Hydrogeology of thermal waters in Viterbo area, central Italy

A conceptual hydrogeological model of the Viterbo thermal area (central Italy) has been developed. Though numerous studies have been conducted on its geological, geochemical and geothermal features, there is no generalized picture defining the origin and yield of the hydrothermal system. These latter aspects have therefore become the objectives of this research, which is based on new hydrogeological and geochemical investigations. The geological setting results in the coexistence of overlapped interacting aquifers. The shallow volcanic aquifer, characterized by fresh waters, is fed from the area around the Cimini Mountains and is limited at its base by the semiconfining marly-calcareous-arenaceous complex and low-permeability clays. To the west of Viterbo, vertical upflows of thermal waters of the sulphate-chloride-alkaline-earth type with higher gas contents, are due to the locally uplifted carbonate reservoir, the reduced thickness of the semiconfining layer and the high local geothermal gradient. The hot waters (30–60°C) are the result of deep circulation within the carbonate rocks (0.5–1.8 km) and have the same recharge area as the volcanic aquifer. The upward flow in the Viterbo thermal area is at least 0.1 m³/s. This flow feeds springs and deep wells, also recharging the volcanic aquifer from below.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico

The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change.     

Asking the right questions: environmental conflict in the case of Azerbaijan

This paper contributes an empirical test of key themes of the literature on natural resource conflict. Survey and interview data from an ongoing project in Azerbaijan provide insights into an unexpected lack of conflict in Azerbaijan related to the environment, resources and energy despite the predictions of resource conflict literature. We contend that questions about public perceptions about the environment and other daily concerns are critical if we are to understand who is likely (or unlikely) to be involved in conflict and why. The data presented in this paper demonstrate that Azerbaijani citizens rank environmental and resource issues among their immediate concerns and their top concerns for the country. However, compared to other day-to-day concerns such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and economic concerns, environment-related concerns do not appear to be sufficient to motivate widespread violent conflict or citizen dissent related to environmental or natural resource conditions.     

Centennial to millennial geomagnetic secular variation

A time-varying spherical harmonic model of the palaeomagnetic field for 0–7 ka is used to investigate large-scale global geomagnetic secular variation on centennial to millennial scales. We study dipole moment evolution over the past 7 kyr, and estimate its rate of change using the Gauss coefficients of degree 1 (dipole coefficients) from the CALS7K.2 field model and by two alternative methods that confirm the robustness of the predicted variations. All methods show substantial dipole moment variation on timescales ranging from centennial to millennial. The dipole moment from CALS7K.2 has the best resolution and is able to resolve the general decrease in dipole moment seen in historical observations since about 1830. The currently observed rate of dipole decay is underestimated by CALS7K.2, but is still not extraordinarily strong in comparison to the rates of change shown by the model over the whole 7 kyr interval. Truly continuous phases of dipole decrease or increase are decadal to centennial in length rather than longer-term features. The general large-scale secular variation shows substantial changes in power in higher spherical harmonic degrees on similar timescales to the dipole. Comparisons are made between statistical variations calculated directly from CALS7K.2 and longer-term palaeosecular variation models: CALS7K.2 has lower overall variance in the dipole and quadrupole terms, but exhibits an imbalance between dispersion in   g ¹₂  and   h ¹₂  , suggestive of long-term non-zonal structure in the secular variations.     

Net Energy Payback and CO2 Emissions from Three Midwestern Wind Farms: An Update

This paper updates a life-cycle net energy analysis and carbon dioxide emissions analysis of three Midwestern utility-scale wind systems. Both the Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) and CO₂ analysis results provide useful data for policy discussions regarding an efficient and low-carbon energy mix. The EPR is the amount of electrical energy produced for the lifetime of the power plant divided by the total amount of energy required to procure and transport the materials, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The CO₂ analysis for each power plant was calculated from the life-cycle energy input data. A previous study also analyzed coal and nuclear fission power plants. At the time of that study, two of the three wind systems had less than a full year of generation data to project the life-cycle energy production. This study updates the analysis of three wind systems with an additional four to eight years of operating data. The EPR for the utility-scale wind systems ranges from a low of 11 for a two-turbine system in Wisconsin to 28 for a 143-turbine system in southwestern Minnesota. The EPR is 11 for coal, 25 for fission with gas centrifuge enriched uranium and 7 for gaseous diffusion enriched uranium. The normalized CO₂ emissions, in tonnes of CO₂ per GW_eh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively.     

A geochronological approach to understanding the role of solar activity on Holocene glacier length variability in the Swiss Alps

We present a radiocarbon data set of 71 samples of wood and peat material that melted out or sheared out from underneath eight presentday mid‐latitude glaciers in the Central Swiss Alps. Results indicated that in the past several glaciers have been repeatedly less extensive than they were in the 1990s. The periods when glaciers had a smaller volume and shorter length persisted between 320 and 2500 years. This data set provides greater insight into glacier variability than previously possible, especially for the early and middle Holocene. The radiocarbon‐dated periods defined with less extensive glaciers coincide with periods of reduced radio‐production, pointing to a connection between solar activity and glacier melting processes. Measured long‐term series of glacier length variations show significant correlation with the total solar irradiance. Incoming solar irradiance and changing albedo can account for a direct forcing of the glacier mass balances. Long‐term investigations of atmospheric processes that are in interaction with changing solar activity are needed in order to understand the feedback mechanisms with glacier mass balances.     

Effects of fracture lineaments and in-situ rock stresses on groundwater flow in hard rocks: a case study from Sunnfjord, western Norway

Systematic field mapping of fracture lineaments observed on aerial photographs shows that almost all of these structures are positively correlated with zones of high macroscopic and mesoscopic fracture frequencies compared with the surroundings. The lineaments are subdivided into zones with different characteristics: (1) a central zone with fault rocks, high fracture frequency and connectivity but commonly with mineral sealed fractures, and (2) a damage zone divided into a proximal zone with a high fracture frequency of lineament parallel, non-mineralized and interconnected fractures, grading into a distal zone with lower fracture frequencies and which is transitional to the surrounding areas with general background fracturing. To examine the possible relations between lineament architecture and in-situ rock stress on groundwater flow, the geological fieldwork was followed up by in-situ stress measurements and test boreholes at selected sites. Geophysical well logging added valuable information about fracture distribution and fracture flow at depths. Based on the studies of in-situ stresses as well as the lineaments and associated fracture systems presented above, two working hypotheses for groundwater flow were formulated: (i) In areas with a general background fracturing and in the distal zone of lineaments, groundwater flow will mainly occur along fractures parallel with the largest in-situ rock stress, unless fractures are critically loaded or reactivated as shear fractures at angles around 30° to σ_H; (ii) In the influence area of lineaments, the largest potential for groundwater abstraction is in the proximal zone, where there is a high fracture frequency and connectivity with negligible fracture fillings. The testing of the two hypotheses does not give a clear and unequivocal answer in support of the two assumptions about groundwater flow in the study area. But most of the observed data are in agreement with the predictions from the models, and can be explained by the action of the present stress field on pre-existing fractures.