长湖浮游动物群落结构及其与环境因子的关系

为研究长湖浮游动物群落结构及其与环境因子间的关系,于2012年4月至2013年1月进行了4次调查采样。共鉴定出浮游动物67种(不包括原生动物),以轮虫种类为主(42种),其丰度与生物量均占据较大优势。浮游动物丰度的季节性差异显著,夏季最高(4412ind./L),冬季最低(831ind./L)。季节间的物种更替率大于59%,但优势种种类的季节变化不明显。优势种共8种,均为轮虫,萼花臂尾轮虫(Brachiouns calyciflorus)、针簇多枝轮虫(Polyarthra trigla Ehrenberg)是四个季节均出现的优势种,P.trigla Ehrenberg的优势度与出现频率均是各个季节的最大值,各季节这两种优势种的丰度和在总丰度的占比均超过59.13%。依据Shannon指数、Pielou指数、Margalef指数评价长湖水体处于中度污染,肥度指数评价长湖处于富营养状态。相关性分析、多元逐步回归方程、冗余分析的结果显示:水温是影响长湖浮游动物群落结构季节变化的关键因子;浮游植物表征含量chl a也是影响长湖浮游动物群落结构的关键因子,总氮、总磷通过影响浮游植物的群落结构间接地影响浮游动物的组成;能耐受较高p H的B.calyciflorus在长湖碱性水体中有较好的适应性;夏季马洪台区较低的溶解氧一定程度上限制了该区域轮虫的生长,总悬浮物通过降低溶解氧对浮游动物产生间接作用;化学需氧量对P.trigla Ehrenberg、螺形龟甲轮虫(Keratella cochlearis)等耐污种的影响较大,并对浮游动物的丰度产生正向作用。     

华南近岸海域水质评价及其影响因素

以华南沿海32个地市为研究对象,首先基于单一要素评价和综合水质指数法对其近岸海域的水环境质量进行分析,再采用典范对应分析和逐步线性回归探究了各类影响因素与水质指标间的相关性.结果表明:2017年华南近岸海域的主要污染要素为无机氮(N)、活性磷酸盐(P)和悬浮物(SS),严重超标现象主要出现在福建厦门、宁德、福州,广西钦...     

基于多元逐步回归分析的煤储层含气量预测模型——以沁水盆地为例

以沁水盆地为例,运用多元逐步回归分析方法,建立了以Langmuir体积和含气饱和度为参数的含气量预测模型;复相关系数、F检验、t检验结果表明,该模型满足线性与方差齐性的假设,拟合效果较好。运用此模型,结合多因素权重分析确定的含气饱和度和实测的Langmuir体积数据,实现了沁水盆地山西组主煤层含气量预测。对比分析显示,该含气量预测模型有一定的可行性。     

空间逐步寻优数据挖掘在遥感影像分类中的应用

在遥感地学分析模型中,由于遥感信息模糊和不确定性的特点,其特征空间中的特征分布并不完全符合特定的高斯密度分布,而是分布形状各异,相互交错,用传统模型是很难获得特征的最优分布解的,而空间逐步寻优数据挖掘方法(SOMM)是在演化寻优理论的基础上,融合知识的参数化分布函数,来逐步分离特征空间,逐步降解的获得特征树状的层次结构。结合实例,用SOMM方法对遥感影像进行分类计算,并与传统的最大似然分类方法的分类结果进行了比较。     

Preliminary study on the sea level change and its long-term prognostic method for Shanghai

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Fifteen-stage operation of gated spillways for flood routing management through artificial reservoirs

Abstract

A procedure to identify sets of operational rules for gated spillways for optimal flood routing management of artificial reservoirs is proposed. The flood retention storage of a dam having a gated flood spillway is divided into 15 sub-storages whose surface elevations are identified as critical levels. The most suitable operation set for the downstream conditions and for the dam can be chosen from many derived operation sets. The spillway gates are operated in an optimum way for any floods from very small magnitudes to the probable maximum flood (PMF), without having to forecast the actual magnitude of the incoming flood hydrograph. Decision floods are formed by dividing the PMF into 15 sub-hydrographs by 5 and 10% increments in the ranges 5–50% and 50–100% of the PMF, respectively. Many potential spillway gate openings from closed to fully open are chosen initially. As a result of a series of routing simulations of 15 decision floods, a set of 15 gate openings is determined such that all floods from very small magnitudes to the PMF may be routed without overtopping the dam crest. Next, a few more 15-stage operation rules are determined such that the gate openings of the initial stages are decreased as their critical levels are increased stepwise, with the objective of attenuating smaller floods more effectively and releasing higher outflows for larger floods close to and including the PMF. The developed model is applied to the Catalan and Aslantas dams in Turkey, both of which serve for flood mitigation as well as hydropower generation.

Citation Haktanir, T., Citakoglu, H., and Acanal, N., 2013. Fifteen-stage operation of gated spillways for flood routing management through artificial reservoirs. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1013–1031.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari     

A Study on Influence of Predictor Multicollinearity on Performance of the Stepwise Regression Prediction Equation

The prediction accuracy of the traditional stepwise regression prediction equation (SRPE) is affected by the multicollinearity among its predictors.This paper introduces the condition number analysis into the prediction modeling to minimize the multicollinearity in the SRPE.In the condition number prediction modeling,the condition number is used to select the combination of predictors with the lowest multicollinearity from the possible combinations of a number of candidate predictors (variables),and the sel...     

赤峰地区夏季干旱强度预测方法研究

夏季副高偏弱、位置偏南、中纬度盛行纬向环流以及冷涡活动偏少是造成干旱的主要环流特征。选用冬季亚洲地区环流指数、北半球极涡位置以及夏季降水的气候特征这三组预报因子,采用赤峰地区10个旗县站1959—2000年夏季(6—8月)平均降水量资料,依据当地的气候特点把干旱强度划分为轻度干旱和重度干旱,通过三组因子逐级订正的方法预报干旱强度。经过2001—2007年7年的实际应用,证实了该方法对干旱强度具有一定的预测能力。     

基于INSAR的青海玉树地震破坏程度评估

利用SAR影像所包含的相位和强度信息,将相干系数与幅度特性相结合,通过逐步回归的方法,建立了以后向散射系数、相关系数和相干系数为因子的地震破坏程度的评估模型.以该模型为基础,对青海玉树地震进行了受灾评估.     

Glacier Mass Balance in Southern Norway Modelled by Circulation Indices and Spring-Summer Temperatures ad 1781–2000

By stepwise regression analysis the accumulation, ablation, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) were modelled by circulation indices and spring‐summer temperature on six Norwegian glaciers (Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen, Rembesdalsskåka, Storbreen, Hellstugubreen and Gråsubreen). The circulation indices were derived from a gridded monthly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data set, whereas temperature series were derived from instrumental and proxy data. Analyses showed that accumulation on the western glaciers was strongly related to western airflow perpendicular to the main mountain range releasing precipitation on the glaciers. No other airflow variable significantly improved the regression. For the continental glaciers, circulating air in connection with low pressure systems was also found to be important. This may explain the lack of synchronicity in the glaciers' development in southern Norway during the Holocene. Accumulation was better modelled using the MSLP data set than by using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index as predictor. The decadal variations of accumulation, ablation, and ELA were analysed by a Gaussian low pass filter. The well‐known abundant accumulation on Norwegian glaciers during the early 1990s turned out to be unprecedented during the entire series (since 1781), whereas the accumulation of the 1960s has not been lower since the early 19th century according to model results. Ablation increased significantly from the mid‐19th century to the 1930s. The ablation maximum during the 1930s has not yet been exceeded. Also the 1930s show extremely high ELA values.