黄海南部小黄鱼洄游分布及种群结构特征

Monthly fishery survey data of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea from2003 and 2013 were employed to evaluate the variation in the resource distribution and biological characteristics(especially body length and sex ratio) in the population on a decadal scale.The results indicated that the small yellow croaker migrated from the Shawai fishing ground to the Dasha fishing ground in spring and was mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Dasha fishing ground in April and May.Larimichthys polyactis in the Dasha fishing ground migrated eastward to offshore wintering grounds in autumn and reached the central Dasha fishing ground in October and November.The small yellow croaker entered the western waters of the Shawai fishing ground in winter.A large number of age 0+ fish occurred in the Shawai and Jiangwai fishing grounds in October of 2003 and 2013.The body lengths of the spawning stock and wintering stock in 2013 were larger than those in 2003,and the monthly sex ratios(female to male) were significantly less than 1 in both years.The monthly distribution of this fish in the southern Yellow Sea was consistent with a previous finding that "the stock migrated between the wintering grounds in the west of Jeju Island and the Lüsi spawning grounds" but tended to move more northward,with the spawning grounds extending outward.In the past decade,body length variation experienced a decline after an increase,rather than a steady decrease.The sex ratio in the single-stick stow net showed a tendency to increase over the decade,but was either less than or more than 1 depending on the fishing gear;therefore,further studies should be conducted to determine the sex structure.     

苏里格大型致密砂岩气田储层结构与水平井提高采收率对策

在分析苏里格气田辫状河体系及储层结构特征的基础上,提出了剖面储量集中度的概念,建立了厚层块状型、垂向叠置泛连通型、分散局部连通型、分散孤立型4种砂体分布模式,探讨了不同储层结构下的水平井采出程度,提出了水平井提高采收率技术对策。研究结果表明,辫状河沉积体系复合有效砂体由于“阻流带”的存在,直井动用不完善,水平井能克服“阻流带”的影响,提高层内储量动用程度;但由于砂体多层状分散分布,水平井开发会导致纵向含气层系储量动用不充分,影响层间采出程度。对于剖面储量集中度高的厚层块状型、垂向叠置泛连通型储层,采用水平井整体开发,Ⅰ+Ⅱ类井比例达70%以上,可显著提高储量动用程度和采收率。对于剖面储量集中度低的分散局部连通型储层,采用直井井网开发后进行甜点式优选水平井井位加密部署,可提高采收率10%以上。     

基于人工鱼群算法和SCA等效理论的井中横波速度预测方法

在建立页岩岩石物理模型的基础上,根据等效自相容近似(SCA)岩石物理模型,构建出岩石的纵波速度、横波速度与岩石密度、组分和孔隙度等的定量关系,得出使理论纵波速度和实际纵波速度最接近的孔隙纵横比,进而将该孔隙纵横比作为约束条件来实现横波速度预测。反演算法利用人工鱼群算法来计算最佳孔隙纵横比,并将预测的横波速度与实际测得的横波速度对比,证明了人工鱼群算法的有效性。     

Development of groundwater favourability map using GIS-based driven data mining models: an approach for effective groundwater resource management

The development of groundwater favourability map is an effective tool for the sustainability management of groundwater resources in typical agricultural regions, such as southern Perak Province, Malaysia. Assessing the potentiality and pollution vulnerability of groundwater is a fundamental phase of favourability mapping. A geographic information system (GIS)-based Boolean operator of a spatial analyst module was applied to combine a groundwater potentiality map (GPM) model and a groundwater vulnerability to pollution index (GVPI) map, thereby establishing the favourable zones for drinking water exploration in the investigated area. The area GPM model was evaluated by applying a GIS-based Dempster–Shafer–evidential belief function model. In the evaluation, six geoelectrically determined groundwater potential conditioning factors (i.e. overburden resistivity, overburden thickness, aquifer resistivity, aquifer thickness, aquifer transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity) were synthesized by employing the probability-based algorithms of the model. The generated thematic maps of the seven hydrogeological parameters of the DRASTIC model were considered as pollution potential conditioning factors and were analysed with the developed ordered weighted average–DRASTIC index model algorithms to construct the GVPI map. Approximately 88.8 and 85.71% prediction accuracies for the Groundwater Potentiality and GVPI maps were established using the reacting operating characteristic curve method and water quality status–vulnerability zone relationship scheme, respectively. Finally, the area groundwater favourability map (GFM) model was produced by applying a GIS-based Boolean operator on the Groundwater Potentiality and GVPI maps. The GFM model reveals three distinct zones: ‘not suitable’, ‘less suitable’ and ‘very suitable’ zones. The area analysis of the GFM model indicates that more than 50% of the study area is covered by the ‘very suitable’ zones. Results produce a suitability map that can be used by local authorities for the exploitation and management of drinking water in the area. The study findings can also be applied as a tool to help increase public awareness of groundwater issues in developing countries.     

确定砂土动剪切模量和阻尼比的方法对比

确定土体动剪切模量的常用方法有规范法、Kumar法和自相关函数法,确定相应阻尼比的方法有规范法、Das and Luo法、Kokusho法、Kumar法和互相关函数法,为了分析不同方法所产生差异,实现定量化对比分析,笔者以福建标准砂（粒径为0.5~1.0 mm）为研究对象,采用不排水的应力控制动三轴试验,探讨不同的确定土体动剪切模量和阻尼比方法的差异性,并给出了不同土体条件建议选用的方法。结果表明：1）3种方法确定动剪切模量的结果有一定的差异,随剪应变的增大结果的差异逐渐增大,有效围压对结果的差异性有所影响,当剪应变为4×10^-3,有效围压为100 kPa时,3种方法差异显著,相对误差最大接近20%;2）而5种方法确定阻尼比的结果差异显著,随着剪应变的增大,5种方法确定的阻尼比相对误差大体上均在迅速减小,只有规范法在有效围压为100 kPa时,其相对误差有较小的增大趋势;5种方法中,Kumar法确定的阻尼比最接近平均阻尼比,互相关函数法远高于平均阻尼比,Das and Luo法和Kokusho法确定的阻尼比基本一致但低于平均阻尼比。建议以后的工程应用中,加载方式为应力控制时,可采用自相关函数法确定动剪切模量,采用Kumar法确定阻尼比,二者确定的动剪切模量和阻尼比均最接近平均值。     

Landslide susceptibility zonation method based on C5.0 decision tree and K-means cluster algorithms to improve the efficiency of risk management

Machine learning algorithms are an important measure with which to perform landslide susceptibility assessments,but most studies use GIS-based classification methods to conduct susceptibility zonation.This study presents a machine learning approach based on the C5.0 decision tree(DT)model and the K-means cluster algorithm to produce a regional landslide susceptibility map.Yanchang County,a typical landslide-prone area located in northwestern China,was taken as the area of interest to introduce the proposed application procedure.A landslide inventory containing 82 landslides was prepared and subse-quently randomly partitioned into two subsets:training data(70％landslide pixels)and validation data(30％landslide pixels).Fourteen landslide influencing factors were considered in the input dataset and were used to calculate the landslide occurrence probability based on the C5.0 decision tree model.Susceptibility zonation was implemented according to the cut-off values calculated by the K-means clus-ter algorithm.The validation results of the model performance analysis showed that the AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve)of the proposed model was the highest,reaching 0.88,compared with traditional models(support vector machine(SVM)=0.85,Bayesian network(BN)=0.81,frequency ratio(FR)=0.75,weight of evidence(WOE)=0.76).The landslide frequency ratio and fre-quency density of the high susceptibility zones were 6.76/km2 and 0.88/km2,respectively,which were much higher than those of the low susceptibility zones.The top 20％interval of landslide occurrence probability contained 89％of the historical landslides but only accounted for 10.3％of the total area.Our results indicate that the distribution of high susceptibility zones was more focused without contain-ing more"stable"pixels.Therefore,the obtained susceptibility map is suitable for application to landslide risk management practices.     

台风“摩羯”与“温比亚”环流中龙卷小尺度涡旋特征及可预警性分析

利用多普勒天气雷达探测资料,结合常规气象观测资料和天气实况及灾情调查,对2018年8月14日台风“摩羯”（1814）和8月19日台风“温比亚”（1818）产生龙卷的环境物理量及龙卷风暴强度结构特征进行了分析,对诱发龙卷和未诱发龙卷的小尺度气旋性涡旋特征进行了对比。结果表明：两次台风减弱低压东北象限是龙卷发生的关键区,低层高湿,强的低层垂直风切变和大的相对风暴螺旋度是关键物理量;龙卷出现时都伴有ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1的小尺度气旋性涡旋,且基本出现在2.0 km高度以下,但并不是所有这种低层小尺度气旋性涡旋都能诱发龙卷;以ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1为阈值,龙卷识别具有较高的命中率,识别准确率为31.8%,空报率为67.4%,漏报率为6.7%;约35.7%的龙卷没有识别时间提前量,半数龙卷几乎没有预警时间提前量。     

三维并行合成震源记录叠前深度偏移

提出了一种基于波动理论的三维合成震源记录叠前深度偏移方法,该方法不含任何物理假设,利用波动方程算子的3个性质,合成炮震源及炮震源记录,将面炮记录合成与相位编码合成两种方法在理论上和计算上合二为一,成为一个统一的合成理论. 通过双重叠加把三维叠前五维数据转换为三维数据,既保证了成像质量同炮记录偏移成像一样精确,又显著地提高了计算效率,且适于复杂地质构造成像. 针对不同情况,给出了几种不同的合成算子,使方法在实际应用中有较大的灵活性和选择性. 基于MPI并行算法的实现,进一步提高了计算效率. SEG＼EAGE盐丘C3_NA数据模型上的试算结果和新疆三维起伏地表实际地震资料的处理结果进一步说明了该方法的有效性和实用性.     

相控震源对地震信号信噪比的改善研究

当测区噪声很强,采用组合震源工作仍然不能满足信噪比要求时,为进一步提高地震勘探信噪比,引入能形成定向地震波的相控震源.针对水平层状介质模型,对组合震源、相控震源地震进行了数值模拟,并定量计算了采用4,8,15,20单元的组合与相控震源地震数据的信噪比,同组合地震相比,相控地震使来自不同反射层的反射波信号的信噪比平均提高了154～990 dB.结果表明,相控震源地震得到的反射波信号信噪比高于组合地震,并且随着激震器数目增加,相控震源合成地震记录中的反射波地震数据信噪比明显提高.     

关于井炮激发参数优化设计的思考

利用正演模拟的手段进行分析,对影响井炮激发的不同影响因素展开分析,结合对炸药特征阻抗与围岩的阻抗匹配系数、炸药几何耦合系数、激发药量、井深等方面进行分析,对井炮激发参数进行优化设计.通过优化设计,寻求有效提高地震子波品质的方法.结合实际的地震地质条件和地震勘探目标,设计最佳的井炮激发参数,提高地震勘探的效益.