Burst strain disturbance—A new test study on fracture precursor

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静海台地磁短周期变化异常与其附近地震的关系

近年来的一些研究表明,由于地城前孕震区地下介质的电磁结构的变化,将导致地磁短周期转换函数发生异常变化。本文通过对１９９１年唐山５．２、５．６级地城前后静海台地磁短周期转换函数参数的计算及其结果的分析和研究,提取出了可靠的地震短临前兆信息,确立了将其应用于唐山地区５级以上的震预报的短临异常特征及其指标。     

强夯地基效应及加固机制浅析

强夯地基效应,是指经强夯处理使地基土的结构形式,强度和变形大小,及其作用过程发生的改变。通过对强夯过程中一系列的现象分析,揭示强夯地基效应的形成机制,对强夯地基效应的三个方面及其之间的联系进行分析,其结论对于强夯处理设计和加固机制的认识有较大意义。     

NEAR-FAULT DISPLACEMENT AND DEFORMATION OBTAINED FROM ONE-KILOMETER-LONG FAULT-CROSSING BASELINE MEASUREMENTS-A PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENT AT 2 SITES ON THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK

The current and conventional fault-crossing short baseline measurement has a relatively high precision, but its measurement arrays usually fail to or cannot completely span major active fault zones due to the short length of the baselines, which are only tens to 100 meters. GNSS measurement has relatively low resolution on near-fault deformation and hence is not suitable for monitoring those faults with low motion and deformation rates, due to sparse stations and relatively low accuracy of the GNSS observation. We recently built up two experimental sites on the eastern boundary of the active Sichuan-Yunnan block, one crossing the Daqing section of the Zemuhe Fault and the other crossing the Longshu section of the Zhaotong Fault, aiming to test the measurement of near-fault motion and deformation by using fault-crossing arrays of one-kilometer-long baselines. In this paper, from a three-year-long data set we firstly introduce the selection of the sites and the methods of the measurement. We then calculate and analyze the near-field displacement and strain of the two sites by using three hypothetical models, the rigid body, elastic and composed models, proposed by previous researchers. In the rigid body model, we assume that an observed fault is located between two rigid blocks and the observed variances in baseline lengths result from the relative motion of the blocks. In the elastic model, we assume that a fault deforms uniformly within the fault zone over which a baseline array spans, and in the array baselines in different directions may play roles as strainmeters whose observations allow us to calculate three components of near-fault horizontal strain. In the composed model, we assume that both displacement and strain are accumulated within the fault zone that a baseline array spans, and both contribute to the observed variances in baseline lengths. Our results show that, from the rigid body model, variations in horizontal fault-parallel displacement component of the Zemuhe Fault at the Daqing site fluctuate within 3mm without obvious tendencies. The displacement variation in the fault-normal component keeps dropping in 2015 and 2016 with a cumulative decrease of 6mm, reflecting transverse horizontal compression, and it turns to rise slightly(suggesting extension)in 2017. From the elastic model, the variation in horizontal fault-normal strain component of the fault at Daqing shows mainly compression, with an annual variation close to 10^-5, and variations in the other two strain components are at the order of 10^-6. For the Longshu Fault, the rigid-body displacement of the fault varies totally within a few millimeters, but shows a dextral strike-slip tendency that is consistent with the fault motion known from geological investigation, and the observed dextral-slip rate is about 0.7mm/a on average. The fault-parallel strain component of the Longshu Fault is compressional within 2×10^-6, and the fault-normal strain component is mainly extensional. Restricted by the assumption of rigid-body model, we have to ignore homolateral deformation on either side of an observed fault and attribute such deformation to the fault displacement, resulting in an upper limit estimate of the fault displacement. The elastic model emphasizes more the deformation on an observed fault zone and may give us information about localizations of near-fault strain. The results of the two sites from the composed model suggest that it needs caution when using this model due to that big uncertainty would be introduced in solving relevant equations. Level surveying has also been carried out at the meantime at the two sites. The leveling series of the Daqing site fluctuates within 4mm and shows no tendency, meaning little vertical component of fault motion has been observed at this site; while, from the rigid-body model, the fault-normal motion shows transverse-horizontal compression of up to 6mm, indicating that the motion of the Zemuhe Fault at Daqing is dominantly horizontal. The leveling series of the Longshu site shows a variation with amplitude comparable with that observed from the baseline series here, suggesting a minor component of thrust faulting; while the baseline series of the same site do not present tendencies of fault-normal displacement. Since the steep-dip faults at the two sites are dominantly strike-slip in geological time scale, we ignore probable vertical movement temporarily. In addition, lengths of homolateral baselines on either side of the faults change somewhat over time, and this makes us consider the existence of minor faults on either side of the main faults. These probable minor faults may not reach to the surface and have not been identified through geological mapping; they might result in the observed variances in lengths of homolateral baselines, fortunately such variations are small relative to those in fault-crossing baselines. In summary, the fault-crossing measurement using arrays with one-kilometer-long baselines provides us information about near-fault movement and strain, and has a slightly higher resolution relative to current GNSS observation at similar time and space scales, and therefore this geodetic technology will be used until GNSS networks with dense near-fault stations are available in the future.     

沿海GNSS观测网中BERNESE软件处理方案比较

采用BERNESE软件"OBS-MAX"和"SHORTEST"两种独立基线生成方式和三种网平差基准定义方法制定出6种GNSS数据后处理方案,分别对中国沿海GNSS业务化观测网2009年与2011年的两批数据处理,并从外符合和内符合精度两个方面进行分析比较。结果表明:采用"OBS-MAX"独立基线生成方式得出的坐标精度更优,尤其是在原始观测数据质量不高的情况下;在网平差基准定义上,采用固定解得出的坐标内符合精度优于最小约束解,但其外符合精度较差。     

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雷达技术支持下的福州市地铁沿线形变监测

近年来,由于地铁等地下工程大规模的建设产生了严重的地表沉降,从而诱发许多地质灾害,严重阻碍了中国城市化进程。因此,采用高精度雷达监测技术,对城市地质灾害监测及风险评估具有重要意义。本文利用SBAS-InSAR技术,基于24景X波段TerraSAR数据和32景C波段Sentinel-1数据,时间跨度分别为2013年7月至2015年8月、2015年7月至2018年2月,对地铁建设完成后的福州市区地表沉降进行长时间系列形变监测。监测结果表明,研究区域内的最大沉降速率为-12 mm/a,在整个观测周期内发现了8个沉降漏斗。并对这些区域进行进一步的时间序列分析,其中有3个区域呈现出地质灾害初期的特征,并且地表沉降存在进一步加剧的可能。     

A New Scheme for Predicting Leaf Onset in Summer-Green Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere

A modified thermal time model(MTM) was developed to reproduce the leaf onset for summer-green vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. The model adopts the basic concept of a thermal time model(TM) in that leaf onset is primarily triggered by growing degree days(GDD). Based on global phenology data derived from satellite observations, a new parameterization for the critical model parameter Tb(i.e., baseline temperature for GDD calculation) has been introduced, and the spatial distribution of Tb was calculated. Simulations of leaf onset during 1982–2000 in the range 30–90°N showed a significant improvement of MTM over the standard TM model with constant Tb. The mean error and mean absolute error of the climatological simulation were 1.11 and 6.8 days, respectively, and 90% of the model error(5th and 95 th percentiles) was between-12.4 and 13.7 days.     

特殊天气城市复杂环境温度观测疑误数据的合理性分析

对温度观测资料进行质量控制时,僵值和突变是常见的疑误类型,针对城市复杂环境中僵值和突变疑误数据进行研究,对降低城市自动站温度资料质量控制的误检率有重要价值。文章针对城市复杂环境（以上海世博园为例）中18个自动气象站一年（2010年5月至2011年4月）逐时温度资料进行质量控制,着重探讨僵值及突变疑误数据的分布特征和可能原因。结果表明：（1）僵值疑误数据集中出现在冬季夜间,局地性强。阴天或多云天气,通风不佳的测站感热项较小,易出现僵值过程,最长持续11 h。（2）温度突变疑误数据可分“突升”和“突降”两类,“突升”集中出现在秋冬季,而“突降”集中在春夏季;“突升”集中出现在日出前后,而“突降”主要出现在午后至夜晚,“突升”局地性强而“突降”各站间趋同性较强。分析发现,城市复杂环境下,日照突然增加或减少以及午后短时强降水是导致温度突变疑误数据的主要原因。因此,这些“疑误”数据是城市复杂环境影响或特定天气条件导致的,为真实有效的观测资料。针对城市复杂环境下的温度观测资料开展质量控制时,需结合观测环境等元数据进一步甄别。     

Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.