对马海峡环流季节变化的模拟及分析

在利用改进的POM模式的基础上,嵌套西北太平洋区域模式HAMSOM结果,建立1个日本海对马海峡海域斜压准预报模式.通过与已有的观测和研究进行对比,得到较为可信的模拟结果.以温度场和盐度场为参考,系统分析讨论该海域的环流结构及其季节变化.对于温度锋和盐度锋的位置,以及对马暖流的流核等存在争议的问题给出了相应的解释.对马海峡作为日本海的上层水体主要输入区域,对马暖流携带的高温高盐水经过该区域时,在温盐等方面呈现出自南向北的递减变化趋势.对马暖流被对马岛分为东西两支,流核深度随季节变化,并且明显存在双核结构.     

卡里马塔海峡水体交换的季节变化

Four trawl-resistant bottom mounts, with acoustic Doppler current profilers(ADCPs) embedded, were deployed in the Karimata Strait from November 2008 to June 2015 as part of the South China Sea-Indonesian Seas Transport/Exchange and Impact on Seasonal Fish Migration(SITE) Program, to estimate the volume and property transport between the South China Sea and Indonesian seas via the strait. The observed current data reveal that the volume transport through the Karimata Strait exhibits significant seasonal variation. The winteraveraged(from December to February) transport is –1.99 Sv(1 Sv=1×10~6 m~3/s), while in the boreal summer(from June to August), the average transport is 0.69 Sv. Moreover, the average transport from January 2009 to December2014 is –0.74 Sv(the positive/negative value indicates northward/southward transport). May and September are the transition period. In May, the currents in the Karimata Strait turn northward, consistent with the local monsoon. In September, the southeasterly trade wind is still present over the strait, driving surface water northward, whereas the bottom flow reverses direction, possibly because of the pressure gradient across the strait from north to south.     

FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.     

梅雨降水季节预测的多方法比较

基于1961—2000年逐月降水观测资料和全球大气再分析资料,分析了6—7月长江中下游(108°～123°E,27°～33°N)梅雨的时空分布特征。通过观测诊断和数值试验确定了影响梅雨异常偏多的3个前期因子:4—5月平均的西北太平洋海平面气压正异常;3月至5月北大西洋海平面气压负变压倾向;1月至4月西伯利亚的2 m温度负倾向。利用这3个具有物理意义的影响因子构建了梅雨季节预测模型,该模型在训练期(1961—2000年)和独立预测期(2001—2022年)均具有显著的预测技巧(相关系数分别为0.79和0.77,均方根误差分别为0.59和0.68)。同时,基于相似的潜在预测因子,对比了利用偏最小二乘回归方法和5种机器学习方法(随机森林、轻量级梯度提升机、自适应提升、类别型特征提升、极端梯度提升)建立的预测模型的技巧。虽然训练期(1961—2000年)偏最小二乘回归和机器学习建模拟合效果更高,但在独立预测期(2001—2022年)上述模型的预测技巧显著降低(相关系数均低于0.44,均方根误差均大于0.93),出现了明显的过拟合问题。本研究强调梅雨的短期气候预测应建立在物理机制基础之上,而使用机器学习方法需谨慎。     

南沙群岛海域混合层深度季节变化特征

基于南沙群岛海域综合科学考察11个航次的实测资料,研究了南沙群岛海域的混合层深度季节变化特征。研究结果表明,南沙群岛海域混合层深度存在明显的季节变化,并且与季风和海表热通量的变化密切相关。春季,风速较小且风向不稳定,海面得到的净热通量全年最大,上层水体层结稳定,混合层深度较小;夏季,南海西南季风盛行,上层为反气旋式环流,海面得到的净热通量减少,混合层呈加深的趋势;秋季,海面净热通量继续减少,混合层深度达到最大值;冬季,东北季风驱动下形成的上层气旋式环流引起深层冷水的上升,限制了混合层的加深。     

DAYTIME HEAT BALANCE FOR ESTIMATING NON-RADIATIVE FLUXES OF LAKE BANYOLES,SPAIN

Combining a six-term heat balance equation and a seasonal thermocline model, a new equation to calculate non- radiative fluxes of Lake Banyoles has been determined. Mean daily measurements of global solar radiation, downward longwave radiation, wind speed, air temperature and water surface temperature were used as input data and lake temperature as the calculated output data of the model. To calibrate performance of the new equation, calculated lake temperature was compared with measured lake temperature during both the mixing and the stratified period of the lake. The new coefficients in the wind function to calculate the non-radiative fluxes at the water surface were assumed to depend on the variability of the wind speed, the air temperature of the study area and the surface temperature of the lake. In addition, the results were used to estimate the heat balance of the air–water interface of Lake Banyoles over a period of two years. The processes that have been taken into account are shortwave and longwave radiation, back-radiation emitted by the lake, sensible and latent heat and throughflow.     

吕宋和台湾岛以东黑潮季节与年际变化规律的对比分析

黑潮是北太平洋副热带环流系统的一支重要的西边界流。前人对不同流段黑潮的季节和年际变化进行了诸多研究,然而基于不同数据所得结论仍存在差异,尤其是不同模式计算所得流量差别很大,而且以往研究往往着眼于某一流段,对不同流段黑潮变化之间的异同及其原因涉及较少。本文基于卫星高度计数据,评估了OFES(Ocean generalcir culation model For the Earth Simulator)和HYCOM(Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model)两个模式对吕宋岛和台湾岛以东黑潮季节与年际变化的模拟能力,进而对两个海域黑潮变化的异同及其物理机制进行了分析。结果表明:HYCOM模式对黑潮季节变化的模拟较好,而OFES模式对黑潮年际变化的模拟较好。吕宋岛以东黑潮和台湾岛以东黑潮在季节与年际尺度上的变化规律均不相同,且受不同动力过程控制。吕宋岛以东黑潮呈现冬春季强而秋季弱的变化规律,主要受北赤道流分叉南北移动的影响;而台湾岛以东黑潮呈现夏季强冬季弱的变化特点,主要受该海区反气旋涡与气旋涡相对数目的季节变化影响。在年际尺度上,吕宋岛以东黑潮与北赤道流分叉及风应力旋度呈负相关,当风应力旋度超前于流量4个月时相关系数达到了-0.56;而台湾岛以东黑潮的流量变化则受制于副热带逆流区涡动能的变化,且滞后于涡动能9个月时达到最大正相关,相关系数为0.44。本研究对于深入理解不同流段黑潮的多尺度变异规律及其对邻近海区环流与气候的影响具有重要意义,同时对于黑潮研究的数值模式选取具有重要参考价值。     

孟加拉湾及其毗邻海域中尺度涡旋活动的冬、夏季差异

基于1993—2017年从卫星高度计资料中识别出来的中尺度涡轨迹数据集,对冬、夏季孟加拉湾涡旋的源地和性质进行了研究。研究表明孟加拉湾西部、安达曼海和孟加拉湾通往赤道的出口处的中尺度涡旋活动呈现显著的季节性差异。安达曼海在冬、夏季从北往南中尺度涡旋分别以“反气旋涡-气旋涡-反气旋涡”和“气旋涡-反气旋涡-气旋涡”的格局分布。不同源区涡旋的季节性生长过程有明显差异。孟加拉湾西部的涡旋在夏季生长迅速但消散缓慢,斯里兰卡冷涡生长缓慢但消散迅速。不同源区涡旋半径和振幅大小有不同的特征。孟加拉湾西部,无论冬、夏季,反气旋涡的振幅、半径都比气旋涡大;夏季季风漂流区,气旋涡半径比反气旋涡小但是振幅比反气旋涡大;安达曼海内无论冬、夏季都是最北侧聚集区涡旋的半径和振幅最大。孟加拉湾内生命史为30~40 d的涡旋数量最多,生命史在100 d以上的涡旋主要分布在孟加拉湾西部。     

南海与周边海域表层塑料颗粒交换的拉格朗日示踪研究

塑料污染已成为国际海洋界关注的海洋环境问题之一。文章探讨海洋环流对南海及其周边海域表层塑料颗粒交换的影响。在南海周边多个海域, 分别在4个季节投放塑料颗粒。一年后, 用拉格朗日颗粒示踪方法考察投放颗粒的运动轨迹和最终停留位置。结果表明, 在秋、冬季, 大部分塑料颗粒会进入南海和爪哇海, 极少部分颗粒北输送到太平洋; 在春、夏季, 仅有部分颗粒进入南海和爪哇海, 而多数颗粒流到太平洋。南海洋流具有季节特征, 塑料颗粒轨迹特征与之较为符合。     

南海海面高度季节变化的数值模拟

比较POM模式模拟与观测(TOPEX/Poseidon高度计资料)的南海海面高度(SSH)的季节变化在空间分布上的一致性和差异.结果表明:本文使用的POM模式能较好地模拟南海SSH的季节变化;冬季与夏季,春季与秋季南海海面异常场形式完全相反,冬季Ekman输运造成在西海岸的堆积要比夏季在东海岸堆积更明显,而吕宋冷涡中心附近和吕宋海峡海面季节变化振幅最大;除春季以外,在南海绝大部分海域,海面高度的季节变化主要受风力的控制,南海海面热量通量对SSH的季节变化贡献约为20%,风应力对SSH的季节变化的贡献约为80%.