A New Scheme for Predicting Leaf Onset in Summer-Green Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere

A modified thermal time model(MTM) was developed to reproduce the leaf onset for summer-green vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. The model adopts the basic concept of a thermal time model(TM) in that leaf onset is primarily triggered by growing degree days(GDD). Based on global phenology data derived from satellite observations, a new parameterization for the critical model parameter Tb(i.e., baseline temperature for GDD calculation) has been introduced, and the spatial distribution of Tb was calculated. Simulations of leaf onset during 1982–2000 in the range 30–90°N showed a significant improvement of MTM over the standard TM model with constant Tb. The mean error and mean absolute error of the climatological simulation were 1.11 and 6.8 days, respectively, and 90% of the model error(5th and 95 th percentiles) was between-12.4 and 13.7 days.     

蒸发对比观测及折算系数

利用邢台国家基准气候站1992-2001年4-10月E-601B型与小型蒸发器10年蒸发量观测资料,分别进行了对比分析、离差分析和线性回归分析.结果表明:①两种蒸发器测定的平均蒸发量小型为232.9mm.E 601B型为117.4 mm,差值为115.5 mm.偏大率98.4％;②两种蒸发量4-10月的折算系数为0.504,折算系数与相对湿度、日照时数和风速等气象条件有关;③统计了历年E 601B型4-10月蒸发量的气候估计值,可为刑台地区的气候评价、水量平衡分析和水资源调查等提供依据,并为邢台地区有效利用长序列小型蒸发资料提供了应用途径.     

自适应换站算法及其在长距离机载GPS动态相对定位中的应用

提出采用＂自适应换站＂法来解决单基线处理模式难以满足长距离动态定位的问题。该方法的主要思想是：整个解算过程始终保持单基线的动态定位模式,当发现流动站与原参考站间的距离大于流动站与其他参考站间的距离时,自动更换周围最近的参考站作为新参考站;对换站前后的数据设置一定时间的重叠段,利用等价消参法将换站前后的数据进行严格的自适应融合,以保持整个解算过程的连续性。通过对实测机载数据的解算,证明该方法不仅可以克服因载体飞行距离过远而导致的定位精度下降,而且能够避免因换站所引起的前后解的不连续,计算结果表明该方法的定位精度约为2 cm。     

濮阳小震集中区地震重定位及发震构造分析

利用濮阳周边数字地震台网近十年的震相观测报告数据及3级以上地震事件的波形记录,基于人工地震宽角反射/折射剖面的速度模型,采用Hypo2000地震定位法对研究区内1级以上287次地震事件进行绝对定位。同时,以Hypo2000绝对定位结果为初始位置,对濮城镇附近约25 km范围内的153个一级以上地震进行双差相对定位,获得更为准确的相对位置关系。定位研究结果表明:重新定位后研究区的小震震丛在震中和震源深度剖面上均呈现出两个分支:主支地震群沿聊—兰断裂分布,由少数地震组成的分支则分布于黄河断裂东侧。结合深地震反射剖面解释结果,推断濮城镇小震震丛的发震构造主要以聊—兰断裂为主,西部少数地震分支的发震断层为黄河断裂带,同时小震活动亦与油田开采注水活动密切相关。     

以基线长度变化率为约束估算VLBI站的垂直形变率

基于NNR-NUVEL-1A地球板块运动模型和ITRF2000地球参考架的三维VLBI站速度矢量,采用实测的VLBI基线长度变化率作为约束,重新估计了部分国际VLBI站的局部或区域性地壳的垂直形变,并与国际地球参考架ITRFs解和VLBI全球解GLB2003,VTRF2003和VTRF2005的结果进行了比较。结果表明,欧亚板块的URUMQI站和太平洋板块的KWAJAL26站,南极OHIGGINS站的垂直形变率、ITRFs解和VLBI全球解存在6-15mm/a的差异,北美YUMA站可能有15-31mm/a 的垂直形变率,而美国西部太平洋板块的San Francisco(PRESIDIO)站的垂直形变率还有待进一步的研究。此外,SC-VLBA,CRIMEA和EFLSBERG站的垂直形变率、ITRFs解和VLBI全球解的差约为1-6mm/a。用不同方法得到的VLBI站的水平形变率解有较好的一致性。     

应变分析法与GPS网优化设计

本文借助于弹性力学应变分析理论，提出ＧＰＳ网应变强度分析法，建立了对应于椭球微分坐标系的“位移－应变”数学模型，分析了ＧＰＳ模拟网应变强度的分布情况，得出一些有益的结论。     

The Study of Kuiper Belt Objects With ESO and ISO

Amajor objective of the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) is the determination of the sized and albedoes of several objects in the "Kuiper disc".The method by which this will be achieved is described.It is shown that the unknown shapes and surface thermal properties proviede additional complications to the interpretation of ISO data.The requirement for ground-based measurements of the visual light curves of these objects is demonstrated and the implications of the results of the ISO observ Vations is discussed.     

改进的最优窗宽理论对年径流量的插值预测研究——以黄河利津等站为例

针对小样本数据造成年径流量预测效果不理想的情况,以及非对称和非正态资料的处理问题,引入信息扩散和模糊映射思想,同时运用遗传算法改进最优窗宽理论,建立了新的扩散插值模型。该模型通过对零散数据点的信息进行模糊扩散,进而实现对有限数据点信息向其邻近区域点的概率插值。选取黄河利津站为例,根据其近70 a(1942—2011年)径流量实测数据,进行了缺损数据的插值和预测试验,同时与正态扩散插值模型进行对比分析,结果表明:1)预测值能较好地模拟实际径流序列的波形变化,对丰水年(如2007年)和枯水年(如2009年)的预报都比较准确;2)中长期预报(10a)平均相对误差仅为11.59%,相较传统方法有较大的改进;3)以黄河流域2个站点(花园口和兰州)和长江流域的3个站点(朱沱、宜昌和大通)年径流量预测试验以及海温资料的插值试验作为补充,验证了该算法的有效性和普适性。该模型可为实际水文数据资料的客观分析和中长期预报提供参考。     

Spatial mining of migration patterns from web demographics

Volunteered Geographic Information, social media, and data from Information and Communication Technology are emerging sources of big data that contribute to the development and understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of human population. However, the inherent anonymity of these crowd-sourced or crowd-harvested data sources lack the socioeconomic and demographic attributes to examine and explain human mobility and spatiotemporal patterns. In this paper, we investigate an Internet-based demographic data source, personal microdata databases publicly accessible on the World Wide Web (hereafter web demographics), as potential sources of aspatial and spatiotemporal information regarding the landscape of human dynamics. The objectives of this paper are twofold: (1) to develop an analytical framework to identify mobile population from web demographics as an individual-level residential history data, and (2) to explore their geographic and demographic patterns of migration. Using web demographics of Vietnamese–Americans in Texas collected in 2010 as a case study, this paper (1) addresses entity resolution and identifies mobile population through the application of a Cost-Sensitive Alternative Decision Tree (CS-ADT) algorithm, (2) investigates migration pathways and clusters to include both short- and long-distance patterns, and (3) analyze the demographic characteristics of mobile population and the functional relationship with travel distance. By linking the physical space at the individual level, this unique methodology attempts to enhance the understanding of human movement at multiple spatial scales.     

考虑围岩破坏条件时优化小净距隧道最小净距的研究

小净距隧道由于不受地形条件以及总体线路线型的限制,较连拱隧道有施工工艺简单、造价较低等优点,越来越受到青睐。用有限单元法对小净距隧道不同中柱厚度进行数值模拟,通过格里菲斯破坏判据以及德鲁克-普拉格判据,拟合出最大拉应力及各判据屈服函数与净距的拟合曲线,在保证其稳定的基础上,对小净距隧道最合理净距做出分析。