中尺度降水集合预报随机参数扰动方法敏感性试验

中尺度降水模式预报具有很大的不确定性,为更好地描述与模式降水预报密切相关的物理过程关键参数的不确定性,基于中国气象局GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System）中尺度区域集合预报模式,从对模式降水预报不确定性有较大影响的积云对流、云微物理、边界层及近地面层等4个参数化方案中选取了18个关键参数,设计了一种随机参数扰动方案（Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization,SPP）,并通过2015年6—7月总计10 d的随机扰动集合预报试验,对比分析了SPP方案对不同物理过程参数扰动敏感性、随机场时、空尺度敏感性、能量变化特征及其集合预报效果。结果显示,对所选择的任一物理过程参数化方案增加SPP扰动后,降水及等压面要素的概率预报技巧优于无SPP扰动的预报,而扰动积云对流和边界层过程中的参数较扰动云微物理过程中的参数影响更显著,且同时扰动积云对流、云微物理、边界层及近地面层参数化方案中的18个参数的集合预报效果优于扰动任何单一物理过程中的部分参数,表明SPP方案能够有效地提高中尺度降水概率预报技巧;从能量变化特征可知,不同物理过程的参数扰动对动能、内能和总能量的影响层次和特征有所不同,但总体而言,扰动前后各项能量基本相同;随机场时、空尺度敏感性试验发现,SPP扰动随机场时间、空间相关尺度对集合预报效果有明显影响,当扰动随机场选用12 h抗相关时间及截断波数20时,集合预报结果最优。上述结果表明,SPP随机参数扰动方案不仅能够有效提高集合概率预报效果,还能够提高集合降水概率预报技巧,具有良好的业务应用与发展前景。      

Magmatic Differentiation at an Island-arc Caldera: Okmok Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska

Okmok volcano is situated on oceanic crust in the central Aleutianarc and experienced large (15 km³) caldera-forming eruptionsat 12 000 years BP and 2050 years BP. Each caldera-forming eruptionbegan with a small Plinian rhyodacite event followed by theemplacement of a dominantly andesitic ash-flow unit, whereaseffusive inter- and post-caldera lavas have been more basaltic.Phenocryst assemblages are composed of olivine + pyroxene +plagioclase ± Fe–Ti oxides and indicate crystallizationat 1000–1100°C at 0·1–0·2 GPain the presence of 0–4% H₂O. The erupted products followa tholeiitic evolutionary trend and calculated liquid compositionsrange from 52 to 68 wt % SiO₂ with 0·8–3·3wt % K₂O. Major and trace element models suggest that the moreevolved magmas were produced by 50–60% in situ fractionalcrystallization around the margins of the shallow magma chamber.Oxygen and strontium isotope data (¹⁸O 4·4–4·9,⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr 0·7032–0·7034) indicate interactionwith a hydrothermally altered crustal component, which led toelevated thorium isotope ratios in some caldera-forming magmas.This compromises the use of uranium–thorium disequilibria[(²³⁰Th/ ²³⁸U) = 0·849–0·964] to constrainthe time scales of magma differentiation but instead suggeststhat the age of the hydrothermal system is 100 ka. Modellingof the diffusion of strontium in plagioclase indicates thatmany evolved crystal rims formed less than 200 years prior toeruption. This addition of rim material probably reflects theremobilization of crystals from the chamber margins followingreplenishment. Basaltic recharge led to the expansion of themagma chamber, which was responsible for the most recent caldera-formingevent. KEY WORDS: Okmok; caldera; U-series isotopes; Sr-diffusion; time scales; Aleutian arc     

测度链上微分方程的进展

综述测度链上微分方程理论的基本概念及其最新进展，包括作者的研究集体所做的工作，也提出一些值得进一步研究的课题。     

大气中的波流相互作用研究进展

简要回顾了近年来关于波动同纬向平均流相互作用的研究进展,重点讨论了E-P通量和波作用守恒理论的研究进展,同时,还介绍了波流作用稳定性问题的理论研究动态.     

TOPOGRAPHIC DEPENDENT HORIZONTAL LOCALIZATION SCALE SCHEME IN GRAPES-MESO HYBRID EN-3DVAR ASSIMILATION SYSTEM

Based on the GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR (Ensemble three-dimension hybrid data assimilation for Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction system) constructed by China Meteorological Administration, a 7-day simulation (from 10 July 2015 to 16 July 2015) is conducted for horizontal localization scales. 48h forecasts have been designed for each test, and seven different horizontal localization scales of 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500 and 1750 km are set. The 7-day simulation results show that the optimal horizontal localization scales over the Tibetan Plateau and the plain area are 1500 km and 1000 km, respectively. As a result, based on the GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR, a topography-dependent horizontal localization scale scheme (hereinafter referred to as GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS) has been constructed. The data assimilation and forecast experiments have been implemented by GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR, 3DVAR and GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS, and then the analysis and forecast field of these three systems are compared. The results show that the analysis field and forecast field within 30h of GRAPES-MESO hybrid En-3DVAR-TD-HLS are better than those of the other two data assimilation systems. Particularly in the analysis field, the root mean square error (RMSE) of u_wind and v_wind in the entire vertical levels is significantly less than that of the other two systems. The time series of total RMSE indicate, in the 6-30h forecast range, that the forecast result of En-3DVAR-TD-HLS is better than that of the other two systems, but the En-3DVAR and 3DVAR are equivalent in terms of their forecast skills. The 36-48h forecasts of three data assimilation systems have similar forecast skill.     

Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Hebei Plain

Rainfall is an important climate factor, which has significant impacts on agricultural production and na-tional economic development[1]. Being part of the North China Plain, the Hebei Plain is an agricultural region. Under the continental monsoon climate, it is cold and dry in winter, hot and rainy in summer, and its variable rainfall is concentrated in summer. Droughts and floods occur frequently and impose sig-nificant impacts on agricultural production. Studies on the characteristics and …     

Inertial oscillations and frontogenesis driven by a quadratic horizontal density variation

We consider inviscid rotating flow driven by a horizontally quadratic density variation in a horizontally unbounded slab. This configuration permits a similarity solution, removing the dependence on the horizontal coordinate from the vorticity and temperature equations, which are then solved by numerical integration along characteristics. At large values of Rossby number, the flow proceeds to a singularity in a similar manner to the non-rotating flow with the same initial conditions. At small values of Rossby number there are inertial oscillations of growing amplitude, which have been analysed using the method of multiple scales. The oscillations become desynchronised between the upper and lower parts of the domain, and static instability appears for a small fraction of each oscillation period. Eventually the oscillations give way to the rapid formation of a singularity, in contrast to geostrophic adjustment theory which predicts that a singularity will form only if the Rossby number is sufficiently large.     

一种分离暴雨过程天气尺度和次天气尺度特征的方法

作者提出利用奇异谱主分量重建技术进行气象变量场尺度分离的新构想,并设计出尺度分离的具体实施方法.使用此方法对1998年7月下旬长江流域强暴雨过程的卫星观测亮温(TBB)场进行了试验性尺度分离.结果表明,该分离技术可以将这次暴雨过程天气尺度和次天气尺度系统的基本结构清晰地分离出来.在天气尺度场上,长江流域呈现出明显的切变线上连续性对流云系的特征.在次天气尺度场上,可以清楚地显现出偶极子系统的演变特征,其活动与暴雨过程有很好的对应.     

An uncertainty parameter of historical earthquakes – the record threshold

In this study we use the term record threshold of a historical earthquake for the seismic intensity (EMS92) in an area where a given percentage P of the serial sources of places have recorded the event as been noticed there. The record threshold is understood as a limiting measure, below which warranted statements about the intensity cannot be given. P defines the acceptable uncertainty and can be chosen according to the demands of the special task, for instance, 10%. It is shown that the record threshold of historical earthquakes is not the same as the human perceptibility threshold of earthquakes of the 20th Century. The historical sources have to be selected using criteria such as completeness and homogenity of data. This demand is approximately met by inquiries for sources covering an area greater than the expected felt area of the historical earthquake.The Friuli event of 25 January 1348 is presented as an example. It is compared with the well known Friuli event of 6 May 1976 in order to calibrate its intensity. The record threshold of the 1348 event was probably IV or less than IV EMS92 for P = 10%. The method, properly modified, can be applied to different cultural epochs and areas. This result throws a light on the possible error in determining the felt area of historical events.