STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE LANDFALLING STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CATASTROPHIC MIGRATIONS OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN CHINA

In order to clarify the statistical pattern by which landfalling strong tropical cyclones(LSTCs)influenced the catastrophic migrations of rice brown planthopper(BPH),Nilaparvata lugens(stl)in China,the data of the LSTCs in China and the lighting catches of BPH that covered the main Chinese rice-growing regions from 1979 to 2008 were collected and analyzed in this work with the assistance of ArcGIS9.3,a software of geographic information system.The results were as follows:(1)In China,there were 220 strong tropical cyclones that passed the main rice-growing regions and 466 great events of BPH’s immigration in the 30 years from 1979 to 2008.73 of them resulted in the occurrence of BPH’s catastrphic migration(CM)events directly and 147 of them produced indirect effect on the migrations.(2)The number of the LSTCs was variable in different years during 1979 to 2008 and their influence was not the same in the BPH’s northward and southward migrations in the years.In the 30 years,the LSTCs brought more obvious influence on the migrations in 1980,1981,2005,2006 and 2007.The influence was the most obvious in2007 and all of the 7 LSTCs produced remarkable impact on the CMs of BPH’s populations.The effect of the LSTCs on the northward immigration of BPH’s populations was the most serious in 2006 and the influence on the southward immigration was the most remarkable in 2005.(3)In these years,the most of LSTCs occurred in July,August and September and great events of BPH's immigration occurred most frequently in the same months.The LSTCs played a more important role on the CM of BPH’s populations in the three months than in other months.(4)The analysis on the spatial distribution of the LSTCs and BPH’s immigration events for the different provinces showed that the BPH’s migrations in the main rice-growing regions of the Southeastern China were influenced by the LSTCs and the impact was different with the change of their spatial probability distribution during their passages.The most serious influence of the LSTCs on the BPH’s migrations occurred in Guangdong and Fujian provinces.(5)The statistical results indicated that a suitable insect source is an indispensable condition of the CMs of BPH when a LSTC influenced a rice-growing region.     

引入强跟踪滤波器的 IMM 算法在导航定位解算中的应用

针对单一模型对城市机动载体运动状态估计不足的问题,本文在标准交互式多模型算法的基础上引入强跟踪滤波器,并以“当前”模型和“CV”模型作为基础模型进行交互式模型滤波。利用信号源仿真动态数据分析对比了利用单一模型算法、标准交互式多模型算法和引入强跟踪滤波器的交互式多模型算法的定位解算性能。实验结果表明：本文提出的基于强跟踪滤波器的交互式多模型算法相比于“当前”模型滤波和标准IM M 算法径向误差方差分别从19.11和16.78降低到13.24．     

长江经济带主要城市群2h出行交通圈格局特征

城市群作为城镇化高级阶段区域社会经济发展和参与国际竞争的主要空间载体,良好的交通通达性是其高质量发展的必要条件。以《交通强国建设纲要》提出的城市群2h通达目标为研究视角,以长江经济带3个国家级城市群为研究对象,选取加权平均出行时间作为测度指标并引入场强和引力模型,对比分析3个城市群所有城市与中心城市两个层级2h出行交通圈格局特征。研究发现：① 3个城市群出行交通圈均表现为从中心向外围地区呈现出由低到高连续扩大的“圈层式”空间格局特征,且长三角和成渝城市群分别形成了“>”字型和“十”字型2h出行廊道,但长江中游城市群尚未形成2h出行廊道。② 城市群中心城市2h出行交通圈的空间分布受区位条件影响较大,越接近区域几何中心则2h出行交通圈覆盖范围越大,而影响腹地受中心城市综合规模的作用明显,3个城市群各中心城市2h出行交通圈和影响腹地的空间分异显著。③ 不同城市群中心城市2h出行交通圈衔接联系水平差异显著,表现出多元的圈层叠加的经济联系格局。④ 高密度高速公路路网在提高城市群中心城市2h出行交通圈衔接联系水平中发挥重要作用,按衔接联系模式特征可将各城市群总结为多中心网络型、多中心组团型与双中心轴辐型。     

Earthquake, strong tide and global low temperature

＂La Madre＂ is a kind of upper atmospheric air current, and occurs as ＂warm phase＂ and ＂cold phase＂ in the sky of Pacific Ocean alternately. There exists this phenomenon, called ＂Oscillation Decade in the Pacific＂ （ODP）, for 20 - 30 years. It is concerned with 60 year cycle of the tides. Lunar oscillations explain an intriguing 60-year cycle in the world＇s temperature. Strong tides increase the vertical mixing of water in the oceans, drawing cold ocean water from the depths to surface, where it cools the atmosphere above. The first strong seismic episode in China was from 1897 to 1912; the second to the fifth was the in 1920-1937, 1946-1957, 1966-1980, 1991-2002, tsrectruely. The alternative boundaries of＂La Madre＂ warm phase and cold phase were in 1890, 1924, 1946 and 2000, which were near the boundaries of four strong earthquakes. It indicated the strong earthquakes closedly related with the substances＇ motion of atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere, the change of gravity potential, and the exchange of angular momentum. The strong earthquakes in the ocean bottom can bring the cool waters at the deep ocean up to the ocean surface and make the global climate cold. the earthquake, strong tide and global low temperature are close inrelntion for each othen.     

Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)

In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.     

依据GPS数据研究伽师及帕米尔东北侧1994～1998年地壳水平运动及其与强震群的关系

利用伽师强震群区及帕米尔东北侧地区 1994～ 1998年的GPS监测成果 ,用DDA方法模拟了伽师强震群前后该地区地壳运动和应力应变的变化过程。结果表明 :在此期间伽师地区的应变以南北向挤压为主 ,伽师附近最大主应变变化达到 5× 10 - 8/a ,最大剪应变变化也超过 2 .5×10 - 8/a ,明显高于周边地区。伽师强震群的发生与GPS监测成果反映的该地区地壳运动和应力应变的变化存在明显的对应关系。GPS监测成果反映出在伽师地区有一应力应变变化的集中区域。通过在伽师强震群震中分布块体中强行沿其最大剪应力方向 (NE)增加一新的破裂 ,可使该块体应力应变下降至与周围块体相均衡 ,且能量可能沿柯坪断裂向东北方向传递。新增断裂的运动呈左旋 ,并导致其所在块体呈右旋运动     

2022年门源MS 6.9地震序列特征及强余震判定

2022年1月8日青海门源发生M_S 6.9地震,基于青海地震台网对此次地震序列时空演化特征进行分析。结果表明,门源地震序列的空间展布整体上呈西段NWW、东段SE向的带状分布,且序列衰减较缓慢。另外,基于同一构造历史地震类比、h值、等待时间法等进行分析,认为门源M_S 6.9地震序列为主—余型;根据祁连地震带中东段5级以上地震最大余震发震时间统计和震级差特征分析认为,门源M_S 6.9地震的最大余震已经发生,即2022年1月12日18时20分的M_S 5.2地震。     

针对应急救援的强余震特征统计

大地震后强余震活跃,震后快速判断最大余震震级和强余震发生可能性对提高应急救援效率有重大意义。针对震后应急救援,本文根据救援存活率将震后救援期分为8个时段:震后12 h、震后24 h、震后48 h、震后72 h、震后96 h、震后120 h、震后144 h和震后168 h。对我国大陆地区1966年以来6级及以上地震强余震资料进行分时段统计,分别拟合出8个时段的最大余震震级和主震震级的经验公式;并提出震后强余震发生可能性的经验判断方法,通过本文提出的可能性指数a,依据主震震级,震后可以快速判定强余震发生的可能性。     

银额盆地蒙苏地1井钻井设计与施工

蒙苏地1井是中国地质调查局部署在银额盆地艾特格勒凹陷的一口大口径重点油气地质调查井,根据该区块地层地质概况和钻井施工技术难点,从井身结构、钻具组合、钻头选型和钻进工艺等方面对蒙苏地1井钻井工程进行了优化设计。综合采用 “简化井身结构+非常规钻具组合+常规钻头选型+强抑制性泥浆”的钻井技术方案,解决了中生界巴音戈壁组和二叠系上部地层的高硬度、可钻性差、裂缝构造易井斜及井壁失稳等一系列难题,顺利完成了该井的钻井施工任务。该井完钻井深2763.66 m,完钻口径215.9 mm,平均机械钻速3.51 m/h,成功揭示了中生界和石炭-二叠系岩石组合特征及含油气性,优质、高效、零事故完成各项目标任务。     

基于复杂网络的岩土颗粒材料分散性失稳先兆研究

岩土颗粒材料在达到Mohr-Coulomb塑性极限之前可能已经发生了没有明显局部损伤的全域准均匀破坏,即分散性失稳。近年来,网络科学工具在颗粒材料环境中的应用为研究其失稳破坏现象提供了有趣新颖的洞见。采用离散单元法对不同初始密实度的颗粒体系进行等体积应变加载路径的数值试验,发现初始状态越松散的颗粒体系越有可能发生分散性失稳;采用网络科学的理论和方法分析颗粒接触网络的拓扑结构特性和演化规律,发现颗粒材料分散性失稳的结构根源是颗粒接触网络完全崩塌。将颗粒体系划分为强、弱接触系统以构建强接触子网络、弱接触子网络和强−弱接触子网络,研究颗粒接触网络及其3个子网络的特征量演化,结果表明：当颗粒材料开始处于不稳定状态时,易受扰动的弱接触系统的部分接触先失效,导致强接触系统失去其稳定支撑作用而降低承载能力。随着加载的继续,系统通过非局部的自组织过程导致接触结构的全面崩塌,最终触发整体分散性失稳。因此,先于整体失稳的部分弱接触的失效,可视为颗粒材料分散性失稳的关键性临界征兆。