A Reliability Based Expert System for Assessment and Mitigation of Landslides Hazard Under Seismic Loading

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides.     

Forest fragmentation in Massachusetts,USA: a town-level assessment using Morphological spatial pattern analysis and affinity propagation

Forest fragmentation has been studied extensively with respect to biodiversity loss, disruption of ecosystem services, and edge effects although the relationship between forest fragmentation and human activities is still not well understood. We classified the pattern of forests in Massachusetts using fragmentation indicators to address these objectives: 1) characterize the spatial pattern of forest fragmentation in Massachusetts towns using Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA); and (2) identify regional trends using archetypal towns in relation to town history, geography and socioeconomic characteristics. Six fragmentation indicators were calculated using MSPA for each town to represent patterns and processes of fragmentation. We then used these indicators and the proportion of forested land to group towns across Massachusetts with similar patterns of fragmentation. Six representative towns typify different types of forest fragmentation, and illustrate the commonalities and differences between different fragmentation types. The objective selection of representative towns suggests that they might be used as the target of future studies, both in retrospective studies that seek to explain current patterns and in analyses that predict future fragmentation trends.     

Regional‐scale sedimentation process models from airborne gamma ray remote sensing and digital elevation data

Airborne gamma ray survey data were used to provide information on potassium, thorium and uranium concentrations in surface soil and rock in arid central Australia. Spatial patterns in these radioelements allow tracing of paths of sediment at catchment scale. Survey elevation data are combined with contour data to produce digital elevation models for terrain analysis, tracing of sediment flow paths and modelling of extreme floods. Gamma ray data show consistent variation with slope, a limited range of drainage areas, and erosion/deposition models derived from the conservation of mass equation. Supply‐limited sediment transport models give a reasonable reproduction of observed radioelement distribution but some elements of the distribution pattern reflect the area inundated by 500–1000 year floods rather than the effects of simple downslope movement. Partial area sediment supply models are derived by downstream accumulation of erosion and deposition rates calculated using the conservation of mass equation with transport laws based on slope alone and stream power. Comparison with observed radioelement patterns suggests that both transport laws apply in different parts of the landscape. Regional‐scale sediment transport models will require a range of models depending on location in the landscape and event frequency. This approach may allow estimation of sediment delivery ratios. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

加速遗传算法在地下水位动态分析中的应用

提出了一种改进的遗传算法－加速遗传算法,分析了它的原理,控制参数的设置,收敛性,全局优化性能和适用性,并把它成苗地应用于地下水位动态分析中。     

温度时序资料确定地下水流速解析模型灵敏度分析

不同深度处的含水介质温度时序资料振幅比或相位滞后能用来计算地下水垂向流速,典型的解析模型是Hatch模型。为了评价Hatch模型的参数灵敏度,采用局部灵敏度分析方法确定该模型的主要影响因子及相关参数与模型响应的依存关系,再由全局灵敏度分析方法评价参数共同作用对模型计算结果的影响。灵敏度分析结果表明:Hatch模型精度的主要影响因子是测点距离（Δz）,其次是介质比热容（ρ_sc_s）和有效孔隙度（n_e）,而基准热传导系数（λ₀）和热弥散度（β）的影响甚微。基准热传导系数和热弥散度与计算流速呈负相关,其余参数则与之呈正相关。因此在实践中,需保证测点距离的准确性,而对基准热传导系数和热弥散度可取经验值。     

吐哈盆地丘东凝析气藏中侏罗统储层流动单元划分

对吐哈盆地丘东凝析气藏中侏罗统储层的流动单元的划分方法和参数选取进行探讨。针对丘东凝析低渗透气藏的储层和流体特点,纵向上对研究区中侏罗统地层进行小层精细划分,平面上应用SPSS统计分析软件对厚度、孔隙度、泥质含量、流动带指数等4个参数进行聚类分析和判别分析,将研究区中侏罗统储层砂体划分为4类流动单元。结果表明各流动单元的类型与储层物性、沉积微相具有很好的对应关系,能够客观地反映气藏储层的地质特征。虽然丘东凝析低渗透气藏中流动单元的划分和油藏中流动单元的划分没有太大差别,但是参数的选取却与油藏中的存在着明显的不同。     

土石坝拟静力抗震稳定分析的强度折减有限元法

基于拟静力抗震设计概念,提出利用强度折减有限单元法分析土石坝的抗震稳定性,给出了两种确定地震惯性力的方法：（1）依据《水工建筑物抗震设计规范》[1],并结合有关土石坝动态分布系数计算了沿坝高分布的地震惯性力;（2）直接利用土石坝有限元地震动力反应分析得到的单元节点加速度反应,依据建议的方法确定坝体各单元节点的地震惯性力。将上述计算确定的地震惯性力与其他形式的外荷载共同作用到土石坝上,采用强度折减有限元法确定土石坝坝体的拟静力抗震安全系数。对于稳定渗流期,水位降落期等不同工况,或需要考虑振动孔隙水压力作用的饱和无黏性土填筑坝等不同计算条件,给出了使用折减强度有限元法分析坝体抗震稳定性的实现途径和方法。研究表明,有限元法对边界条件、复杂断面条件和材料分区及荷载组合均具有较强的适应能力,因此,使用有限元法分析土石坝抗震稳定性具有显著的优越性。     

黄河中上游能源基地区岩溶大泉衰减原因、变化趋势及其防治对策

黄河中上游地区,自黄河青铜峡,经内蒙准格尔、山西、陕西两省至河南西部,为我国最重要的以煤炭资源为主的能源基地。随着能源基地的建设和开发,区域岩溶地下水水位连年持续下降,岩溶泉水流量衰减,引起了一系列环境地质问题,如水质恶化、生态退化等。本文从能源基地岩溶泉流量衰减问题入手,研究了能源基地区岩溶泉水流量衰减问题,提出了开展水土保持工作、合理控制地下水的开采、搞好矿坑水的综合利用及污水处理资源化等相应的防治对策。      

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of a Páramo Ecosystem in the Northern Ecuadorian Andes 1988-2007

Páramo is a term used to describe tropical alpine vegetation between the continuous timberline and the snow line in the Northern Andes. Páramo environments provide important species habitat and ecosystem services. Changes in spatial extent of the páramo ecosystem at Pambamarca in the Central Cordillera of the northern Ecuadorian Andes were analysed using multi-temporal Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite data. The region suffered a loss of 1826.6 ha or 20% of the total area at a rate of 100 ha/annum during 1988-2007 period. It is found that permanent páramo cover decreased from 8350 ha in 1988 to 5864 ha in 2007 at a fairly constant rate(R2=0.94). This loss is attributed to expansion of commercial agriculture and floriculture in the valleys coupled with increased population pressure. Land at higher elevations has been cleared for small scale agriculture. Loss of the páramo ecosystem will exert a number of negative impacts on ecosystem services and livelihoods of the local population at Pambamarca.     

卫星测高混合边值问题的球谐级数解法

研究了球界面下卫星测高问题的解法,利用有限逼近方法得到了下列结论：若陆地部分是球冠,则卫星测高问题的解可以转换成关于球谐级数位系数的线性方程组,并且位系数的阶和次是以分离形式出现的,从而确保该解法具有实用意义. 利用重力场360阶模型进行模拟计算的结果表明：该解法得到的位系数的相对精度达到了10－１１. 同时证明了常用的Stokes问题、Dirichlet问题、Neumann问题可以看成卫星测高问题的特殊情况.