基于ROSE2.0的普洱地区CINRAD/CC雷达冰雹探测算法评估及参数本地化

为提高冰雹探测算法（Hail Detection Algorithm,HDA）产品的可用性,针对2015—2020年普洱地区监测到的22次冰雹个例,利用新一代雷达业务应用软件ROSE2.0对相关雷达基数据进行回放及产品分析,以命中率、虚警率、临界成功指数为指标对HDA算法在普洱地区的识别效果进行评估并给出本地化参数配置方案。结果表明:HDA算法在普洱地区命中率接近100%,但虚警现象非常普遍,使用强冰雹概率（Probability of Severe Hail,POSH）的预警效果优于任意大小冰雹概率（Probability of Hail,POH）,且冰雹尺寸越大POSH虚警的概率越低。进一步使用模拟测评法对POSH算法的适配参数进行分析,发现正确输入降雹日当天的0 ℃层和-20 ℃层高度能有效减少POSH的虚警率及提高临界成功指数;同时使算法预测的最大冰雹直径普遍偏大的情况得到控制,其中,中小冰雹直径偏离百分比减小76.07%,改善效果显著高于大冰雹。此外,增大反射率因子及POSH阈值能有效控制虚警,但也导致漏报次数快速增加,当阈值太大时命中率明显降低,为了保证较高的命中率和临界成功指数,选择Z=50 dBz或POSH=70%为阈值能明显改善HDA算法的识别效果。     

长江口泥沙的来源分析与数量计算的研究

本文根据地学原理，建立了长江口泥沙的来源分析与数量计算的模式。定量分析了长江口泥沙来源，计算了泥沙的数量。通过验证表明沙量的计算值与验证值两者十分吻合。     

气候系统及模式中反馈机制研究 I.概念和方法

气候系统中存在着各种各样的气候反馈机制,而气候模式对这些反馈机制描述的差异,正是造成不同模式对同一直接辐射强迫（如二氧化碳加倍）的响应不同的主要原因。因此,只有正确描述气候系统中的各种反馈作用,气候模式才可能用来对未来的气候变化进行预测。为此,本文首先介绍了气候系统及模式反馈机制分析研究时所常用的一些概念,如气候敏感性参数、云辐射强迫等,随后概述了气候模式反馈机制比较分析时常用的各种方法,并指出了这些方法各自的优缺点。而详细的有关气候系统及模式中反馈作用及其机制的分析则在文章的第ＩＩ部分给出。     

基于GIS的小流域土壤侵蚀与产沙的简化模拟

将泥沙输移能力公式与USLE公式相结合,建立了一个简化的分布式小流域产沙模型,并将其应用于川中丘陵区小流域的土壤侵蚀与泥沙输移的空间分布模拟。得到的主要结论:1.该模型适用于川中丘陵区小流域产沙的模拟;2.魏城河流域1980—1987年8 a平均土壤侵蚀量为16.8×104t,侵蚀模数为675.8 t/(km2.a),模拟得到的输沙模数为238.6 t/(km2.a),泥沙输移比为0.35;3.魏城河流域主要以微度侵蚀为主,占到全流域总面积的68%,强度侵蚀占流域面积的1%,主要分布在坡度较陡的流域边缘地带;4.相对其他因子,降雨与坡度对该流域侵蚀产沙的影响更为突出。     

基于均值漂移的粒子滤波算法设计及其在导航数据处理中的应用

针对标准粒子滤波算法中存在的计算量大和粒子的权值退化的缺陷,将均值漂移算法和PF算法进行融合,设计基于均值漂移搜索算法的粒子滤波新算法。该算法仍遵从粒子滤波算法的计算框架,基本原理是利用MS算法对粒子的聚类作用,将均值漂移思想融合到粒子滤波算法的重要性采样过程中,对粒子集进行确定性搜索,使每个粒子收敛于局部最优值,这样粒子的状态表示更接近真实的状态分布,因此只需较少的粒子数便可达到未嵌入MS的使用大量粒子数的粒子滤波状态估计的性能,从而在缓解粒子的权值退化的同时提高粒子滤波算法的实时性。大量的数值试验和对GPS/DR组合导航数据处理的结果验证了该方法的有效性。     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

Methane hydrate formation comparisons in media with and without a water source supply

Water is a necessary element during gas hydrate formations. Therefore, by analyzing water depletion changes in media, the reaction characteristics of methane hydrate in media can be studied. In this study, two water sources supplying some liquid water which may be consumed by the methane hydrate formation reactions were designed and assembled. Using them, the full formation processes of methane hydrate was studied. Experimental results show the following： If heat released from nucleation reaction of methane hydrate is diffused rapidly, the nucleation ratios will be enhanced discernibly. While the hydrate is formed, a force is generated that sucks fresh water from the source into the vicinity of the hydrate, slowing down the cementation process and causing some hydrate grain dissociation. As a result of cementation differences, the hydrate reaction processes with different water sources present linear or quadratic equation characteristics. After a few repeated dissociation and formation processes of some hydrate grains caused by the fresh water, the gas amounts contained in hydrate will be significantly enhanced.     

衍射地震CT技术的数值研究

本文首先解决了声波方程的非Born近似的正演计算问题,从而获得理论上不带近似的正演数据;然后,推导了井间（CBP）、垂直地震剖面（VSP）和地面反射（SRP）三种不同的数据采集方式下的衍射CT的重建公式;利用这些重建算法和正演数据,系统地研究了影响到地球物理CT成象质量的三种因素,即:（1）数据采集方式,（2）异常程度和（3）成象区域的尺寸,对重建图象的影响;并比较了衍射地震CT和射线地震CT的成象质量。     

长江口及其邻近海域粘性泥沙的数量与输移

长江口的粘性泥沙有89.6%以上来源于长江补给区,一部分来源于废黄河与黄海补给区。长江补给区的粘性泥沙的汇入百分数及其输沙量两者均为已知,据此计算出长江口粘性泥沙沉积量为4.554×10~7t/a,从长江口输向杭州湾与东海补给区的粘性泥沙输沙量为2.247×10~7t/a,废黄河与黄海补给区输向长江口的输沙量为2.730×10~7t/a。长江口粘性泥沙的数量同1915年与1963年实测地形图比较量算的数量为4.469X10~7t/a基本相符。     

Transnational technology transfer network in China: Spatial dynamics and its determinants

Patent transfer has been regarded as an important channel for the nations and regions to acquire external technology, and also a direct research object to depict the relationship between supply and demand of technology flow. Therefore, based on traceable patent transfer data, this article has established a dual-pipeline theoretical framework of transnational-domestic technology transfer from the interaction of the global and local(glocal)perspective, and combines social networks, GIS spatial ana...