中国石油安全评价及建议

石油安全对一个国家的经济发展具有重大意义。随着中国经济的持续快速增长,以及受国内石油资源短缺、石油地缘政治等因素的影响,国内石油供需矛盾进一步加剧,石油安全问题日益显现。为科学地评价中国石油安全的程度,先从国内资源禀赋、国内生产能力、国际市场可得性和国家应急保障能力4个方面设计了石油安全评价指标体系;然后,再采用德尔菲法、主成分分析法,选取国内原油储采比、国内原油储量替代率、国内石油消费对外依存度、国内石油进口集中度、国际原油价格和国内石油储备水平6个要素指标,构成一个新的综合指标,即石油安全度;最后,以石油安全度为工具,对中国近年来石油安全的形势进行了定量评价。     

Assessment of Geological Security and Integrated Assessment Geo‐environmental Suitability in Worst‐hit Areas in Wenchuan Quake

Abstract: The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and geo-hazards triggered by the earthquake caused large injuries and deaths as well as destructive damage for infrastructures like construction, traffic and electricity. It is urgent to select relatively secure areas for townships and cities constructed in high mountainous regions with high magnitude earthquakes. This paper presents the basic thoughts, evaluation indices and evaluation methods of geological security evaluation, water and land resources security demonstration and integrated assessments of geo-environmental suitability for reconstruction in alp and ravine with high magnitude earthquakes, which are applied in the worst-hit areas (12 counties). The integrated assessment shows that: (1) located in the Longmenshan fault zone, the evaluated area is of poor regional crust stability, in which the unstable and second unstable areas account for 79% of the total; (2) the geo-hazards susceptibility is high in the evaluation area. The spots of geo-hazards triggered by earthquake are mainly distributed along the active fault zone with higher distribution in the moderate and high mountains area, in which the areas of high and moderate susceptibility zoning accounts for 40.1% of the total; (3) geological security is poor in the evaluated area, in which the area of the unsuitable construction occupies 73.1%, whereas in the suitable construction area, the areas of geological security, second security and insecurity zoning account for 8.3%, 9.3% and 9.3% of the evaluated area respectively; (4) geo-environmental suitability is poor in the evaluated area , in which the areas of suitability and basic suitability zoning account for 3.5% and 7.3% of the whole evaluation area.     

以科学发展观统领测绘工作初探

为贯彻落实科学发展观对测绘工作的要求,应以科学发展观统领国土资源测绘工作全局,充分利用测绘成果以及现代测绘技术,为推进科学发展提供保障服务。     

国内外洞穴旅游安全研究综述

安全是洞穴旅游的生命线,是洞穴旅游活动正常开展的前提和保障。利用CNKI、维普数据、Springer Link、Elsevier SDOL、EBSCO、SAGE JOURNALS、Wiley等中外文数据库并结合纸质文献,共获得与洞穴旅游安全相关的文献79篇。通过文献梳理发现:洞穴旅游安全是一个研究时间短暂的新兴学术领域,至今仅有25年的研究历史;研究成果较为分散,主题不突出,现有研究成果多属于洞穴或洞穴旅游研究中的“捎带”成果,至今尚无以洞穴旅游安全为主题的独立研究成果;现有研究成果主要涉及洞穴旅游安全的表现、影响因素以及对策等领域,研究内容限于浅表层次;研究尺度以微观为主。洞穴旅游安全作为洞穴旅游的新分支,是一个新的研究领域,在未来应综合运用洞穴学、安全学、旅游学等的相关理论与方法,从确保洞穴旅游环境、旅游者、旅游从业者等安全的角度出发,扩展洞穴旅游安全研究的内容;近期可着重对其理论架构、安全认知、安全风险评估以及安全救援体系等展开研究。      

The global environmental paw print of pet food

Global pet ownership, especially of cats and dogs, is rising with income growth, and so too are the environmental impacts associated with their food. The global extent of these impacts has not been quantified, and existing national assessments are potentially biased due to the way in which they account for the relative impacts of constituent animal by-products (ABPs). ABPs typically have lower value than other animal products (i.e. meat, milk and eggs), but are nevertheless associated with non-negligible environmental impacts. Here we present the first global environmental impact assessment of pet food. The approach is novel in applying an economic value allocation approach to the impact of ABPs and other animal products to represent better the environmental burden. We find annual global dry pet food production is associated with 56–151 Mt CO₂ equivalent emissions (1.1%−2.9% of global agricultural emissions), 41–58 Mha agricultural land-use (0.8–1.2% of global agricultural land use) and 5–11 km³ freshwater use (0.2–0.4% of water extraction of agriculture). These impacts are equivalent to an environmental footprint of around twicethe UK land area, and would make greenhouse gas emission from pet food around the 60th highest emitting country, or equivalent to total emissions from countries such as Mozambique or the Philippines. These results indicate that rising pet food demand should be included in the broader global debate about food system sustainability.     

虚拟水贸易在我国粮食安全问题中的应用

借助虚拟水的概念,分析以粮食为载体的虚拟水国际、区际流量关系,以勾勒我国虚拟水贸易的基本格局。通过对未来我国在不同粮食发展战略下的粮食供需情况,确定我国粮食进口基本规模,对未来我国虚拟水贸易格局进行展望。分析结果表明,1999年我国北方通过粮食贸易向南方地区输出的虚拟水量达到184亿m3。我国北方地区以有限的水资源在支持其他区域发展、确保国家粮食安全方面发挥了不可替代的作用。未来30年中国将面临新增粮食需求1.4亿~2.0亿t的巨大压力,在保持较高自给水平的前提下,我国虚拟水贸易的格局不会发生重大变化。外流域调水工程是保障国家粮食安全,维护社会稳定,促进可持续发展和造福中国人民的重大举措。虚拟水战略可作为跨流域调水的补充,在保障缺水地区水安全方面发挥重要作用。     

A review of snow manipulation experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems

Snow cover is one of the most important factors controlling microclimate and plant growing conditions for Arctic and alpine ecosystems. Climate change is altering snowfall regimes, which in turn influences snow cover and ultimately tundra plant communities. The interest in winter climate change and the number of experiments exploring the responses of alpine and Arctic ecosystems to changes in snow cover have been growing in recent years, but their outcomes are difficult to summarize because of the large variability in manipulation approaches, extents and measured response variables. In this review, we (1) compile the ecological publications on snow manipulation experiments, (2) classify the studies according to the climate scenarios they simulate and response variables they measure, (3) discuss the methods applied to manipulate snow cover, and (4) analyse and generalize the response in phenology, productivity and community composition by means of a meta-analysis. This meta-analysis shows that flowering phenology responded strongly to changes in the timing of snowmelt. The least responsive group of species were graminoids; however, they did show a decrease in productivity and abundance with experimentally increased snow covers. The species group with the greatest phenological response to snowmelt changes were the dwarf shrubs. Their abundance also increased in most long-term snow fence experiments, whereas species richness generally declined. We conclude that snow manipulation experiments can improve our understanding of recently observed ecosystem changes, and are an important component of climate change research.     

天津城市沿革中的供水格局演变分析

分析天津地区城市发展过程中的供水格局演变表明: 由于地下水盐碱度较高,在古代和近代,海河流域的地表水是城市的主要供水来源,供水保障区域即为城市附近的海河上游地区。1949 年以来,经过不同阶段的水利工程建设,天津已经形成了与城市空间布局相适应的供水系统。供水结构特征表现为以地表水为主,地下水为辅,对新型水源利用较少,高度依赖外来水源,如“引滦入津”等。过去60 年来,天津城市供水水源和供水保障区域的演变大致经历了三个阶段：(1) 20 世纪50 年代至60 年代中期的基本自给期,供水保障区域基本控制在天津市域范围内;(2) 60 年代中期至80 年代初期,将海河流域上游作为主要的供水保障区域、黄河水为应急水源的供水格局不稳定期。(3) 80 年代初期至今,以滦河流域为主要供水保障区域、黄河水为应急水源的供水格局基本稳定期。预计未来天津对外来水源的利用量将进一步增加,地表水所占比重将继续上升,地下水的利用量将减少。地表水的供水保障区域将在现有以滦河流域为主的基础上,进一步扩展至长江流域,地下水的供水保障区域将进一步缩小。     

中国能源供给安全综合评价及障碍因素分析

作为能源生产和消费大国,中国的能源供给安全问题一直备受关注,甚至有一些别有用心的国际机构大肆宣扬“中国能源威胁论”。针对中国能源供给存在的实际突出问题,开展能源供给安全综合评价研究,有助于深刻认识中国能源供给安全形势,找出中国能源供给安全的主要影响因子和强化政策保障。从能源供给安全的概念出发,构建中国能源供给安全综合评价指标体系,基于集对分析方法构建能源供给安全评估模型,借鉴指标评价标准模型建立指标评价标准值,运用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,对近年来中国能源供给安全的等级、演变特征及主要影响因素进行了深入分析。研究结果表明：2000-2008 年中国能源供给安全评价等级为III,2009 年和2011 年上升为I 级,2010 年为II 级。中国能源供给安全指数与最优评价集I 的联系度由2000 年的-0.46 增至2011 年的0.23,呈波动上升趋势。中国能源供给安全影响因素分析显示,能源产品价格指数和能源加工转换效率是第一位的影响因素,在各年份的出现频率达到91.67%,其次为可再生能源所占比重和储采比,出现频率达到83.33%。     

中国粮食生产时空格局动态及其优化策略探析

新中国成立以来,中国粮食生产总体上呈现波动上升的趋势,在区域上粮食生产重心出现"北进中移"的态势,粮食产销格局已由"南粮北调"转变为"北粮南调".利用相关统计资料,简要分析了中国粮食生产变化趋势.从生产和消费角度,基于区域粮食产量差异和比较优势指数模型,对1990-2005年各地区粮食生产的区域变化进行了定量分析,其结果验证了我国粮食生产格局变动的总体特征.在全国人均粮食产量略有增加的背景下,部分省区人均粮食占有量有不同程度的降低,尤其是沿海经济发达省区的粮食生产呈现快速下降态势.为了保障国家粮食安全,应当在发掘各地区粮食生产潜力的同时,充分发挥粮食作物的区域比较优势,保障和稳定基地化的农业生产,着力提高粮食综合生产能力.