Cokriging for enhanced spatial interpolation of rainfall in two Australian catchments

Rainfall data in continuous space provide an essential input for most hydrological and water resources planning studies. Spatial distribution of rainfall is usually estimated using ground‐based point rainfall data from sparsely positioned rain‐gauge stations in a rain‐gauge network. Kriging has become a widely used interpolation method to estimate the spatial distribution of climate variables including rainfall. The objective of this study is to evaluate three geostatistical (ordinary kriging [OK], ordinary cokriging [OCK], kriging with an external drift [KED]), and two deterministic (inverse distance weighting, radial basis function) interpolation methods for enhanced spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall in the Middle Yarra River catchment and the Ovens River catchment in Victoria, Australia. Historical rainfall records from existing rain‐gauge stations of the catchments during 1980–2012 period are used for the analysis. A digital elevation model of each catchment is used as the supplementary information in addition to rainfall for the OCK and kriging with an external drift methods. The prediction performance of the adopted interpolation methods is assessed through cross‐validation. Results indicate that the geostatistical methods outperform the deterministic methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall. Results also indicate that among the geostatistical methods, the OCK method is found to be the best interpolator for estimating spatial rainfall distribution in both the catchments with the lowest prediction error between the observed and estimated monthly rainfall. Thus, this study demonstrates that the use of elevation as an auxiliary variable in addition to rainfall data in the geostatistical framework can significantly enhance the estimation of rainfall over a catchment.     

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Kalpin MS5.3 Earthquake Sequence of December 1, 2013 and Anomalies before the Earthquake

This paper introduces the basic parameters, focal mechanism solutions and earthquake sequence characteristics of the Kalpin M_S5.3 earthquake sequence of December 1, 2013, and analyzed seismic activity before the earthquake, the adjacent tectonic features and the precursory anomaly at fixed points within a range of 200km. Research indicates:(1) The earthquake occurred on Kalpin fault, the source rupture type is thrust faulting with sinistral strike-slip component. (2) The earthquake sequence is mainshock-aftershock type, with the aftershock distribution attenuating quickly and trending NE. (3) Abnormal seismic activity before the earthquake was characterized by seismically nesting quiescence of M_S2.0-4.0 earthquakes, seismic quiescence of M_S4.0 earthquakes and seismic belts of M_S3.0 earthquakes in the Kalpin block, abnormal enhancement zone of moderate earthquakes on Puchang fault and seismological parameters. (4) Anomalies of precursory observation data at fixed stations are mainly characterized by mutation. Apart from the borehole tiltmeter in Halajun, the spatial distribution of other abnormal precursors showed a phenomenon of migration from the near field to far field and from the epicenter to the peripheries.     

小高层住宅结构方案--大开洞剪力墙与异型柱框剪结构对比分析

通过对某小区小高层住宅2种结构方案的综合讨论,分析了小高层住宅的合理结构型式,提出了设计建议可供工程设计参考。异型柱框架-剪力墙结构框架柱布置灵活、隐蔽性好,但其柱截面不规则、计算理论不成熟、抗震能力较差、构造措施不理想、而且建筑自振周期长,侧向位移大,难以用于较高的高层住宅和抗震烈度较高的地区;大开洞剪力墙结构受力明确、计算理论成熟,又有较为精确的计算程序,而且墙厚可以在规范允许的范围内减薄,从而进一步降低了工程造价。通过2种方案比较,认为大开洞剪力墙体系与异型柱框剪结构相比,配筋总量基本接近,但其侧移较小,具有较好的延性,可应用于小高层住宅和地震烈度较高地区并可取得显著经济效益。     

在滑移减震住宅楼中设备专业设计的特点及其分析

本文提出了在抗震、减震建筑中设备专业的重要性,介绍了某一滑移减震住宅楼的设备专业设计,对其设计特点进行了总结和归纳及理论分析,得出了在滑移减震住宅楼中设备专业设计的经验及今后需要改进的方面。     

干旱荒漠区综合物化探方法寻找铜多金属矿

为了研究在干旱荒漠区矿产检查工作中的有效物化探方法组合,实现地区找矿突破,以内蒙古黑鹰山地区某矿产检查调查区为例,探寻物化探方法寻找铜多金属矿的工作方法技术.调查区开展了1∶1万地质测量、大功率激电、高精度磁测及1∶5万热磁组分土壤测量面积工作.通过数据处理,圈定了2处激电异常和5处磁异常,区内也出现具有多元素组合异常...     

九江-瑞昌5.7级地震调查及其思索和启示

扼要介绍了该次地震基本特征,分析了房屋破坏和地震地表变形的可能原因,指出在中国东部尤其是以往被视为少震弱震的地区完善地震监测设施、加强地震预测预报研究、普及避震抗震知识、注重建构筑物尤其是民居群选址工作和落实必要的抗震结构措施的必要性和紧迫性。     

马斯克林高压的变化特征

利用历史天气图和NCEP再分析资料,普查了1980～2002年出现在华北平原地区的回流天气过程.依据500 hPa环流形势,对华北平原的回流天气形势分为两种:两槽一脊型和高纬低压带型.针对不同的天气分型对产生回流天气的动力条件、水汽来源进行了合成诊断分析.结果表明:涡度和散度的垂直分布与一般的降水过程不同,低层存在辐散和反气旋环流;自东北南下经渤海回流到华北平原的空气是比较干的.该文分析结果有助于预报业务人员了解回流天气,提高华北回流天气的预报准确率.     

综合气象观测运行监控业务及系统升级设计

通过对综合气象观测运行监控业务及运行监控系统现状的分析,提出了运行监控业务的发展设想,并对运行监控系统升级做了科学的设计。结果指出,运行监控业务将成为装备保障工作的核心中枢,具有监控、指挥、调度、管理功能,应形成设备监控、维修保障、装备供应与评估业务关联互动的业务体系。运行监控系统需突破目前依赖观测资料质量检查为主要手段的技术,建立以设备自身状态信息为主,故障维修业务填报信息和观测资料检查等多元信息相互校验的技术,实现监控、维修保障、装备供应的信息联动。     

安徽省休宁—歙县整装勘查区晚侏罗世逆冲推覆构造特征及其与成矿作用关系

通过野外地质调查结合大地电磁测深综合构造解释,在休宁—歙县金多金属矿整装勘查区及邻区厘定出发育于晚侏罗世的较大规模逆冲推覆构造,其由逆冲断层、逆冲岩席、原地岩系、构造窗及伴生的牵引褶皱等组成。该逆冲推覆构造发育于"屯溪—休宁"红层盆地南缘,表现为晚元古代浅变质火山-碎屑岩系逆冲推覆于中侏罗统洪琴组碎屑岩之上。逆冲推覆构造由一系列分支逆断层组成,以前展式叠瓦状逆冲为特征,断层前缘陡立,向下变缓。逆冲推覆构造呈北东走向展布,勘查区内延伸可达40 km,推覆体面积大于600 km²。构造窗出露位置结合钻探、物探揭示,逆冲位移为2.0~8.0 km。根据逆冲断层时空配套以及岩浆活动与波及的沉积地层,判断晚侏罗世逆冲推覆构造活动时间为163.5~149.0 Ma。通过逆冲断层擦痕观察及古应力场分析,认为该期逆冲推覆构造形成于华南板块向北强烈挤压的区域动力学环境。逆冲推覆构造为成矿前构造,其与之后发生的伸展构造对岩浆的侵入及含矿热液的流通起着重要的作用,控制了整装勘查区内金、银、铅锌等中低温元素的分布与富集成矿。     

甘肃阳山金矿整装勘查区成矿与找矿关键科学问题

以阳山金矿为核心的甘肃阳山整装勘查区是中国107片整装勘查区之一。勘查区位于中央复合造山带中段西秦岭南缘,该区构造-岩浆演化复杂,成矿地质条件优越。区内以阳山、新关、关牛湾、塘坝等为主的金矿床,经过近20年的地质勘查和科研工作,取得了重要进展,目前勘查区正处于找矿勘查实现更大突破的关键时期。文章在系统梳理前期勘查和研究成果基础上,并经野外详细调查和分析,提出制约整装勘查区找矿突破的关键科学问题:基过于勘查区所处的大地构造环境和复杂造山过程,需从全新角度认识勘查区成矿地质环境和成矿作用的演化;基于野外勘查新发现的地质事实,进一步查明区内多期构造-岩浆活动与成矿的时空、成因联系和耦合关系,厘定多期成矿作用叠加改造及其对成矿产物的影响;从整装勘查区乃至区域成矿带巨量金聚集的角度,深化巨量成矿物质来源研究;全面分析阳山整装勘查区内典型金矿床特点,并通过与国内外典型矿床的对比研究,确立区内金矿床的成因类型和勘查类型;以区内复杂构造演化为脉络及其对成矿的控制研究,提炼主要控矿因素和找矿勘查标志;面向找矿突破的总体目标,全面总结勘查区、矿田和矿床等不同层次的成矿规律,系统全面评价勘查区资源潜力和找矿勘查方向。