A proposal for comparing the reliabilities of alternative seismic hazard models

Differences between statistical unertainty and modeling uncertainty are briefly discussed. It is pointed out that, when different models are proposed for the interpretation of reality, the uncertainty cannot be described in terms of mean value and coefficient of variation. The important question is: which of the proposed models is more reliable than the others? The attention, then, is concentrated on the comparison between different models proposed for the estimate of the required quantity, looking for a criterion leading to the selection of the most reliable one. A criterion for comparison of different models is suggested. In the example of application considered in this paper, it proved to be effective, so that the continuation of numerical experiments, exploring different and more complex situations, seems promising.     

Inversion of focal mechanism and events identification using an improved relative amplitude method

The relative amplitude method(RAM) is more suitable for source inversion of low magnitude earthquakes because it avoids the modeling of short-period waveforms.We introduced an improved relative amplitude method(IRAM) which is more robust in practical cases.The IRAM uses a certain function to quantify the fitness between the observed and the predicted relative amplitudes among direct P wave,surface reflected pP and sP waves for a given focal mechanism.Using the IRAM,we got the fault-plane solutions of two ea...     

Constructing temporal and spatial water vapor figures by GPS remote sensing along slant rays

A Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver can generally track 5-7 rays from GPS satellites at any moment, and water vapor along these ray paths (slant-path water vapor, SWV) may be retrieved using the methods developed in recent years. This paper suggests two new parameters-absolute vertical SWV (VSWV) and relative VSWV derived from SWV, and their temporal and spatial figures can reflect the heterogeneous distribution and variation of water vapor field. This approach has been applied to the weather diagnoses in a severe storm event in Beijing during July 2004, and it is concluded that the temporal and spatial figures of absolute VSWV and relative VSWV can be useful in monitoring the evolution of water vapor field and be potential in better understanding the precipitation process.     

An expanded surface-water palaeotemperature inference model for use with fossil midges from eastern Canada

Using an expanded surface sample data set, representing lakes distributed across a transect from southernmost Canada to the Canadian High Arctic, a revised midge-palaeotemperature inference model was developed for eastern Canada. Modelling trials with weighted averaging (with classical and inverse deshrinking; with and without tolerance downweighting) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression, with and without square-root transformation of the species data, were used to identify the best model. Comparison of measured and predicted temperatures revealed that a 2 component WA-PLS model for square-root transformed percentage species data provided the model with the highest explained variance (r =0.88) and the lowest error estimate (RMSEP _jack =2.26 °C). Comparison of temperature inferences based on the new and old models indicates that the original model may have seriously under-estimated the magnitude of late-glacial temperature oscillations in Atlantic Canada. The new inferences suggest that summer surface water temperatures in Splan Pond, New Brunswick were approximately 10 to 12 °C immediately following deglaciation and during the Younger Dryas. During the Allerod and early Holocene, surface water temperatures of 20 to 24 °C were attained. The new model thus provides the basis for more accurate palaeotemperature reconstructions throughout easternmost Canada.     

云南丽江树轮δ18O记录的大气环流变化信息

通过对云南玉龙雪山丽江冷杉年轮晚材纤维素氧同位素 (δ¹⁸O) 的分析,建立了1902-2004时段年分辨率的树轮δ¹⁸O序列。将所得序列与相邻的丽江市气象站记录的气候资料对比,分析了树轮δ¹⁸O对气候要素的响应。结果表明,丽江冷杉年轮晚材中的δ¹⁸O与其生长季气候因子密切相关。主要与季风期 (8-10月) 的降水和相对湿度、6-10月总云量、5-6月平均温度显著相关,尤其和总云量相关性最高 (r = -0.45,P = 0.01)。同时,树轮δ¹⁸O年际变化与南亚季风指数、东亚夏季风指数呈反相关关系,并与1-5月南方涛动指数负相关显著,在一定程度上反映了大尺度的大气环流影响。     

Synchronising geometric representations for map mashups using relative positioning and Linked Data

Map mashups, as a common way of presenting geospatial information on the Web, are generally created by spatially overlaying thematic information on top of various base maps. This simple overlay approach often raises geometric deficiencies due to geometric uncertainties in the data. This issue is particularly apparent in a multi-scale context because the thematic data seldom have synchronised level of detail with the base map. In this study, we propose, develop, implement and evaluate a relative positioning approach based on shared geometries and relative coordinates to synchronise geometric representations for map mashups through several scales. To realise the relative positioning between datasets, we adopt a Linked Data–based technical framework in which the data are organised according to ontologies that are designed based on the GeoSPARQL vocabulary. A prototype system is developed to demonstrate the feasibility and usability of the relative positioning approach. The results show that the approach synchronises and integrates the geometries of thematic data and the base map effectively, and the thematic data are automatically tailored for multi-scale visualisation. The proposed framework can be used as a new way of modelling geospatial data on the Web, with merits in terms of both data visualisation and querying.     

相对湿度对黄瓜叶片光合特性的影响

以黄瓜“津优1号”为试材,于2011年4月在南京信息工程大学进行人工环境控制试验,设计8个相对湿度梯度,用LI 6400进行光合参数的测定,系统研究不同相对湿度处理对黄瓜叶片光合特性的影响。结果表明：黄瓜叶片的净光合速率和胞间CO2浓度随着相对湿度的减小而降低;气孔导度、蒸腾速率和叶片的水分利用效率在相对湿度为75%时达到最大;而气孔限制值在相对湿度为75%时降到最低;黄瓜叶片最大光合作用速率（Pmax）与空气相对湿度呈指数关系：Pmax=22375e189085fRH;随空气相对湿度的减小,黄瓜叶片的表观量子效率、光饱和点均降低,而光补偿点增加;相关分析表明,净光合速率与叶面水汽压差呈负相关,而与气孔导度、胞间CO2浓度、相对湿度、蒸腾速率均呈正相关,且相关性均达到极显著水平。     

阜康日光温室内温湿度与外界气象要素的相关性分析

根据2011—2012年阜康六运温室内温湿度和附近气象站观测资料,利用相关和逐步回归分析,对不同天气状况下阜康地区日光温室内温湿度变化特征及其与外界气象要素的关系进行了研究。结果表明,不同天气状况下温室内的气温和空气相对湿度均有明显的日变化。影响日光温室内温湿度的主要因子为外界的日照时数、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、空气湿度以及温室内前一天的温度和空气湿度等。建立了日光温室内外气象要素的相关模型,经拟合检验和应用检验,不同天气状况下日光温室内日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、空气平均相对湿度、空气最小相对湿度的平均绝对误差分别在1.5℃、2.6℃、2.0℃、6.2%、9.6%以内,平均相对误差大部分在10%以内,具有较高的精度。确定了温室生火增温、移栽定植、通风及覆盖保温等气象服务指标。     

2002年7～8月海河流域面雨量预报的误差分析

对天津市气象台和河北省气象台在2002年7—8月的海河流域面雨量24h、48h预报进行了误差对比分析，列举了几种预报误差，并利用模糊数学中的综合评判法，计算了它们的模糊评分。结果表明：海河流域的面雨量预报有一定的可信度，把其作为水文模式的初值，有较高的利用价值；对于各气象台各自辖区内的预报，范围越小，预报越准确；在对面雨量预报效果的评估上，80％(或80)这一数值是客观、可信的。