn about best practices while pursuing explicit or implicit aims as to influence their arenas.