Child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of changes in climate and socio-economic factors

We compare changes in low birth weight and child malnutrition in 13 African countries under projected climate change versus socio-economic development scenarios. Climate scenarios are created by linking surface temperature gradients with declines in seasonal rainfall sea along with warming values of 1 °C and 2 °C. Socio-economic scenarios are developed by assigning regionally specific changes in access to household electricity and mother's education. Using these scenarios, in combination with established models of children's health, we investigate and compare the changes in predicted health outcomes. We find that the negative effects of warming and drying on child stunting could be mitigated by positive development trends associated with increasing mothers’ educational status and household access to electricity. We find less potential for these trends to mitigate how warming and drying trends impact birth weights. In short, under warming and drying, the risk of more malnourished children is greater than the risk of more children with low birth weights, but increases in child malnutrition could be averted in regions that increase access to educational resources and basic infrastructure.     

Shocks to fish production: Identification,trends, and consequences

Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system.     

自然灾害对公共安全的影响及其监测预警科技发展战略

改革开放以来,我国在自然灾害监测预警的各个环节均取得了可喜的发展,对减轻灾害损失、保障人民生命财产安全和社会稳定繁荣发展发挥了重要作用。但仍需清醒地认识到,在灾害规律演变、社会经济发展的新形势下,各类自然灾害对国家公共安全仍存在很大的威胁;我国目前灾害监测预警能力与国家防灾减灾“三个转变”需求以及国际先进水平相比仍存在较大差距。因此,本文简要论述了气象、海洋、地质、地震、生物五大自然灾害对国家公共安全的影响,并根据我国目前监测预警状况和存在问题,提出未来5～10 a我国自然灾害监测预警科技发展战略要从加强预测预报基础理论研究、提升综合监测能力、构建高效自然灾害预警系统以及发展减灾避灾和救灾技术四个方面着手推进。     

基于OWA的大理市土地生态安全评价研究

从自然生态环境角度出发,从自然因子、生态环境因子、景观因子3个层面选取16项评价指标建立大理市土地生态安全评价体系,并运用IDRISI软件中的MCE模块进行有序加权平均算子（OWA）多准则决策评价,得到不同决策风险系数下的大理市土地生态安全评价结果。结果显示,由于决策者风险态度不同,得到土地生态安全评价结果差异较大,在实际应用中,必须结合研究区的实际情况以及规划的目的选择不同的风险系数进行评价,才能得到更加真实有效的结果。     

基于游客认同的文化遗产景区安全标识系统研究——以青城山-都江堰景区为例

文化遗产景区安全标识系统作为传播信息和规范观赏行为的有效方式,已成为影响游客旅游体验和衡量景区服务水准的重要因素。借助实地考察与随机抽样问卷调查,以青城山-都江堰世界文化遗产景区为例,综合利用文献分析和数理统计验证,拟定11项安全标识测量指标以调查游客对景区安全标识系统的认同感,研究结果表明:游客普遍认同遗产景区安全标识系统的重要性,但多是从利己角度的直观考虑;游客对青城山-都江堰文化遗产景区安全标识系统认同度低,安全标识系统各构成要素急需改进,尤其是安全标识的设计和功能;游客对文化遗产景区安全标识系统的认同度并不完全受人口统计特征影响;游客对文化遗产景区安全标识系统的认同度受游客出游频率和旅游形式影响。建议文化遗产景区从完善安全标识布局和基本功能、强调景观感设计、规范安全标识系统文字和色彩、改进标识的视觉尺寸和开展定期检查维护方面实施优化。     

河北省主要农作物生产时空格局变化特征及安全评价

阐述主要粮食作物的时空格局变化特征,对中国粮食安全决策意义重大。基于河北省县市近15 a (2001~2015年）的农业数据资料,采用分段线性趋势以及生产指标-产量波动系数来分析河北省主要粮食作物的时空变化特征,并对河北省粮食作物进行安全评价。结果表明：从产量与播种面积来看,近15 a河北省主要粮食作物变化趋势经历了由波动减少到稳步增长2个阶段,且变化趋势显著;从空间格局变化来看,大致呈由南向北逐渐递减的规律分布,其中不同农作物分布规律各有差异;从粮食安全方面来看,河北省70%以上年份粮食波动系数均超过中国粮食安全平均水平,粮食波动系数较高,粮食安全风险较大;但从人均粮食产量来看,安全程度相对比较乐观,粮食安全状况渐趋于平稳。研究可为河北省粮食生产时空布局的优化、结构调整与社会经济协调发展提供依据。     

生态保护红线成效评估框架与指标方法

生态保护红线是在自然保护区、重点生态功能区、风景名胜区、森林公园等诸多区域生态管理制度不断实践基础上,面对中国国土开发和生态保护的复杂关系,继承和创新提出的一种新型区域生态管控制度,已经成为推动国家生态文明建设的重大战略。如何科学评估生态保护红线保护成效,服务于生态保护红线综合管理和保障区域生态安全,成为普遍关注的热点问题之一。针对已有的区域生态保护成效评估案例的不足,基于划定生态保护红线是为保障国家和区域生态安全的基本认知,围绕着生态保护红线“生态功能不降低、面积不减少、性质不改变”的管控目标,以生态保护红线对区域生态系统保护作用为主要出发点,提出生态保护成效评估框架和指标方法。生态保护成效评估以生态系统类型构成和生态系统服务功能为内容主线,通过多维度时空尺度拓展,耦合分析生态保护红线内外、实施前后的生态状况变化,综合评估生态保护红线对保障区域生态安全的贡献和改善区域生态状况的作用。进而,可以关联分析可能引起生态保护红线生态状况变化的管控政策、制度和其他间接驱动因素,评估政策实施成效评估。实证上选择海南省生态保护红线和广东省严格控制区为案例进行了讨论。     

Understanding Agriculture Production and Food Security in Ethiopia from the Perspective of China

Food security and sustainable agricultural development are the hot issues of scientific research, especially after the population affected by hunger surprisingly increased in 2016. Long-lasting and recurrent famines caused by natural disasters and wars have afflicted Ethiopia. Unlike Ethiopia, which is still struggling to achieve food self-sufficiency, China managed to quickly become food self-sufficient at a rapid speed, despite the fact that it also faced the same challenges of famine over the last century. In the backdrop of differing environmental and socio-political challenges the two countries face, comparing the similarities and differences between the two countries will yield important lessons and insights for Ethiopia to follow to achieve food self-sufficiency. Here, the progress towards food security in Ethiopia and China is presented to quantitatively compare the gap of agricultural production between both countries. We found that food production in Ethiopia is heavily constrained by drought, soil degradation, climate change, out-dated agricultural production technologies, and poverty. According to these challenges, we examined corresponding responses in China to propose solutions for achieving food self-sufficiency in Ethiopia, given the realities of its unique national situation.     

Climate-smart agriculture: perspectives and framings

This paper offers a systematic analysis of the concepts and contexts that frame the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) discourse in the academic and policy literature. Documents (n?=?113) related to CSA and published in peer-reviewed journals, books, working papers, and scientific reports from 2004 to 2016 were reviewed. Three key trends emerged from the analysis: studies are biased towards global policy agendas; research focuses on scientific and technical issues; and the integration of mitigation, adaptation, and food security (the three pillars of CSA) is becoming a popular scholarly solution. Findings suggest that CSA is a fairly new concept used to describe a range of adaptation and mitigation practices without a specific set of criteria. Although CSA is often framed around the three pillars, the underlying issues constructing the discourse differ at global, developing, and developed country scales. Although there is increasing research on developing countries, particularly in relation to how CSA can transform smallholder agriculture, there is a paucity of research documenting the experiences from developed countries. The findings suggest that research on CSA needs to move beyond solely focussing on scientific approaches and only in certain geographical contexts. If CSA is to be applicable for farmers across the globe, then cross-disciplinary research that is underpinned by broad socio-economic and political contexts is essential to understand how differences in narratives might affect implementation on-the-ground in both developing and developed countries.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Although policy makers are increasingly supportive of the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach, the rhetoric has largely been developed on the basis of scientific and technical arguments. The political implications of varying perspectives have resulted in a growing divide between how developing and developed countries frame solutions to the impacts of climate change on agriculture under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Different framings are part of the explanation for why the scope of CSA is being rethought, with the scientific community redirecting attention to seeking a separate work programme under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The current policy framing of CSA will give no new policy direction unless it grounds itself in the smallholder farmer and civil society contexts.     

区域生态承载力预警评估方法及案例研究

本文针对国家资源环境承载能力监测预警评估中生态承载力评估的需求,探讨了生态承载力及预警的定义与内涵,从预警角度提出区域生态承载力评价的内容与方法,并以京津冀地区为例开展了案例研究。主要结论为：生态承载力是指生态系统提供服务功能、预防生态问题、保障区域生态安全的能力。生态承载力预警评估的实质是评估人类活动是否及在多大程度上影响生态系统在水源涵养、水土保持、防风固沙等主要服务功能的提供,是否产生了生态环境问题,是否影响到区域的生态安全。其评价流程主要包括：区域生态承载力评价指标选取及评价方法和阈值的确定、生态承载力预警状况及变化趋势分析、成因解析等内容。本文提出的生态承载力预警评价的方法及案例,可为全国及区域生态承载力的评估提供基础。