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141.
Abstract

A procedure to identify sets of operational rules for gated spillways for optimal flood routing management of artificial reservoirs is proposed. The flood retention storage of a dam having a gated flood spillway is divided into 15 sub-storages whose surface elevations are identified as critical levels. The most suitable operation set for the downstream conditions and for the dam can be chosen from many derived operation sets. The spillway gates are operated in an optimum way for any floods from very small magnitudes to the probable maximum flood (PMF), without having to forecast the actual magnitude of the incoming flood hydrograph. Decision floods are formed by dividing the PMF into 15 sub-hydrographs by 5 and 10% increments in the ranges 5–50% and 50–100% of the PMF, respectively. Many potential spillway gate openings from closed to fully open are chosen initially. As a result of a series of routing simulations of 15 decision floods, a set of 15 gate openings is determined such that all floods from very small magnitudes to the PMF may be routed without overtopping the dam crest. Next, a few more 15-stage operation rules are determined such that the gate openings of the initial stages are decreased as their critical levels are increased stepwise, with the objective of attenuating smaller floods more effectively and releasing higher outflows for larger floods close to and including the PMF. The developed model is applied to the Catalan and Aslantas dams in Turkey, both of which serve for flood mitigation as well as hydropower generation.

Citation Haktanir, T., Citakoglu, H., and Acanal, N., 2013. Fifteen-stage operation of gated spillways for flood routing management through artificial reservoirs. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1013–1031.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari  相似文献   
142.
The prediction accuracy of the traditional stepwise regression prediction equation (SRPE) is affected by the multicollinearity among its predictors.This paper introduces the condition number analysis into the prediction modeling to minimize the multicollinearity in the SRPE.In the condition number prediction modeling,the condition number is used to select the combination of predictors with the lowest multicollinearity from the possible combinations of a number of candidate predictors (variables),and the sel...  相似文献   
143.
逐步消空法在雹云识别中的应用   总被引:6,自引:2,他引:4  
介绍了用天气型、对流参数、雷达回波参数作雹云识别因子,采用逐步消空法找出雹云识别指标集合以及对雹云进行识别的具体方法。  相似文献   
144.
In situ hyperspectral reflectance data were studied at 50 bands (10 nm bandwidth) over the 400–900 nm spectral range to determine their potential for distinguishing among nine aquatic plant species: American lotus [Nelumbo lutea (Willd.) Pers.], American pondweed (Potamogeton nodusus Poir.), giant duckweed [Spirodela polyrrhiza (L.) Schleid.], Mexican waterlily (Nymphaea mexicana Zucc.), white waterlily (Nymphaea odorata Aiton), spatterdock [Nuphar lutea (L.) Sm.], giant salvinia (Salvinia molesta Mitchell), waterhyacinth [Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms] and waterlettuce (Pistia stratiotes L.). The species were studied on three dates: 30 May, 1 July and 3 August 2009. All nine species were studied in July and August, while only eight species were studied in May; giant duckweed was not studied in May due to insufficient availability. Two procedures were used to determine the optimum bands for discriminating among species: multiple comparison range tests and stepwise discriminant analysis. Multiple comparison range tests results for May showed that most separations among species occurred at bands 795–865 nm in the near-infrared (NIR) spectral region where up to six species could be distinguished. For July, few species could be distinguished amongthe 50 bands; most separations occurred at the 715 nm red-NIR edge band where four species could be differentiated. The optimum bands in August occurred in the green (525–595 nm), red (605–635 nm) and red-NIR edge (695–705 nm) spectral regions where up to six species could be distinguished. Stepwise discriminant analysis identified 11 bands in the blue, green, red-NIR edge and NIR spectral regions to be significant to discriminate among the eight species in May. For July and August, stepwise discriminant analysis identified 15bands and 13 bands, respectively, from the blue to NIR regions to be significant for discriminating among the nine species.  相似文献   
145.
Abstract

This paper refers to the quantification and prediction of the sedimentation rate of 26 hillside-dam reservoirs in Central Tunisia. The objectives of the study are to develop a simple and practical methodology to identify controlling factors of sedimentation, and to propose a regionalization from the study sites. Principal component analysis (PCA) and complementary multi-dimensional statistical methods are used to relate highly variable area-specific sediment yield to hydro-morphometric, lithological, geomorphological and anthropogenic characteristics of catchments. It appears that catchment area is not the main controlling factor of sedimentation in the studied area. The overall slope index, drainage network characteristics and runoff parameters are also important in characterizing sediment yield. Applied to the annual sedimentation rate series, PCA resulted in retaining the first three principal axes, explaining 65% of the total variance. Statistical methods showed that the overall slope index, the total drainage length, the compacity index and the runoff parameters are as important for the sedimentation quantification. This allowed a graphical clustering of the study zone into three distinct groups having similar behaviours: (i) watersheds characterized by high sediment transport rates and high runoff coefficients, (ii) basins distinguished by relatively low values of both flow discharge and sediment transport rates, and (iii) watersheds with an intermediate sediment yield, especially characterized by relatively high relief. In a second step, a multiple regression model including the four characteristic catchment properties was developed, presenting a valuable tool to predict area-specific sediment yield from catchments in central Tunisia. This model shows reasonable efficiency with an absolute prediction error of 81%.

Citation Ayadi, I., Abida, H., Djebbar, Y. & Mahjoub, M. R. (2010) Sediment yield variability in central Tunisia: a quantitative analysis of its controlling factors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(3), 446–458.  相似文献   
146.
梅泽宇  许青  康飞 《地震学刊》2013,(6):651-656,670
在大坝变形监测统计模型研究的基础上,针对传统大坝变形监测回归模型存在的不足,将逐步回归模型与智能优化算法相结合,提出.了一种基于人工蜂群算法一逐步回归分析的大坝变形监控模型。该模型以逐步回归方法为基础,利用相关性分析、多重共线性分析等方法对观测数据进行处理,进而对大坝回归模型的荷载集变量进行筛选和评价,并将改进的人工蜂群算法引入回归模型分析,对荷载集系数进行优化和重新评估。人工蜂群算法是一种新型的群体智能优化方法,具有全局智能性搜索、鲁棒性强等优点,将其引入大坝安全监控建模领域,同时为改进人工蜂群算法的局部搜索性能,引入了单纯形操作算子。实例分析表明,与同类模型相比,所提出模型在一定程度上改善了拟合效果,达到了简化模型、提高拟合精度和增强模型预测能力的目的。  相似文献   
147.
采用逐步回归法替代传统时间序列分析模型中的多项式拟合法和自回归法,仅选用对因变量影响较大的自变量建立方程,提高了模型的精度。依据桦甸市26130018号观测井2000—2008年逐月的地下水位埋深资料,分别利用传统的、改进的时间序列分析法建立模型,以2009—2010年的观测数据进行精度检验,选择较优的改进模型预测了2011—2013年逐月的地下水位。结果表明:2个模型均满足精度要求,但经过改进后,随机方程和趋势方程的相关系数分别由0.830 7和0.803 9增至0.913 5和0.970 9,拟合结果明显提高。  相似文献   
148.
利用龙川站2008-2012年地面观测资料、欧洲中心数值预报产品,采用常规统计预报方法(逐步回归),将最高(低)气温实况作为预报对象,把可能影响气温变化的气象要素作为预报因子,分月建立未来24~ 72 h最高(低)气温的MOS预报方程,通过对2013年全年的检验预报表明:未来24~72 h最高(低)气温预报平均绝对误差均在2.0℃以内.  相似文献   
149.
热带气旋路径人工神经元预报方法对比试验研究   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
分别对具有动量项BP、LM、RBF人工神经网络建立36、48、60、72小时的热带气旋路径预测模型,各用100个独立样本进行预测检验,分析了网络"学习好,预报差"的原因,解决这一问题的关键是选择合适的网络结构参数、相应的学习算法和合适的预报因子,并总结了合理应用人工神经网络建立预测模型的经验.针对人工神经网络模型不具有自动选取因子的功能,给实际应用造成困难,提出了基于RBF的逐步选取因子的算法,并进行了对比试验,表明该方法具有较高的实用价值.  相似文献   
150.
本方法从动力、统计相结合的角度出发,利用多年历史资料,采用逐步回归方法并辅以技术处理,求得非线性回归方程为PP模型的预报方程,并且利用正压模式输出的两个月数值预报产品进行了试报,结果表明该模型对重庆雾的24小时预报具有一定的能力。  相似文献   
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