基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.     

The role of marine spatial planning in sea use management: The Belgian case

The expansion of offshore activities and the increasing need to meet international and national commitments to biodiversity conservation have led to an enhanced interest in marine spatial planning (MSP) as a tool for sea use management. Several European countries, on their own initiative or driven by European legislation and policy, have taken global leadership in implementing MSP. This article will discuss the Belgian experiences with MSP. It will give a short historical overview based on legal developments and review the implementation process of a ‘Master Plan’ as a spatial management policy for the Belgian Part of the North Sea. Additionally, this article will reflect on the research that has been done in Belgium to apply a land-use planning approach to the marine environment. The MSP process in Belgium shows that a spatial approach to sea use management is possible despite the lack of a legal zoning framework. However, it concludes that a legal basis for MSP, in addition to the current permit system, would provide a more strategic and integrated framework for ecosystem-based, sea use management.     

珠江口沉积物酸挥发性硫化物与重金属生物毒性的研究

研究了2003年10月采于珠江口5个站位的沉积物剖面酸挥发性硫化物(AVS)和同时提取的重金属(SEM:Pb,Zn,Cu,Cd,Ni)。其中,站位1、2位于中滩,其沉积物的AVS含量变化范围较小,为0.25—4.06μmol.g-1;站位3、4位于西滩,其沉积物的AVS含量变化范围较大,为0—26.09μmol.g-1。中滩和西滩沉积物的AVS含量均随深度增加。西滩表层沉积物的AVS含量接近于零,这可能与该水域较强的底层流和沉积物的再悬浮作用有关。站位5位于珠江口外侧,其表层沉积物的AVS含量相对较高,且垂向变化较小,可能是还原性沉积物间歇性再悬浮后重新沉积的结果。站位1、2和5沉积物中同时提取的重金属含量大体在0.95±0.2μmol.g-1范围内,随深度增加略呈下降趋势;而西滩沉积物重金属含量相对较高,为1.43—2.42μmol.g-1,且在一定深度范围内随深度增加呈明显下降的趋势,表明珠江口西滩沉积物中的重金属污染有加重的趋势。对AVS/SEM摩尔比值和单个金属的毒性效应研究显示,珠江口内尤其是西滩的表层沉积物存在重金属污染,对其中生活的底栖生物具有潜在的毒性效应。     

Spatial patterns and environmental risks of ringnet fishing along the Kenyan coast

Ringnet fishing began in the early 20th century and is practised worldwide, mainly to target nearshore pelagic species. The method was introduced to Kenya’s coastal waters by migrant fishers from Tanzania. However, the impacts of this fishing gear remain poorly assessed. We assessed the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort and its possible effects on ecosystem components, such as coral reefs, marine megafauna and marine protected areas, on the south coast of Kenya. We tracked 89 ringnet fishing trips made from December 2015 to January 2016 and used spatial multicriteria analysis to determine hotspots of possible environmental risks. The results showed that habitat type and bathymetric profile influenced the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort. Mixed seagrass and coral habitats had the highest concentration of the effort. Most of the habitats in the study area were moderately exposed to the impacts of the ringnet fishery. The study identifies high-risk areas that require spatial measures to minimise possible environmental risks of the gear both to habitats and to endangered sea turtles.     

东海区近海强风预报模式

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。     

The Ectoparasitic Gastropod Boonea (= Odostomia) impressa: Population Ecology and the Influence of Parasitism on Oyster Growth Rates

Abstract. Boonea (= Odostomia) impressa is a common ectoparasite of oysters. In the laboratory, small oysters (Crassostrea virginica) parasitized by natural densities of B. impressa produced 75 % less new shell than unparasitized oysters. Shell deposition rates of previously parasitized oysters increased significantly after all B. impressa were removed. Thus, the decrease in growth rate, although significant, apparently was not permanent. B. impressa preferentially parasitized small, living oysters (≤2.5cm) in the field, even though a higher percentage of large, living oysters (>2.5cm) was available. The snails maintained an aggregated distribution on the oyster reef. The number of B. impressa per oyster clump was positively correlated with the number of living oysters per clump, however some clumps with few or no living oysters had many B. impressa. Thus, food availability only partially explained the pattern of distribution. B. impressa was very mobile. About 50 % of the population moved in one week. Reproduction occurred throughout the year with a peak period in May. Recruitment was greatest in July, however new recruits were observed throughout the year. The reduction in growth rate of parasitized oysters, the snaiľs propensity towards parasitizing small oysters and the snail's tendency to be contagiously distributed suggests that B. impressa potentially exerts a significant influence on the population structure and health of oyster populations.     

浙北地区旱涝预报问题探讨—一种汛期降水量长期预报方法

本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。