GPS姿态测量中模糊度搜索方法的确定与比较

GPS载波相位观测值作为高精度观测量在姿态测量中得到广泛应用。姿态测量系统中,基线长度可以通过提前量测精确求得。作为约束条件,可以用于模糊度搜索,提高模糊度搜索效率和准确度。本文介绍了传统的LAMBDA方法,且在此基础上提出了附有基线长度约束的LAMBDA搜索方法,并比较了两者的搜索效率。     

野外大长度量值传递稳定性与可靠性分析

因瓦基线尺是国家野外大长度量值传递的法定标准器,本文通过对一组因瓦基线尺多年的检定资料、基线场的多次测量成果以及与维塞拉光波干涉仪测量成果的比较分析,论述我国野外大长度量值传递的稳定性与可靠性.     

差分GPS水下定位系统的解析法网形分析

基于差分GPS水下定位系统的双曲线定位模型,推导了极坐标系下定位结果的解析表达式,并进一步给出了水面基线网的网形、基线精度以及水声距离测量精度对定位结果影响的分析。结果表明,采用非辐射网形分布,双曲线定位模型存在明显的不稳定区;采用辐射网形基线分布,在基线网的范围内,平面定位精度较均匀;无论采用何种基线网形分布,深度方向的弱约束必然导致深度方向存在显著的误差。     

A tectonic stress map of China and adjacent regions from earthquakes occurred during 2000～2004

Earthquake focal mechanism solutions provide the basic information about the present-day regional tectonics stress distribution, which controls the activities of crustal faults. Therefore, continued efforts for updating the da-tabase of earthquake focal mechanism solutions are quite valuable and important. The international lithosphere program initiated the ″world stress map project″ (Zoback, 1992) since 1980′s. During this project, worldwide studies and measurements of present-day regional…     

不同型式暗支撑短肢剪力墙抗震性能试验研究

本文选取短肢剪力墙结构体系中较为薄弱的抗震构件“一”形短肢剪力墙，采用不同的暗支撑型式进行了两个1／2缩尺的带暗支撑短肢剪力墙构件的低周反复荷载试验，比较分析了它们的承载力、刚度、延性、滞回特性、耗能能力及破坏机制，建立了其承载力计算模型与方法。计算结果与实测值符合较好。     

西北区东部寒潮天气短期预报

分析了西北区东部寒潮短期预报的气候概况和环流特征，对不同类型寒潮个例进行归纳总结，组合成预报规则，建立了短期寒潮预报模式，输入计算机得出有无寒潮天气预报     

变刚度钢管混凝土短柱隔震结构弹塑性动力分析

采用HBTA2.5程序,对一变刚度钢管混凝土短柱隔震结构进行了弹塑性时程分析。分析结果表明,其隔震装置的水平变形和耗能能力可以大大减轻地震对结构的影响。提出钢管混凝土短柱隔震结构在工程应用将有很好的发展前景。     

利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料,覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明,在此37年时间内,等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟,其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近,主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位,假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件,则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件,由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件,而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明,由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区,因此,主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k,m之间存在强烈的相关性,利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围,可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围,提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合,80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望,因此,利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.     

一种快速获取GPS控制网精确WGS-84坐标方法

详细介绍了一种快速求取GPS控制网的精确WGS-84坐标的方法。首先选择三个天空通视条件较好、分布合理的控制网点,与附近的IGS跟踪站进行长基线相对定位或者直接进行静态精密单点定位,求得三点精确的WGS-84坐标,然后将这三个点作为已知点在WGS-84坐标系下进行三维约束平差,可求得控制网其它点精确的WGS-84坐标,这样求得网点的WGS-84坐标具有厘米级精度。     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.