青藏高原积雪分布与变化特征

本文对青藏高原ＳＭＭＲ修积雪深度、ＮＯＡＡ周积雪面积、地面台站积雪深度进行了分析。结果表明青藏高原东西两侧多雪与腹地少雪形成鲜明对比,高原东部是高原积雪年际变化最显著的地区,它主导了整个高原积雪的年际变化,并且与西部多雪区年际波动呈反位相关系。从６０年代到８０年代积雪年际波动幅度有明显增加趋势,积雪变化具有３年左右准周期。随着全球变暖,青藏高原积雪将会有所增加。     

利用红外相机监测新疆天池博格达峰自然保护区鸟兽资源

红外相机技术目前已成为监测陆栖哺乳动物和地栖鸟类的常用技术手段。为监测新疆天池博格达峰自然保护区内鸟类和兽类资源,于2019年7月—2020年9月,在保护区内选取30个红外相机位点共布设58台红外相机,累积工作29730个工作日,共获得99850份图像及视频数据,采集独立有效照片5744张;共观测到野生陆生脊椎动物9目19科29种,其中兽类5目10科15种,鸟类4目9科14种。观测到的动物中有国家I级重点保护野生动物雪豹（Panthera uncia）,国家II级重点保护野生动物6种,分别为北山羊（Capra sibirica）、马鹿（Cervus canadensis）、猞猁（Lynx lynx）、赤狐（Vulpes vulpes）、黑鸢（Milvus migrans）以及暗腹雪鸡（Tetraogallus himalayensis）。森林生境中,兽类相对多度指数最高的是马鹿（RAI=60.569）,鸟类相对多度指数最高的是山斑鸠（Streptopelia orientalis,RAI=0.854）;高山草甸及裸岩生境中,兽类相对多度指数最高的是马鹿（RAI=18.693）,鸟类相对多度指数最高的是暗腹雪鸡（RAI=0.316）和黄嘴山鸦（Pyrrhocorax graculus,RAI=0.854）。物种累积曲线结果显示：兽类物种数在200 d之后几乎不再增长,而鸟类物种数在100 d之后增速放缓但一直持续增长,表明时长450 d的红外相机监测力度对保护区中的兽类而言较为充分,对鸟类而言还不够充分。研究结果可为新疆天池博格达峰自然保护区野生陆生脊椎动物多样性监测与评估提供数据参考,为该保护区的保护管理工作提供科学依据。     

方向分布对三维聚焦波浪波面特性影响研究

波浪聚焦被认为是产生极限波浪的重要机理之一,近年来受到普遍重视。通过高阶谱方法,引入造波边界建立数值计算模型,模拟聚焦波浪在不同方向分布时的产生和聚焦过程,研究波浪的方向分布对聚焦波浪的波面、波峰最大值、聚焦点的偏移、波面参数及频谱的影响。研究结果表明波浪方向分布越窄,波浪的非线性影响越强、波面越陡,波峰值、聚焦点的偏移和波面特征参数都越大;同时方向分布对波浪聚焦前后的能量具有很大的影响。     

Argo floats revealing bimodality of large-scale mid-depth circulation in the North Atlantic

Analysis of Argo float trajectories at 1 000 m and temperature at 950 m in the North Atlantic between November 2003 and January 2005 demonstrates the existence of two different circulation modes with fast transition between them. Each mode has a pair of cyclonic - anticyclonic gyres. The difference is the location of the cyclonic gyre. The cyclonic gyre stretches from southeast to northwest in the first mode and from the southwest to the northeast in the second mode. The observed modes strongly affect the heat and salt transport in the North Atlantic. In particular, the second mode slows down the westward transport of the warm and saline water from the Mediterranean Sea.     

Logistic回归联合ROC曲线模型在雷电潜势预报中的应用

利用贵阳站2020年1—10月逐日探空资料和闪电监测资料,逐一选取72个物理量参数纳入单因素逻辑回归,筛选具有显著性统计学意义(P<0.001)的指标进入多因素逻辑回归模型,选取满足检验条件P<0.05的参数得到雷电潜势预报模型,通过Logistic回归联合ROC曲线模型开展雷电潜势预报研究。结果表明：(1)多因素逻辑回归模型预警效果优于单因素模型,预警准确度从75.4%提高到79.5%;(2)联合ROC曲线确定预报模型的概率阈值为0.611,雷电潜势预报的命中率POD为84.01%,虚假警报率FAR为26.05%,临界成功指数CSI为69.38%,准确率较高,雷电潜势预报具有较好的预报能力;(3)Logistic回归模型联合ROC曲线法在气象预测预报,特别是非线性预测中有一定的应用价值。     

面波频散谱多模式高分辨率成像的多道信号比较法

高分辨率的面波频散谱成像是浅层地震勘探领域基于频散性质反演横波速度结构中的一个关键步骤.在天然地震探测领域,仅利用两个台站记录的线性信号比较法(LSC),被广泛用来计算面波的频散谱,并用于大尺度的面波层析成像.然而互相关的成像方式会造成频散谱在低频端较低的分辨率.非线性信号比较法(NLSC)利用指数函数克服了这个问题,同时极大地提高了频散谱的成像分辨率.然而,在研究中我们发现,仅利用两个台站的地震记录,并不能将面波的频散特性完整地考虑在内,导致LSC和NLSC方法对高阶模式的成像存在较大的误差.由于主动源面波勘探多道采集的方式,基于信号比较理论的多道信号比较法(MSC)充分利用多道地震信号,可以获得准确的多模式成像,然而该方法需要计算任意两道的频散谱并叠加,存在冗余的计算,导致计算效率较低.因此,本研究对MSC方法进行了相应的改进,通过追踪炮集记录上的面波波组提高了原方法的计算效率,同时,利用理论频散曲线进行叠加分析,验证了改进的MSC方法的正确性和有效性.通过与相移法、LSC和NLSC方法的对比分析,展示了MSC方法是一种准确的、高分辨率的面波多模式频散谱成像方法.实际地震资料的应用...     

安丘台定点形变监测与地震活动性的相关性分析

应用安丘台跨断层定点形变的水准观测资料进行一般多项式曲线分段拟合,结合周边的地震活动背景．研究断层活动与地震活动之间的关系。结果表明,断层活动和周边的地震活动在频度上存在对应关系。可利用断层活动与地震活动的对应关系,为台站周边地区的地震预报提供参考指标。     

Using sediment rating parameters to evaluate the changes in sediment transport regimes in the middle Yellow River basin,China

This study analyses the changes in sediment transport regimes in the middle Yellow River basin (MYRB) using sediment rating parameters. Daily streamflow and suspended sediment concentration data were collected at 35 hydrological stations from the 1950s to 2016, which can be divided into three periods based on the type and intensity of human activities: the base stage before 1970, the restraining stage from 1971 to 1989, and the restoration stage after 2002. Data within each period were fitted by log‐linear sediment rating curves and the sediment rating parameters were utilized to analyse the spatial and temporal variations in sediment transport regimes. The results show that sediment rating parameters are indicative of sediment transport regimes. In the base stage and the restraining stage, the hydrological stations can be categorized into four groups based on their locations on the rating parameter plot. The stations with small drainage basins were characterized by the highest sediment transport regime, followed by those located in the coarse‐particle zone, the loess zone, and the mountainous/forest zone. In the restoration stage, the difference in sediment transport regimes between different geomorphic zones became less distinguishable than in previous stages. During the transition from the base stage to the restraining stage, sediment rating parameters showed no significant changes in sediment transport regimes in all four geomorphic groups. During the transition from the restraining stage to the restoration stage, significant changes were observed in the coarse‐particle zone and the mountain/forest zone, indicating that the revegetation programme and large reservoirs imposed a stronger influence on sediment transport regimes in these two zones than in the rest of the MYRB. This study provides theoretical support for evaluating sediment transport regimes with sediment rating parameters.     

Storage in confined aquifer: Spectral analysis of groundwater in responses to Earth tides and barometric effect

Dilatation of aquifer and associated water level fluctuation in groundwater well is known to be driven periodically from lunar, solar, or other tidal forces. Time‐dependent variables in groundwater system, such as water level, can be converted to power spectra in the frequency domain using Fourier transform to evaluate significant fluctuation. The major innovation of this research is to develop spectral representation in frequency domain for the groundwater system that the storage in confined aquifer can be determined considering dilatation affected by Earth tides and barometric effect. In order to verify applicability of the evolved method, time series of Earth tides and barograph are collected; aquifer storage is then determined inversely by selecting significant semidiurnal and diurnal components in spectra computation. It suggests that to discover groundwater storage using groundwater level with barograph and tidal potential of Earth in frequency domain becomes accessible and feasible.     

Analytical solution for transient groundwater flow during slug test in vertical cutoff walls

An analysis method for transient groundwater flow during slug tests performed in vertical cutoff walls is presented. The analytical solution for evaluating hydraulic conductivity of vertical cutoff walls is derived by applying the method of images to the previously developed analytical solution that is exclusively applicable to an infinite aquifer. Two distinct boundary conditions are considered to account for the configuration of the vertical cutoff wall: the wall‐soil formation interfaces with or without the existence of filter cakes, that is, constant‐head boundary and no‐flux boundary conditions. A series of type curves is constructed from the analytical solution and compared with those of a partially penetrated well within an aquifer. The constant‐head boundary condition provides faster hydraulic head recovery than the aquifer case. On the other hand, the no‐flux boundary condition leads to a delayed hydraulic head recovery. The greater the shape factor and well offset from the center of the cutoff wall, and the smaller the width of the cutoff wall, the greater the effect of the boundary condition observed in the type curves. This result shows the significance of considering proper boundary conditions at the vertical cutoff wall in analyzing slug tests. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.