基于深度卷积神经网络的剪切波分裂质量检测

剪切波分裂是分析地震各向异性的一种重要手段,常规方法是利用网格搜索获取分裂参数,再通过不同方法的测量结果对比测量结果进行质量检测,这一过程会耗费大量计算时间。本文针对这一问题提出了一种利用深度卷积神经网络对剪切波分裂进行质量检测的新方法,对使用了Resnet残差结构的深度神经网络进行训练,直接对二分量剪切波波形数据的质量进行分类。整个过程为:神经网络通过卷积层提取波形特征,计算损失函数后反向传播训练模型参数,完成迭代训练后的模型对输入波形数据正向计算自动输出类型。本文利用川西台站接收到的实际数据以及随机生成的合成数据分别对该网络进行训练,均可以获得准确的分类结果。相比于通过多种剪切波分裂方法对比测量结果的质量检测方法,基于神经网络的方法可以省略网格搜索的计算过程直接判断质量类型,在运算速度上的优势明显,并可继续通过训练提高模型的精度,为提升剪切波分裂方法在数据处理过程中的操作效率提供帮助。     

穿越走滑断层海底管道局部屈曲研究及应变响应预测

海洋地震频繁且海底土体环境复杂,当地震导致断层土体发生永久变形后,穿越断层的海底埋地管道也将受迫发生变形。为确定变形后的管道能否正常工作,需根据实际工况对其进行应变响应预测。首先通过有限元计算软件ABAQUS建立管道与走滑断层的三维实体模型,模拟管-土间的接触作用并通过等效边界方法修正模型,得到管道局部屈曲破坏形式及应变分布情况。然后,通过调整有限元模型参数对断层交角、管道工作内压、管道径厚比对管道极限塑性应变的影响进行敏感性分析,定性分析不同敏感性因素对穿越走滑断层海底管道应变响应的影响。最后,在数值模拟数据的基础上通过MATLAB软件利用基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络实现对管道应变响应的精确预测。结果表明:穿越走滑断层管道在发生局部屈曲时,可根据轴向压缩应变突变现象确定管道局部屈曲时对应的断层位移,并且断层交角、管道工作内压和管道径厚比都会对跨断层管道应变响应产生影响。     

Modelling road surface sediment production using a vector geographic information system

Field investigations indicate that unpaved roads are the largest sediment source on St John, US Virgin Islands. Cross-sectional measurements of eroded road surfaces were used to establish an empirical relationship to predict annual road surface erosion as a function of road gradient and contributing drainage area. A model (ROADMOD) for estimating and mapping average annual sediment production from a road network was developed by combining this empirical relationship with a series of network algorithms to analyse road data stored in a vector geographic information system. ROADMOD was used to estimate road surface erosion in two St John catchments with very different road densities but similar land cover, topography and soils. Unpaved roads were found to increase sediment production in the more densely roaded catchment by a factor of three to eight, and in the less-roaded catchment by a factor of 1·3–2·0. Turbidity measurements in the receiving bays of these two catchments are consistent with model predictions and observed sediment delivery processes. Although this model was developed specifically for St John, it can easily be adapted to other locations by substituting a locally derived predictive equation for road erosion. Model assumptions, limitations and potential improvements are discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Marine protected area networks in China: Challenges and prospects

With over 30 years’ experience of managing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), China has established more than 250 MPAs in its coastal and marine areas, but the overall management effectiveness is unimpressive [46]. Recently, China has made commitments to expand the MPA coverage in its waters ([7,52,53]) and develop an “ecological barrier” along the coast by connecting MPAs and islands by 2020 (The State Council 2015). In this context, this study reviews major challenges in current MPA practices in China, including the lack of systematic and scientific approaches, inadequate laws and regulations, ineffective governance mechanisms, conflicts between conservation and exploitation, limited funding, and inadequate monitoring programs. Four scenarios for developing China's MPA networks are developed and analyzed based on a literature review of experience in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the European Union and the Philippines, as well as a set of interviews with Chinese MPA experts. These scenarios include: 1) creating a national system with an inventory of MPAs, 2) developing social networks, 3) developing regional ecological networks, and 4) developing a national representative network. The first two scenarios focus on the enhancement of the governance system through connecting individual MPAs as a social, institutional, and learning network, which could provide opportunities for creating an ecologically coherent network, while the latter two emphasized ecological connectivity and representativeness. Given different focuses, they can be applied at different stages of implementation and combinations of scenarios can be used depending on China's needs.     

comparison of locations of rushan earthquake swarm from large and small network

A notable swarm occurred in Rushan, Shandong Peninsula and its activities continue since Oct. 2013 till now. Up to Sept. 30, 2014, more than 7 000 events have been recorded, in which locatable shocks exceed 2000, and 18 events with M_L≥3.0. The swarm is rarely seen in East China for its extraordinary duration time and surprising high frequency of aftershocks. 18 temporary seismometers have been deployed around the swarm since May 6, 2014, and composed a seismic array for monitoring the swarm activities. Based on data from permanent networks and temporary array, we relocated the earthquake sequence by using hypoDD method. It has been shown that, there is obvious difference between permanent network results and temporary array results. The permanent network of Shandong has a relative large coverage gap(more than 200°)for this swarm. Its location results therefore should not be reliable. There are maybe other errors in the permanent network result due to some problems in the raw data, such as too few stations for most locatable events(3 stations), and relative lower proportion of located events in final result(74.3%, while 95.1% in temporary array result). It can be found by comparing location results from permanent network and temporary array that, using temporary array's data can improve the location accuracy significantly. The results of temporary array are: aftershocks distribution of Rushan swarm is in NWW direction, the dip-direction of fitted fault plane is SW, and the strike and dip angle agree with focal mechanism of the mainshock. Focal depths of aftershocks are at 4.5～8km; the swarm is restricted in a small area about 3km×3km×1km, and has some characteristics such as clustering, staged activities, and etc; the aftershock activities are in accord with crack growth behavior pattern, hence we deduced that there may be fluid intrusion in source area. Finally, we discussed the seismogenic structures and active mechanisms of this swarm combined with relative geologic knowledge. We draw some conclusions as follows: 1)Rushan swarm probably occurred at the boundary of rock bodies of Duogu Mountain and Haiyangsuo super-unit; 2)The seismogenic structure is a blind fault, which should be a part of adjacent Heishankuang-Jilincun Fault, or might be a new fault at rock body boundaries; 3)Rushan swarm might be an evidence for the existence of the disputed Shidao Fault.     

南海实现和谐之路

中国最早发现和开发利用南海及其诸岛,南海之名始见于周朝,距今3 000多年,至秦汉时,已开发南海至印度洋的航运和商贸事业。南海诸岛和南海部分海域属于中国领土和海疆,标示在中国出版的地图中为断续国界线。南海周边国家关系历来大多处于和谐状态,其中秦汉南海海上丝绸之路和明朝郑和船队下西洋为其中显著发展的和谐时段。而自中世纪以来,域外强国侵入南海,使南海区域在相当长时间内处于严重不和谐状态。其中,15―19世纪,欧美殖民主义者侵占南海周边各国。20世纪上半叶,日本殖民主义者开始侵占中国南海诸岛,并在第二次世界大战中吞占了整个南海区域;20世纪下半叶,法国和美国相继挑起印度支那战争和越南战争。南海周边部分国家霸占中国南海诸岛许多岛礁,并在其上建筑和扩建机场及港口,扩军备,分割其海疆并掠夺其海洋石油天然气资源。中国必须开展积极的外交和军事活动,尤其是加强国防建设,在南海诸岛建设海空军基地,才能保护中国南海油气和渔业资源的开发和运输畅通,并尽早收回全部岛礁主权,使南海周边国家愿意“共同开发”,创造和谐的南海。     

Seismic reliability assessment of urban water networks

We present a framework for the seismic risk assessment of water supply networks, operating in either normal or abnormal conditions. We propose a methodology for assessing the reliability of water pipe networks combining data of past non‐seismic damage and the vulnerability of the network components against seismic loading. Historical data are obtained using records of damages that occur on a daily basis throughout the network and are processed to produce‘survival curves’, depicting their estimated survival rate over time. The fragility of the network components is assessed using the approach suggested in the American Lifelines Alliance guidelines. The network reliability is assessed using graph theory, whereas the system network reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology proposed is demonstrated both on a simple, small‐scale, network and also on a real‐scale district metered area from the water network of the city of Limassol, Cyprus. The proposed approach allows the estimation of the probability that the network fails to provide the desired level of service and allows the prioritization of retrofit interventions and of capacity‐upgrade actions pertaining to existing water pipe networks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

宽频带地震台网在滑坡地质灾害监测预报中的应用

在千将坪滑坡前地震动事件分析基础上,总结滑坡前滑坡体内部岩体形变和破裂所产生地震信号的典型特征,并建立宽频带地震台,对金坪子滑坡体和早谷田危岩体进行监测实验,提取基岩类、土质类和危岩体类3种基本物质组成滑坡的微振动前兆信息特征,为地震台网在滑坡监测预报中的应用推广和监测预报系统软件的研制奠定基础.根据测震学原理,研发滑坡监测分析系统软件（Smas）,可为滑坡大规模活动前快速预警.     

土石坝地震永久变形参数反演方法研究

提出了一种基于径向基网络的土石坝永久变形参数反演分析模型。该模型充分利用了径向基神经网络的非线性映射能力,只需要进行少量的样本设计,即可反演坝体永久变形参数,可以解决土石坝动力参数反演计算耗时长的问题。同时在对永久变形参数进行灵敏度分析的基础上,建立考虑参数灵敏度的网络训练目标函数,进一步提高了反演精度。将所建立的模型用于紫平铺面板堆石坝地震永久变形参数反演,采用三维有限元法进行静动力分析,并采用改进的沈珠江模型计算坝体地震永久变形。结果表明,反演参数计算的大坝地震永久变形和坝体实测永久变形数值接近,趋势一致,因而所建立的模型能够有效地反演坝体地震永久变形参数,为土石坝的动力参数反演提供了一种简便、有效的方法。     

山区公路半填半挖路基沉降控制指标与标准研究

为了避免路基沉降导致路面结构破坏,对适用于山区公路半填半挖路基的沉降控制指标和标准进行了研究。首先,基于常泊松比假定,推导了三维Merchant模型的Prony级数表达式,并以ABAQUS为工具建立了半填半挖路基沉降计算模型。计算结果表明,半填半挖路基工后沉降曲线为“勺”形或“S”形,曲线形状的差异揭示了路基沉降的时空耦合效应。其次,基于路基工后沉降机制分析,提出了如下假定：半填半挖路基工后沉降曲线为中心对称的“S”形,对称中心两侧的曲线段为抛物线。通过沥青路面结构对抛物线形路基沉降的力学响应分析,揭示了路面结构附加弯拉应力与抛物线方程的二次项系数a具有线性关系,据此提出采用a值作为半填半挖路基沉降控制指标。最后,基于沥青路面结构在交通荷载和路基沉降共同作用下的破坏模式,提出了半填半挖路基沉降控制标准的确定方法。研究成果为合理控制半填半挖路基工后沉降提供了明确的技术依据。