青藏高原加热与亚洲环流季节变化和夏季风爆发

利用逐日NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分析了春夏过渡季节青减高原非绝热加热和大气环流季节变化以及亚洲季风爆发的关系.结果表明,过渡季节的早期(5月中旬以前)青藏高原总非绝热加热与感热加热的时间演变曲线趋势一致,感热加热在过渡季节早期的环流演变中有很重要的作用.青藏高原非绝热加热的时间演变与北半球环流的季节变化和亚洲夏季风爆发有很好的相关.在过渡季节里,青藏高原非绝热加热的变化引起了海-陆热力差异对比的变化,给亚洲夏季风的爆发建立了有利的背景环境,对亚洲夏季风爆发有明显的影响.结果还表明,用各区域纬向风垂直差异的时空分布能更准确地表示季节变化的区域差异.     

近百年全球平均地面气温准周期信号及其长期演变特征的分析

应用奇异谱分析(SSA)方法,对全球及南北半球近100多年(1856～1997年)逐月地面气温距平序列的年际变化准周期性进行诊断分析,结果表明,全球平均气温序列中以准5～6年和准4年周期振荡最显著,其次是准两年周期振荡.各种准周期振荡年代际演变特征及其变率的阶段性,不但表现在振幅上,而且其波数亦很明显.上述特征在全球、南北半球都各有明显的差异.奇异交叉谱分析(SCSA)表明,全球平均地面气温的年际振荡与气候系统中其他各子系统所隐含的准周期信号具有各种耦合关系,尤其表现在与Nino区海温或南方涛动指数中的准周期信号的耦合关系上.     

REMOTE SENSING OF THE SEASONAL VARIATION IN COLUMN ABUNDANCE OF ATMOSPHERIC CH4*

Infrared solar spectra on clear days were measured automatically by an infrared solar spectrometer(ISS) with 0.4 cm^-1 resolution developed by us.A line-by line(LBL) computation method was used to calculate theoretical atmospheric absorption.In the wavelength range of 3.410-3.438 μm.the absorption is mainly due to atmospheric methane and water vapor.Columnatmospheric methane was retrieved from the recorded infrared solar spectra.The seasonal variation of column atmospheric methane in Hefei has been obtained from the measuremental data of nearly 18 months since the April of 1997.and found that it is similar to that of background data.The instruments.principles of measurement and some of results were introduced,and the results are also discussed briefly in the paper.     

中国西北地区季节性积雪的性质与结构

中国内陆地区积雪分布十分广泛。根据西北地区大陆性气候条件下形成的“干寒型”积雪的特征 ,对中国天山和阿尔泰山山区的季节性积雪进行了观测与分析。结果表明 ,该区最大积雪深度达 15 2cm(1997) ,积雪层一般由新雪 (或表层凝结霜 )、细粒雪、中粒雪、粗粒雪、松散深霜、聚合深霜层和薄融冻冰层组成。与“湿暖型”积雪相比 ,“干寒型”积雪的性质具有密度小 (新雪的最小密度为 0 .0 4 g/cm3 )、含水率少 (隆冬期 <1% )、温度梯度大(最大可达 - 0 .5 2℃ /cm)、深霜发育层厚等特点 ,并且变质作用以热量交换和雪层压力变质作用为主。据中国科学院天山积雪与雪崩研究站 (43°2 0N ,84°2 9E ,海拔 1776m)的观测资料 ,中国内陆干旱区冬季积雪期雪面太阳辐射通量以负平衡为主 ,新雪雪面反射率达 96 % ,短波辐射在干寒型积雪中的穿透厚度达 2 8cm。春季积雪消融期 ,深霜层厚度可占整个积雪层厚度的 80 %。随着气温的升高 ,雪粒间的键链首先融化 ,使积雪变得松散 ,内聚力、抗压、抗拉和抗剪强度降低 ,积雪含水率也随之增大 ,整个积雪层趋于接近 0℃的等温现象 ,因此 ,春季天山、阿尔泰山等山地全层性湿雪崩频繁发生     

Long-term climato-limnological cycles found in a 3.5-million-year continental record

Analysis of physical properties in long sediment cores (BDP96) from Academician Ridge in Lake Baikal indicates that major climato-limnological changes during the past 3.5 Myr occurred at about 2.5–2.8, 1.7–1.9, and 0.9–1.2 Ma, which were close to times of major geomagnetic polarity reversals (Matuyama/Gauss, Olduvai, Jaramillo + Matuyama/Brunhes). The principal climato-limnological oscillation has a long-term period of nearly 1,000 kyr, which corresponds to the periodicity of fluctuation in solar insolation. It also seems to be related to geomagnetic field intensity. Other long-term period of 400 kyr corresponds to Milankovitch parameters of eccentricity. These results suggest that changes in solar insolation were closely related to long-term environmental variations in the deep continental interior.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Atmospheric concentrations of nonmethane hydrocarbons at a North European coastal site

Two years of individual nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) measurements at a rural site close to the south coast of Norway show that there was a distinct annual cycle with a late winter maximum and late summer minimum in the slowly reacting NMHCs acetylene, ethane, propane and i- and n-butane. The average January—March concentrations were a factor 2–4 higher than the July-September concentrations. Also ethene, propene and the pentanes show a similar annual cycle, but the individual scatter in the measurements in particular of propene, is large. The highest concentrations of NMHC were found in winter for easterly transport on a regional scale (out to 1500 km from the site), and for southeasterly transport in the summer.     

中国及邻近地区冬到夏的季节变化

南亚地区在冬到夏的转变过程中有显著的热力学与环境变化特征，是北半球季节变化的敏感区，对我国长期变化有十分重要的意义。根据这一特点，设计计算了南支西风指数，并将副高面积指数分南北区统计，更地地反映了季节变化特征。统计结果表明，这个指数组对梅雨与华北雨季有天气气候学意义。同时还找到了这个指数组对我国一些地区旱涝的前期指标。     

基于NWC甚低频信号的日出效应的观测与分析

频率在3~30 kHz的甚低频（VLF,Very Low Frequency）波具有较小的传播损耗和较高的趋肤深度,可以在地球-低电离层波导中实现长距离传输,广泛应用于航海导航、对潜通信等领域,且在电离层遥测方面具有十分重要的意义.基于武汉大学自主研发的VLF接收机在武汉接收的NWC（North West Cape）台站信号,本文通过分析2018年4月23日—2020年7月22日的观测数据研究了日出期间NWC信号的幅度响应及其特点和规律.结果表明NWC信号日出期间的幅度响应主要包括两种极小值结构：2个幅度极小值（SR1、SR2）的Type I结构和3个幅度极小值（SR1、SR2、SR3）的Type II结构.在以SR1出现时间为时间零点进行时序叠加分析后发现,Type I结构比Type II具有更强的规律性和稳定性.在Type I结构下,SR2出现时间的波动范围、平均值、标准差分别为43~65 min、54.2 min、4.4 min,而在Type II结构下,SR2和SR3出现时间的波动范围分别为48~93 min、80~120 min,平均值分别为64.7 min、96.4 min,标准差分别为10.2 min、11.7 min.在27个月的观测期内,3—7月份Type I结构的出现概率100%,未出现Type II结构,而在1—2月和8—12月Type I结构出现的概率明显下降,最低降至1月份的20.7%,而Type II在1月、2月、11月的出现概率均高于70%.按春秋分交替变化（周期1和周期2）的统计结果,在周期1内Type I和Type II结构出现的概率分别为91.5%、8.5%,而在周期2内Type I结构出现的概率降至41.9%,Type II结构出现概率则升至58.1%,这表示观测期间内Type II结构主要出现在秋冬季,春夏季发生概率较低.