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41.
42.
本文将造成直接经济损失的热带气旋定义为致灾气旋。依据城区常住人口,将我国城市划分为小城市、中等城市、大城市三种规模等级,基于1984—2019年热带气旋灾情和路径数据筛选出致灾气旋,分析我国城市的致灾气旋频次、强度,并研究致灾气旋造成的不同规模城市直接经济损失变化。主要结论为:(1)1984—2019年影响我国城市的致灾气旋为7.7个·a-1,呈微弱下降趋势,而强台风和超强台风的发生频次呈显著增加趋势(α=0.05显著水平),30°N以南城市频次整体比北部高;(2)由于致灾气旋影响范围增加,暴露于不同强度致灾气旋的城市个数呈增加趋势,其中暴露于强台风的城市个数增速最快,约为2.0个/(10 a);致灾气旋影响城市个数增加以及城市经济快速发展,使得暴露于致灾气旋影响范围内的经济总量迅速增加,以大城市经济暴露度(占比81.7%)的增速最快(402.6亿元·a-1);(3)1984—2019年致灾气旋造成的城市直接经济损失约为262.3亿元·a-1(以2019年市值),呈增加趋势;城市经济快速发展和高强度致灾气旋频次增加的共同作用下,城市经济损失占我国致灾气旋经济损失的比重从30.0%增加到63.3%。大城市资产财富集中,且多位于沿海地区,致灾气旋发生频次较多,经济损失占比最大(为51.4%),增速最快(为5.2亿元·a-1)。 相似文献
43.
受气候系统影响的水文系统具有多时间尺度变化规律。由于平滩流量与水沙条件变化关系密切,也必然会呈现出多时间尺度演变规律。基于黄河下游主要测站1950~2007年平滩流量及水沙资料,利用小波分析原理分析了平滩流量、流量和含沙量序列的多时间尺度变化特征,以及不同时间尺度下水沙序列与平滩流量序列之间的相关关系。结果表明,黄河下游主要测站的平滩流量序列存在5~6年和19~20年的主要时间尺度,且水沙条件多尺度变化规律与平滩流量有密切关系。此外,对黄河上游和渭河支流主要测站的平滩流量与水沙条件的多时间尺度进行了分析,发现不同河段的平滩流量序列与含沙量序列存在不同的相位差,且相位差大小随含沙量增大而减少。揭示的黄河平滩流量与水沙条件的多时间尺度变化规律,可为研究河床演变的多时间尺度现象提供参考。 相似文献
44.
The palaeoecological potential of fish scales was assessed by comparing contemporary population data with scale remains obtained from littoral (n = 10) and open water (n = 10) surface sediment samples in two English shallow lakes, Selbrigg Pond and Cockshoot Broad. Scales and/or scale fragments were present, in low numbers (<20 per 100 cm3 wet sediment) in 34 of 40 sediment samples. In accordance with fish population data, higher densities of scale remains were found in Selbrigg compared to Cockshoot, and in littoral compared to open water samples. Taxonomic difficulties, exacerbated by scale fragmentation, made it impossible to assign the majority of remains to individual species. Most remains could, however, be placed into one of two groups: (i) percids – represented by both scales and scale fragments; and (ii) cyprinids – largely represented by scale fragments. To allow comparison of fish population and sedimentary scale data, both were converted to percentages of the aggregate percid–cyprinid total. Whole scales recovered were almost exclusively percid (45 of 48), thus bore little resemblance to the contemporary fish data. Nevertheless, percentages of scale fragments (Selbrigg: 34 and 66%; Cockshoot: 13 and 87% percid and cyprinid, respectively) and of whole scales and fragments combined (Selbrigg: 54 and 46%; Cockshoot: 46 and 54% percid and cyprinid, respectively) reflected the presence of the numerically dominant fish groups and the broad inter-site differences in their relative abundance (Selbrigg: 36 and 64%; Cockshoot: 10 and 90% percid and cyprinid, respectively). A running mean of scales per sediment volume indicated that some 400 cm3 of sediment was required to accurately characterise the remains present. This study suggests that, with the appropriate methodological considerations (e.g., collection of large sediment samples), fish scale remains may be used to determine the past presence–absence and relative abundance of percid and cyprinid species. As such, this technique may be a valuable supplementary tool for establishing longer-term changes in the fish communities of shallow lakes. 相似文献
45.
冰芯钻取后,样品截取原则和环境记录的初步解释要求对年代-深度剖面有一初步了解,即要求建立冰体随深度变化的时间尺度。根据柯林斯冰帽一年多野外实测资料所揭示的小冰穹运动状况、温度分布、物质平衡和动力学特征,本文采用Dansgarrd-Johnsen模型和等温冰体流动模型(n=3),分别对一支80.2m冰芯的时间尺度进行初步估算。结果表明两种模型断代结果非常接近,在距冰床10m深度处,两模型分别给出1897年和1854年的冰龄。对比指出两种模型计算出的冰帽各深度冰龄最大误差不大于2%。与冰芯中上部含深褐色火山灰冰层的历史记录年代相比误差小于3%。 相似文献
46.
不同时间尺度、季节的气温数据表现出不同的空间平稳特征。为探讨分析空间平稳性对气温插值的影响规律,采用趋势线法对气温数据进行空间平稳性探索,并对比分析不同空间平稳性条件下,普通线性回归、普通克里格、回归克里格的气温插值精度及插值结果的空间分布特点。结果显示:冬季日均、月均气温与年均气温呈现空间非平稳,插值精度随时间序列的增长而提高,随着气温数据逐渐趋于稳定,精度提高的幅度逐渐下降;夏季日均、月均气温呈现空间平稳,随时间序列的增长,插值精度的提高并不显著;夏季日均气温各插值方法的插值精度普遍高于冬季日均气温。与普通克里格相比,回归克里格能有效提高空间非平稳数据的插值精度。时间序列的增长削弱了不同插值算法之间的插值精度差异和插值结果空间分布差异。 相似文献
47.
A Queer Country? A case study of the politics of gay/lesbian belonging in an Australian country town
The present paper examines the complex politics of gay/lesbian belonging through a case study of Daylesford, Victoria, an Australian country town. It contributes to two research bodies: gay/lesbian rural geographies and the politics of belonging. Daylesford hosts ChillOut, Australia's largest rural gay/lesbian festival, which provides a telling context for investigating gay/lesbian belonging in rural Australia. We use qualitative data from the 2006 ChillOut Festival, including interviews with local residents, newspaper commentaries, and visitors’ surveys, to explore how Daylesford has been constructed, imagined, and experienced as a ‘unique’ site of gay/lesbian belonging in rural Australia. We find that ChillOut crucially contributes to its wider reputation as a gay-friendly country town, but also, we argue, to the contested nature of gay/lesbian belonging. This was most powerfully demonstrated by the local council's refusal to fly the gay-identified rainbow flag on the Town Hall during the 2006 Festival and its subsequent banning of the display of all festival flags from that key public building. Because ChillOut was the catalyst for this protocol, the resolution was viewed as homophobic. Indeed, the homophobic and heterosexist rhetoric that ensued in the Letters to the Editor section of the local newspaper revealed some residents’ underlying antagonism towards ChillOut and the local gay/lesbian community. Moreover, appealing to a shared ‘Australian identity’ and associated normative ‘family values’, these letter writers deployed a multi-scalar politics of belonging, where a sense of gay/lesbian belonging to Daylesford at the local scale was contested by the assertion of a ‘more meaningful’ national scale of allegiance fashioned by heteronormativity. 相似文献
48.
《International Journal of Digital Earth》2013,6(11):1098-1117
ABSTRACTDetecting changes in vegetation, distinguishing the persistence of changes, and seeking their causes during multiple periods are important to gaining a deeper understanding of vegetation dynamics. Using the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) version NDVI3g dataset in the Tibetan Plateau, the trends in the seasonal components of NDVI and their linkage with climatic factors were analyzed over 14 asymptotic periods of 18–31 years since 1982. Dynamic trends in vegetation experienced an obvious increase at regional scale, but the increases of vegetation activity mostly tended to stall or slow down as the studied time period was extended. At pixel scale, areas with significant browning significantly expanded over 14 periods for all seasons, but for significant greening significantly increased only in autumn. The changes of vegetation activity in spring were the most drastic among three seasons. Increased increments of NDVI in summer, spring, and autumn took turns being the main reason for the enhanced vegetation activity in the growing season in the nested 14 periods. Vegetation activity was mainly regulated by a thermal factor, and the dominant climatic drivers of vegetation growth varied across different seasons and regions. We speculate that the increase of NDVI will continue but the increments will decline in all seasons except autumn. 相似文献
49.
中外烈度表“人的感觉”和“器物的反应”对比研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
随着震害经验的积累以及人们对地震认识的深化,不断修改烈度标准,使烈度评定更加客观与科学是地震工程界一直所追求的.人的感觉和器物的反应都是评定一次地震时相应烈度的宏观标志,是烈度表的重要组成部分.鉴于此,本文简要介绍了中国历代地震烈度表(《新的中国地震烈度表》、《中国地震烈度表(1980)》、《中国地震烈度表( 1999... 相似文献
50.
构造应力场转换的成矿地球化学响应 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
以剪切带型金矿为例,基于对中国东部胶东西北部地区及其典型金矿田、金矿床构造应力场与成矿地球化学场的详细研究结果,初步阐释了它们在多重时-空间尺度上的耦合关系。区域尺度上,应力极值区不利于成矿,金矿床就位于应力梯级带,尤其是不同方向应力梯级带的交汇部位。矿田尺度上,成矿物质有从应力高值区向低值区运移的趋势,成矿主期应力梯度的增大有利于成矿元素进一步浓集,应力梯级的强烈变化地段(或时段)往往形成金属元素的大量堆积。矿床尺度上,成矿物质的运移受不同方向剪应力梯级带的叠加影响,金属元素就位于NE和NW向应力梯级带交汇部位缓坡带一侧的次级梯级带之上。多重时-空尺度成矿动力学的深入研究,将可能揭示出这种非线性效应的丰富内涵。 相似文献