War,by Conservation

In this paper I argue that there has been a critical shift towards war by conservation in which conservation, security and counter insurgency (COIN) are becoming more closely integrated. In this new phase concerns about global security constitute important underlying drivers, while biodiversity conservation is of secondary importance. This is a significant break from earlier phases of fortress conservation and war for biodiversity. In order to develop a better understanding of these shifts, this paper analyzes the existing conceptual approaches, notably environmental security which seeks to understand how resources cause or shape conflict, and political ecology approaches that focus on the struggles over access to and control over resources. However, this paper indicates the limitations of these existing debates for understanding recent shifts, which require a fresh approach. I chart the rise of the narrative I call poachers-as-terrorists, which relies on the invocation of the idea that ivory is the white gold of Jihad, a phrase which is closely associated with an Elephant Action League (EAL) report in 2012 which claimed Al Shabaab used ivory to fund its operations. This narrative is being extended and deepened by a powerful alliance of states, conservation NGOs, Private Military Companies and international organizations, such that it is shaping policies, especially in areas of US geo-strategic interest in Sub-Saharan Africa. As a result conservation is becoming a core element of a global security project, with significant implications for conceptual debates and for conservation practice on the ground.     

伊犁盆地南缘中新生代构造样式与铀成矿关系

伊犁盆地是我国最早发现砂岩型铀矿的地区,近十几年来一直保持砂岩型铀矿找矿的不断突破,盆地南缘自西向东查明了一系列砂岩型铀矿床,这些铀矿床的分布与盆地南缘构造关系密切。本文总结了伊犁盆地南缘构造样式类型,分析了不同构造样式下氧化流体补给、运移规律,并结合铀矿体的空间分布,指出构造样式差异是造成砂岩型铀矿体空间分布的关键因素;从氧化流体补给窗的开启、流体的汇聚和还原性气体聚集的控制等方面讨论了构造样式对铀矿体空间定位的机制,指出单斜稳定地层中纵弯背斜是控制铀空间分布的主要构造,要注意不同构造样式约束下成矿区域的稳定型和地下水补给的多样性,在此基础上讨论了伊犁盆地南缘铀矿的找矿方向及主要矿物类型。     

三位一体找矿预测模型的表达式

三位一体找矿预测模型是勘查区找矿预测理论遵循的原则。三位是指成矿地质体、成矿结构面、成矿作用标志,一体是指矿体、矿床或矿田。可以理解为成矿地质体、成矿结构面、成矿作用标志决定矿体、矿床或矿田产出的空间位置,反映的是成矿要素与成矿产物之间的空间关系,或者空间结构模型,是由某一个成矿地质体决定的矿床成矿系统的最小单元,如某斑岩体决定的次火山热液成矿系统和同生断裂决定的热水沉积成矿系统。 根据中国地质调查局(2016)颁发的1:50 000 矿产地质调查工作指南(试行),成矿地质体是指与矿床形成在时间、空间和成因上有密切联系的地质体。成矿结构面是指赋存矿体的显性或隐性存在的岩石物理及化学性质不连续面,也就是赋存矿体的各类界面。成矿作用标志是指能够直接指示矿体赋存位置的、对找矿预测具有特殊意义的标志(中国地质调查局,2016)。矿床成岩成矿年代学及成矿作用产物与成矿地质体的空间关系表明,成矿地质体在成矿过程中,仍然主要起导矿构造的作用,尽管部分成矿现象类似于侧分泌成矿,但规模热液矿床的形成必然伴随着大规模流体沿构造通道持续或间歇性运移。完整的成矿系统必然包含源、运、储三个基本环节(翟裕生,2005),所以成矿地质体也可以表述为导矿构造,进而将三位一体找矿预测模型定性地表述为导矿构造、成矿结构面和成矿作用标志决定成矿作用产物产出的空间位置。模型的定量表示则需要研究导矿构造、成矿结构面和成矿作用标志的响应范围及其耦合关系。     

加强矿业供给侧结构性改革的初步思考

当前我国正处经济增速减缓的新常态,供给侧结构性改革应运而生。我国乃至世界的矿业更是处于发展的严冬之季,产能严重过剩,大宗商品价格持续走低。在当前形势下,我们要用新常态眼光看待矿业未来发展之路,因地制宜,着力加强供给侧改革,刻不容缓。     

干侵入对我国东部一次强飑线过程的作用分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、雷达资料、FY2E卫星资料等,对2014年7月30日至31日发生在我国东部的一次强飑线天气过程进行综合分析,并着重分析了干侵入对此次飑线过程的作用。结果表明：中层阶梯槽引导高层干冷空气向下入侵后叠加在低层暖湿气流之上,增强了大气不稳定,不稳定能量累积;低空切变线促使不稳定能量释放,是此次飑线的重要触发机制。对干侵入的分析结果表明：此次飑线过程中,干侵入来源于高空槽后下沉气流,干侵入底部风场调整使得飑线在移动过程中发生了转向。在飑线发展过程中,干侵入范围扩大、强度增强;干侵入使飑线发生区域上空空气变冷、变干,增强了大气不稳定。干侵入底部的低相当位温空气与飑线内部高相当位温空气混合是飑线长时间维持的重要原因。     

思维导图方法的教学实践

思维导图在国内外已有多项研究证明思维导图在促进学生创新思维发展上有作用。在测绘类学科的高校教学中引入思维导图这种学习和工作方法,用在测绘本科教学改革中的讲座责任制授课模式上,通过在测绘本科教学方法改革的需求分析、应用实践和学生调查统计,得出结论:思维导图用于测绘类高校教学中,有利于提高学生创新思辨和自主学习能力,有助于达到以"能力"为核心的测绘专业人才培养目标。     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新特征与依据——以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例

针对冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新性问题,以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例,采用相同开采强度下地下热水位降幅异常变化的识别方法,通过2000年以来该地下热水位年际及月际降幅与开采量和上游山区年降水量之间响应变化特征研究,结果表明:(1)冀中平原辛集地区馆陶组地下热水资源具有一定的可更新能力,与上游山区年降水量变化相关,还与地下水位埋深、当年开采引起的水位降幅大小和开采疏干层位砾粗砂岩及细砂岩占比状况有关;(2)辛集地区馆陶组地下热水大规模开采,是该地下水系统获得上游区侧向流入补给的必要条件,属于开采激发型补给,更新补给的资源数量有限;(3)从2000年以来该区地下热水水位动态变化趋势来看,目前该区地下热水资源已处于超采状态,需要压采或人工回灌增大补给,否则难以可持续开发利用。     

青海省祁连县大拉洞柏杨沟矿区煤岩层对比研究

通过研究太原组的沉积特征及聚煤变化规律,采用了标志层、煤岩层组合特征、层间距、测井曲线形态等方法,对矿区内煤层、岩层进行了综合对比。确定了该区主要煤层的赋存层位、形态、分布及变化特征,对周边地区找煤工作具有一定的指导作用。     

内蒙古大青山地区英安岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄及其构造意义

在内蒙古大青山地区逆冲推覆构造所截切的英安岩中获得锆石~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb表面年龄加权平均值为1870±19Ma,认为英安岩为华北克拉通古元古代末—新元古代一次裂解事件的产物.同时,据安山岩锆石U-Pb年龄谐和度(102)较好的锆石~(206)Pb/~(238)U表面年龄436±4Ma及英安岩锆石U-Pb年龄谐和度(104)较好的锆石~(206)Pb/~(238)U表面年龄153±2Ma和160±2Ma,表明大青山地区逆冲推覆构造存在构造复活或构造追踪现象。这一认识为大青山地区逆冲推覆构造的研究积累了新的资料,提供了新的研究思路。