烟威渔场盐度预报及分析

本文以我国北黄海的烟威渔场为研究对象,采用优选因子场预报模式,对盐度的时空变化进行预报试验。文中对所采用的统计预报方法,作了简要介绍。对影响本海区盐度变化的显著因子及预报结果作了初步分析。预报试验表明:预报的总体平均绝对误差为0.27‰,预报相对误差在18％左右,预报误差小于0.5‰的站数占总站数的85％,预报趋势与实测资料基本一致。     

Siltation Prediction for Navigation Channels and Harbour Basins on Muddy Beach

- This paper, after briefly reviewing the experimental research on sediment transport on muddy beach since the 1950s, improves and perfects the method for forecasting siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins which was first put forward in China by the authors. In consideration of silty sediment and sand, some factors in forecasting methods have been changed and modified. Consequently, the modified methods can be used either to compute siltation in navigation channels and harbour basins on muddy beach or to compute siltation and scouring in navigation channels and harbour basins on both silty beach and sandy beach. The verification of field data from eleven large, medium and small natural harbours shows a good agreement between the forecasting by the modified method and the natural conditions. Finally, the paper deals with the rational utilization of water area after the construction of the West Dyke in Lianyungang, the maintenance of water depth of the navigation channel at the entrance, siltation distribution, siltation in the navigation channel and harbour basin for ships of 100 thousand tonnnage. Results once again prove that the prospect of constructing Lianyungang Harbour into a deepwater harbour is bright.     

Seasonal and Spatial Variations of Iceberg Drift off Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, Detected by Satellite Scatterometers

Seasonal and spatial variations of iceberg drift were studied using continuous satellite scatterometer images off Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Generally, iceberg drift speed showed a westward increase to the Greenwich Meridian. Seasonal variations of the drift speed were high in autumn—early winter and low in spring, and their magnitudes also increased westward. Seasonal variations of the drift speed were significantly correlated with variations of sea levels at Syowa and Mawson Stations, and hence qualitatively consistent with geostrophic current variations. Thus, the scatterometer data are demonstrated to be useful in monitoring iceberg trajectory and oceanic current variations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Fatigue Behavior of Plain Concrete Under Biaxial Compression: Experiments and Theoretical Model

The effects of different lateral confinement stress on the fatigue behavior of and cumulative damage to plain concrete are investigated experimentally. Eighty 100 mm x 100 mm x 100 mm specimens of ordinary strength concrete are tested under constant- or variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure in two orthogonal directions. A fatigue equation is developed by modifying the classical Aas-Jakobsen S-N equation for taking into account the effect of the confined stress on fatigue strength of plain concrete. The results of variable-amplitude fatigue tests indicate that the linear damage theory proposed by Palmgren and Miner is unreasonable in the biaxial stress state. A nonlinear cumulative damage model that could model the effects of the magnitude and sequence of variable-amplitude fatigue loading and lateral confinement pressure is proposed on the basis of the evolution laws of the residual strains in the longitudinal direction during fatigue tests. The residual fatigue life predic     

遥感与GIS支持下的海洋渔业空间分布研究——以东海为例

基于海洋渔业多年来生产实践所表明的海洋渔场与海洋水文要素密切相关性,将研究区的遥感融合信息与生产数据进行GIS空间配准,同时建立了诸多要素数据的空间聚类模式,利用该模式提取了水文信息和中心渔场信息相关联的空间分布规律的隐伏信息,由此阐述了实现海洋渔业现代化,应用空间遥感融合信息和GIS支持下指导海洋渔业生产的渔情预报有着重要意义.     

“数字海底”系统建模中的关键技术研究

基于“数字海底”系统的理论基础研究和在海底科学应用中的具体实践,提出了“数字海底”的涵义、系统组成和体系结构,对空间数据管理技术、基于XML的WebGIS空间数据表达技术、复杂海底三维建模技术、多源信息的一体化集成显示技术、虚拟现实技术等“数字海底”系统建模中的关键技术进行了探讨,为从事海底资源研究和开发的人员提供各个层次的参考或帮助.     

Aliasing due to sampling of the Adriatic temperature, salinity and density in space

High-resolution underway temperature and conductivity measurements collected by R/V Knorr during winter and spring 2003 are used to characterize errors associated with spatial aliasing in the northern and central Adriatic Sea. During winter, 99th percentile temperature, salinity and density errors were 0.62 °C, 0.25 and 0.12 kg/m³ (0.25 °C, 0.10 and 0.05 kg/m³) for sampling at 10 km (5 km) horizontal resolution, respectively. The corresponding values in spring were 1.31 °C, 0.50 and 0.40 kg/m³ (0.93 °C, 0.25 and 0.22 kg/m³) for the 10 km (5 km) sample spacing, respectively. The largest errors were associated with energetic regions over the shallow, western Adriatic, in front of the Po River mouth and off the tip of the Istrian peninsula. The deeper eastern basin exhibited smaller errors. The variability of errors in time and space reflected the variability of small-scale density features, characterized by wavelengths as small as 2 km in winter and 1 km in spring and being more pronounced in the western and northern parts of the Adriatic. As these results indicate that errors associated with undersampling can be considerable, they should be taken into account while planning future CTD measurements in the region.     

海岛旅游效率空间格局演变及影响因素研究 ——以中国12个海岛县(区)为例

旅游产业是海岛地区的重要产业之一，借助 DEA 模型测度 12 个海岛县 （区） 的旅游效率，采用组合方法对海岛旅游效率的空间特征演变进行刻画，并通过 EVIEWS 软件分析海岛旅游效率的影响因素。 （1） 海岛旅游综合效率总体不高，技术效率是海岛旅游效率发展的主要驱动力，规模效率水平较低，海岛旅游发展能力未得到全面发挥。 （2） 海岛县 （区） 之间旅游效率总体差异不大，相对差异明显。海岛旅游效率空间状态演变由不稳定趋向于稳定，可能存在“贫困陷阱”和“俱乐部趋同”现象。 （3） 经济发展水平、生态环境、科技信息对海岛旅游效率的发展起到积极的推动作用，产业结构、交通条件、城镇化是海岛旅游效率发展的约束性因素。