破裂时间法在云南小江断裂带强震预测中的应用

使用云南区域台网记录的地震目录资料,采用破裂时间法模拟前兆地震序列能量加速释放过程,系统研究了能量加速释放模型参数估计方法及强震位置搜索技术,详细推导了预测模型基本公式,对小江断裂带上发生的19次主震事件进行了模拟,结果表明:强震前能量加速现象是一种普遍现象,主震前,与主震相差2.5个震级单位的前兆序列出现能量加速释放所占的比例为80%;由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值很接近,主震震级预测精度约为±0.5级,预测主震发生时间误差约为±0.5年;搜索半径和搜索时间与主震震级成线性正相关关系;采用主震位置搜索技术,对小江断裂带未来中期6～7级强震可能危险区进行了预测。     

伊朗巴姆地震中的国际救援情况

介绍了伊朗巴姆地震后伊朗国内及国际应急响应、联合国灾害评估与协调队(UNDAC)及其现场协调中心在灾区进行的国际搜救协调行动,介绍了前往巴姆地震灾区救援的各国国际救援队的情况。最后给出了巴姆地震灾害所提示的在紧急救援及震害防御方面的问题。     

Normal faulting mechanisms in the Western Desert of Egypt

Egypt is recognized as a moderate seismicity region where earthquakes are distributed within several active regions. Owing to sparse distribution of both seismicity and seismic stations, mostly moderate-size Egyptian earthquakes were recorded by regional stations. One of such cases is the moderate-size earthquakes of moment magnitudes greater than 4.0 which struck the Western Desert of Egypt in 1998 and 1999. These events are the first instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring in the area. In the present study, the source mechanism for these earthquakes was estimated using the waveform data recorded from one of the very broadband MedNet seismograph stations and polarities from the national short-period seismographs. An iterative technique was applied to find the best-fit double-couple mechanism by a grid search over strike, dip and rake. Regional synthetic seismograms were calculated by using f–k integration in the frequency range of 0.03–0.1 Hz. A crustal structure fitted to surface wave dispersion curves was used to compute Green’s function. Focal depths were determined through the grid search method for a range of source depths. Our results show a normal faulting mechanism with minor strike-slip component. The NNW trend has been chosen as a preferred rupture plane in consistence with surface and subsurface faults and microearthquake seismicity in the epicenteral area as well.     

Teaching Structural Hazards Awareness for Preparedness and Community Response

Most successful search and rescue is performed by neighbors and household members during the first 24 h after an earthquake, before professional responders arrive on the scene. Many spontaneous responders become casualties in the process. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institutes Disaster Preparedness Education Project with the support of the Earthquake Engineering Department has developed a training module for Community Disaster Responders to help them assess the level of damage for immediate citizen disaster response. Learning the signs of damage in both reinforced concrete and adobe buildings, they will be better able to distinguish the slight and moderately damaged buildings where their light search and rescue efforts will be effective, as opposed to the heavily damaged buildings where professional help is required for safe extrication. Incorporating citizens into the early stages of building collapse rescue is designed to make professional urban search and rescue efforts more effective. The program is being piloted in Turkey by the Civil Defense Directorate, Search and Rescue Brigade. It is expected that this will lead to a new demand for engineers to work in partnership with community-based organizations for planning and prioritizing disaster mitigation efforts, and to participate in immediate post-disaster damage assessment. Engineering recommendations will also be needed for post-earthquake building re-entry and re-habitation risk assessment.     

利用搜索引擎数据模拟疾病空间分布

互联网记录了人们的日常生活,对带有位置信息的搜索引擎数据进行分析和挖掘可以获得隐藏于其中的地理信息。本文通过分析中国各省流感月度发病数与相关关键词百度搜索指数之间的相关性,选取相关性较高关键词的百度指数作为解释变量,发病数作为因变量,在采用主成分分析法消除变量共线性后,分别使用普通最小二乘回归（OLS）、地理加权回归（GWR）及时空地理加权回归（GTWR）构建流感发病数的空间分布模型。模型的拟合度能够从OLS的0.737、GWR的0.915提高到GTWR的0.959,赤池信息准则（AIC）也表明,GTWR模型明显优于OLS与GWR模型。验证结果显示,GTWR模型能准确识别流感高发地区,将该方法与搜索引擎数据结合能较好地模拟流感空间分布,为空间流行病学的研究提供预测模型和统计解释。     

Klobuchar电离层延迟改正模型精化方法的研究

在GPS导航定位中,单频接收机利用导航电文发播的Klobuchar电离层改正模型对电离层误差进行改正,但改正效果不太理想,为了提高其改正精度,并利用它进行电离层实时预报,我们通过电离层电子含量实测数据,对其进行精化,以满足要求。本文在原有Klobuchar电离层改正模型精化的基础之上,提出了一种新的精化方法,并对两种方法进行了比较研究,结果表明这两种精化方法对电离层的改正均有很好地提高,且本文提出的方法更优良。     

Learning in neural spatial interaction models: A statistical perspective

 In this paper we view learning as an unconstrained non-linear minimization problem in which the objective function is defined by the negative log-likelihood function and the search space by the parameter space of an origin constrained product unit neural spatial interaction model. We consider Alopex based global search, as opposed to local search based upon backpropagation of gradient descents, each in combination with the bootstrapping pairs approach to solve the maximum likelihood learning problem. Interregional telecommunication traffic flow data from Austria are used as test bed for comparing the performance of the two learning procedures. The study illustrates the superiority of Alopex based global search, measured in terms of Kullback and Leibler's information criterion. Received: December 2001 / Accepted: August 2002 The author gratefully thanks Martin Reismann (Department of Economic Geography & Geoinformatics) for his valuable research assistance.     

不依赖假设检验的整周模糊度确认

扼要分析了现行整周模糊度确认方法 ,进而提出并证明了一条缩小整周模糊度搜索空间的定理。根据此定理 ,提出了一种不依赖假设检验的整周模糊度确认方法。该方法不仅可以加快整周模糊度的搜索速度 ,而且在次小残差二次型和最小残差二次型之比较小的情况下也能固定整周模糊度 ,并给出一个固定正确性的数字指标     

Automated statistical matching of multiple tephra records exemplified using five long maar sequences younger than 75 ka,Auckland, New Zealand

Detailed tephrochronologies are built to underpin probabilistic volcanic hazard forecasting, and to understand the dynamics and history of diverse geomorphic, climatic, soil-forming and environmental processes. Complicating factors include highly variable tephra distribution over time; difficulty in correlating tephras from site to site based on physical and chemical properties; and uncertain age determinations. Multiple sites permit construction of more accurate composite tephra records, but correctly merging individual site records by recognizing common events and site-specific gaps is complex. We present an automated procedure for matching tephra sequences between multiple deposition sites using stochastic local optimization techniques. If individual tephra age determinations are not significantly different between sites, they are matched and a more precise age is assigned. Known stratigraphy and mineralogical or geochemical compositions are used to constrain tephra matches. We apply this method to match tephra records from five long sediment cores (≤ 75 cal ka BP) in Auckland, New Zealand. Sediments at these sites preserve basaltic tephras from local eruptions of the Auckland Volcanic Field as well as distal rhyolitic and andesitic tephras from Okataina, Taupo, Egmont, Tongariro, and Tuhua (Mayor Island) volcanic centers. The new correlated record compiled is statistically more likely than previously published arrangements from this area.     

化探在找油气中的作用

本文侧重以实例阐述化探在我国找油气中的作用,这些作用包括预测盆地的含油气远景、指出油气富集的有利区带、评价圈闭或区块的含油气性,圈定油气田有效范围和随钻油气层预测与评价。