Experimental research on reservoir sensitivity to stress and impacts on productivity in Kela 2 Gas Field

Kela 2 Gas Field, with high formation pressure (74.35MPa), high pressure coefficient (2.022) and difficulty of potential test and evaluation, is the largest integrated proved dry gas reservoir in China so far and the principal source for West-East Gas Development Project. In order to correctly evaluate the elastic-plastic deformation of rocks caused by the pressure decline during production, some researches, as the experiment on reservoir sensitivity to stress of gas filed with abnormal high pressure, are made. By testing the rock mechanic properties, porosities and permeabilities at different temperature and pressure of 342 core samples from 5 wells in this area, the variations of petro-physical properties at changing pressure are analyzed, and the applicable inspection relationship is concluded. The average productivity curve with the reservoir sensitivity to stress is plotted on the basis of the research, integrated with the field-wide productivity equation. The knowledge lays a foundation for the gas well productivity evaluation in the field and the gas field development plan, and provides effective techniques and measures for basic research on the development of similar gas fields.     

Applicability of a Backprojection Algorithm to Reconstruct Images of Subsurface Horizontal Planes for Laboratory Experiments in Electrical Resistance Tomography

This paper describes the use of a backprojection algorithm to reconstruct subsurface images of the electrical resistivity in horizontal planes parallel to the surface. The algorithm can be applied to detect buried objects such as tanks or pipes and possible leakages from them. Two imaging strategies are compared: juxtaposition of vertical planes, and 3D reconstruction from the sensitivity matrix corresponding to the entire volume whose surface is explored. The electrode arrays used for voltage measurement are the dipole–dipole array and a modified Schlumberger array. A personal computer controls current injection, electrode switching, and voltage detection. The system injects 1 kHz, 20 V peak-to-peak square waveforms, thus avoiding electrode polarization effects. Experimental laboratory measurements show that the algorithm detects localized objects such as an insulating sphere and a conductive cylinder immersed in water. Furthermore, covering half of the cylinder by a rubber sleeve to simulate a nonconductive leak, yields a distinct image for the leak. The backprojection algorithm does not need any regularization parameter and it is very fast in inverting the sensitivity matrix because it approximates the inverse matrix by its transposed. The dipole–dipole array usually yields a lower overall pixel error than the modified Schlumberger array but both allow the detection of simulated underground leaks.     

Economic valuation of policies for managing acidity in remote mountain lakes: Examining validity through scope sensitivity testing

No Abstract. .The following two amendments concern the above mentioned article that appeared electronically Online First on June13, 2005 (this issue, pp. 274–291).1. the first name of the author Cooper is Philip (and not Phillip).2. the correct grant reference number is EVK1-CT-1999-00032 (instead of: EVK1-CT-2002-00121).     

The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater vulnerability mapping: A GIS and fuzzy rule based integrated tool

Contamination of groundwater has become a major concern in recent years. Since testing of water quality of all domestic and irrigation wells within large watersheds is not economically feasible, one frequently used monitoring strategy is to develop contamination potential maps of groundwater, and then prioritize those wells located in the potentially highly contaminated areas for testing of contaminants. However, generation of contamination potential maps based on groundwater sensitivity and vulnerability is not an easy task due inherent uncertainty. Therefore, the overall goal of this research is to improve the methodology for the generation of contamination potential maps by using detailed landuse/pesticide and soil structure information in conjunction with selected parameters from the DRASTIC model. The specific objectives of this study are (i) to incorporate GIS, GPS, remote sensing and the fuzzy rule-based model to generate groundwater sensitivity maps, and (ii) compare the results of our new methodologies with the modified DRASTIC Index (DI) and field water quality data. In this study, three different models were developed (viz. DI_fuzz, VI_fuzz and VI_{fuzz_ped}) and were compared to the DI. Once the preliminary fuzzy logic-based (DI_fuzz) was generated using selected parameters from DI, the methodology was further refined through VI_fuzz and VI_{fuzz_ped} models that incorporated landuse/pesticide application and soil structure information, respectively. This study was conducted in Woodruff County of the Mississippi Delta region of Arkansas. Water quality data for 55 wells were used to evaluate the contamination potential maps. The sensitivity map generated by VI_{fuzz_ped} with soil structure showed significantly better coincidence results when compared with the field data.     

Climatic response of thick leaf spruce (Picea crassifolia) tree-ring width at different elevations over Qilian Mountains, northwestern China

Tree-ring cores of thick leaf spruce (Picea crassifolia) taken from four sites at different elevations, in the middle of the Qilian Mountains, in the arid and semi-arid region of northwestern China, were used to develop four tree-ring width chronologies using standard dendrochronological methods. Results indicate that with increasing altitude the chronologies’ year-to-year variations decreased. Hence, the sensitivity of the tree-ring chronologies to climate decreases with altitude. Further analysis showed that the significant limiting factor on tree growth is spring precipitation. Measurements of stomata density and leaf dry weight suggest the species’ ecological adaptation strategy changes with elevation. At high elevation the metabolic rate of thick leaf spruce decreases, thus showing the effect of the climate.     

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.     

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating isolated and riparian wetland modules in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform: model performance and diagnosis

Mathematical modelling is a well‐accepted framework to evaluate the effects of wetlands on stream flow and watershed hydrology in general. Although the integration of wetland modules into a distributed hydrological model represents a cost‐effective way to make this assessment, the added value brought by landscape‐specific modules to a model's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics remains unclear. The objectives of this paper were the following: (i) to present the adaptation of PHYSITEL (a geographic information system) to parameterize isolated and riparian wetlands; (ii) to describe the integration of specific isolated wetland and riparian wetland modules into HYDROTEL, a distributed hydrological model; and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the updated modelling platform with respect to the capacity of replicating various hydrograph characteristics. To achieve this, two sets of simulations were performed (with and without wetland modules), and the added value was assessed at three river segments of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada, using six general goodness‐of‐fit indicators and 14 water flow criteria. A sensitivity analysis of the wetland module parameters was performed to characterize their impact on stream flows of the modelled watershed. Results of this study indicate the following: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly increase the capacity of HYDROTEL to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) the updated modelling platform allows for the explicit assessment of the impact of wetlands (e.g. typology and location) on watershed hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.