综合气象观测系统业务运行综合评估技术研究

综合气象观测网运行监控系统是我国气象探测设备运行保障的实时业务系统.文章以装备技术保障工程理论为基础,按可靠性、维修性、保障性、业务性、经济性等多个范畴,从装备运行状态、装备性能参数、探测数据质量、通信传输、供应保障、维护维修等方面,提出了针对我国综合气象观测网中各类设备的运行、维护和保障等工作进行综合评估的技术方法,...     

三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较

利用1957-2003年山西省30个测站逐月、逐年降水量、平均气温资料、降水距平百分率、帕尔默指数和Z指数等三种干旱指数的计算方法和判定标准,分别在山西省北部、中部、南部和全省的旱涝状况进行判定的基础上,对三种干旱指数的判定结果进行了比较和相关分析。结果表明：（1）从旱涝年发生频次来看,降水距平百分率判别干旱的趋势可信...     

Polychaete/amphipod ratio as an indicator of environmental impact related to offshore oil and gas production along the Norwegian continental shelf

Benthic faunal data is regularly collected worldwide to assess the ecological quality of marine environments. Recently, there has been renewed interest in developing biological indices able to identify environmental status and potential anthropogenic impacts. In this paper we evaluate the performance of a general polychaete/amphipod ratio along the Norwegian continental shelf as an environmental indicator for offshore oil and gas impacts. Two main trends are apparent: first, a contamination gradient is discernible from where production takes place compared to stations 10,000 m away. Second, the quality of the marine environment has improved over time. These results are consistent with monitoring reports employing a combination of uni- and multi-variate statistics. Thus, we consider this ratio as a relatively simple, useful and potentially cost-effective complement to other more demanding assessment techniques. Because of its strong theoretical basis, it may also be useful for detecting ecological change as a result of other activities.     

Assessment of Heavy Metal Contamination of Wetland Soils from a Typical Aquatic–Terrestrial Ecotone in Haihe River Basin,North China

Surface soils were collected in the aquatic–terrestrial ecotone (ATE) of Yongnianwa wetland, downstream of Haihe River basin of North China in June of 2007. Samples were subjected to a total digestion technique before they were analyzed for total concentrations of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn to investigate their pollution levels in the ATE. The contamination index, integrated contamination index, geoaccumulation index, toxic units, and sum of toxic units were adopted to assess the heavy metal contamination levels and ecotoxicity, respectively. The results showed all the selected element concentrations in upland soils of the ecotone were relatively higher than those in the lowland soils. No Cr pollution was observed in all soil samples, but almost all samples were slightly polluted by Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn except for Site 1. The contamination indexes and geoaccumulation indexes consistently presented no contamination for Site 1 and slight contamination for other sites. The ΣTUs increased from lowland to upland, but the whole level of toxicity in this ecotone was relatively low.     

Assessment of Metal Pollution in Water and Surface Sediments of the Seyhan River,Turkey, Using Different Indexes

The aim of this study was to assess the level of heavy metals (Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) contamination and enrichment in the surface sediments of the Seyhan River, which is the receiving water body of both treated and untreated municipal and industrial effluents as well as agricultural drainage waters generated within Adana, Turkey. Sediment and water samples were taken from six previously determined stations covering the downstream of the Seyhan dam during both wet and dry seasons and the samples were then analyzed for the heavy metals of concern. When both dry and wet seasons were considered, metal concentrations varied significantly within a broad range with Al, 7210–33 967 mg kg^?1 dw; Cr, 46–122 mg kg^?1 dw; Cu, 6–57 mg kg^?1 dw; Fe, 10 294–26 556 mg kg^?1 dw; Mn, 144–638 mg kg^?1 dw; Ni, 82–215 mg kg^?1 dw; Pb, 11–75 mg kg^?1 dw; Zn, 34–146 mg kg^?1 dw in the sediments while Cd was at non‐detectable levels for all stations. For both seasons combined, the enrichment factor (EF) and the geo‐accumulation index (I_geo) for the sediments in terms of the specified metals ranged from 0.56 to 10.36 and ?2.92 to 1.56, respectively, throughout the lower Seyhan River. The sediment quality guidelines (SQG) of US‐EPA suggested the sediments of the Seyhan River demonstrated “unpolluted to moderate pollution” of Cu, Pb, and Zn, “moderate to very strong pollution” of Cr and Ni. The water quality data, on the other hand, indicated very low levels of these metals suggesting that the metal content in the surface sediments were most probably originating from fine sediments transported along the river route instead of water/wastewater discharges with high metal content.     

基于随机二元指标的边坡稳定性分析

考虑岩土体抗剪强度参数的变异性,综合极限平衡法和可靠性理论构建了安全系数概率密度分布函数模型。结合实际工程特点,以安全系数大于临界值为标准构建有效区,将有效区安全系数均值与对应可靠度相乘,得到以安全系数和可靠度为随机二元指标的有效安全系数。以有效安全系数为定量指标,将边坡宏观特征现象与定量分析相联系,构建意义更为明确的边坡稳定性分析及评价方法。通过工程实例对比了有效安全系数与传统评价指标之间的差异。所得结论可为工程建设提供参考和借鉴。     

汶川地震中建筑震害衰减特征及抗震性能分析

通过对汶川地震中170个调查点的震害指数进行统计分析,得到了从Ⅵ度到Ⅺ度中各个烈度区内的平均震害指数值和方差,结果表明在Ⅶ到X度区平均震害指数与烈度表基本相符,分析了Ⅵ度区和Ⅺ区内平均震害指数偏高和偏低的原因,指出前者主要因为调查点分布的原因,而后者则可能还受到该烈度区大小划分的影响.在断层距50 km内震害指数高、离...     

县(市)绝对地震应急能力评估方法的初步研究

县(市)地震应急能力的高低直接关系到中国整个地震应急工作的成效.从县(市)绝对地震应急能力的内涵分析出发,结合汶川地震灾区县(市)地震应急能力实地调研工作取得的认识,首先初步构建了县(市)绝对地震应急能力指标体系框架;然后以四川省县(市)为例,在遵循科学性、系统优化和可操作性原则的基础上,构建了围绕着1个目标层,设定5...     

Seismic design factors for RC special moment resisting frames in Dubai, UAE

This study investigates the seismic design factors for three reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings with 4, 16 and 32-stories in Dubai, UAE utilizing nonlinear analysis. The buildings are designed according to the response spectrum procedure defined in the 2009 International Building Code (IBC’09). Two ensembles of ground motion records with 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (10/50 and 2/50, respectively) are used. The nonlinear dynamic responses to the earthquake records are computed using IDARC-2D. Key seismic design parameters are evaluated; namely, response modification factor (R), deflection amplification factor (Cd), system overstrength factor (Ωo), and response modification factor for ductility (Rd) in addition to inelastic interstory drift. The evaluated seismic design factors are found to significantly depend on the considered ground motion (10/50 versus 2/50). Consequently, resolution to the controversy of Dubai seismicity is urged. The seismic design factors for the 2/50 records show an increase over their counterparts for the 10/50 records in the range of 200%-400%, except for the Ωo factor, which shows a mere 30% increase. Based on the observed trends, period-dependent R and Cd factors are recommended if consistent collapse probability (or collapse prevention performance) in moment frames with varying heights is to be expected.     

热带海温异常对东南亚夏季风爆发的影响

通过季风指数Im定义了能表征东南亚地区降水实况的东南亚夏季风指数,根据东南亚夏季风指数测算出东南亚夏季风爆发的平均时间为5月7日.利用东南亚夏季风指数分析热带海温场及垂直速度场的变化后发现,在东南亚夏季风爆发的前期秋、冬季节,中东太平洋地区以及中西印度洋地区的冷海温有利于东南亚地区夏季风的提前爆发.当中东太平洋地区是冷(暖)海温时,对应着纬向的Walker环流及季风环流圈强(弱),东南亚地区的对流也强(弱),则东南亚地区夏季风爆发早(迟).