地下动态导体充电法高精度定量解释

提供了动态导体充电法的高精度定量解释的原理和具体方法。     

川藏公路然乌-鲁朗段地质灾害影响因素定量分析

川藏公路然乌—鲁朗段工程地质条件极其复杂,导致大型地质灾害频繁发生。为了定量地分析各种影响因素对大型地质灾害的贡献,本文根据信息熵的理论和方法,提出了“地质灾害熵”的概念。通过详细分析川藏公路然乌—鲁朗段大型地质灾害资料,选择平均坡度、断层和节理、岩体结构、松散堆积物、水文地质条件、冰川作用和降雨等7个影响因素,分析它们对研究区某些大型地质灾害的影响程度,计算出了各影响因素的“地质灾害熵”。根据“地质灾害熵”计算得到了各影响因素的权重,在一定程度上解决了地质灾害影响因素的定量分析问题。     

表层岩溶带调蓄系数定量计算--以湘西洛塔赵家湾为例

本文以湖南洛塔赵家湾表层岩溶系统为例,综合利用水位、降雨量、蒸发量及泉流量等长观资料,分别对不同降雨特征下的表层岩溶带调蓄系数进行了定量计算,并对影响表层岩溶带调蓄能力的因素进行了分析。计算得到丰水期赵家湾表层岩溶带调蓄系数为0 14～0 2 8,明显小于枯水期调蓄系数0 44 ;但丰水期久旱后表层岩溶带的调蓄能力接近于枯水期;在丰水期,场雨和连续降雨时的调蓄能力比间歇降雨时的小近1倍。实例计算表明:赵家湾表层岩溶带具有一定的调蓄能力,其地下迳流滞后于降雨至少3d ,调蓄系数确实可以用来定量评价表层岩溶带的调蓄能力。     

Aspiration and reality: flood policy, economic damages and the appraisal process

Research shows that flood damage potential has increased significantly in the last 15 years. At the same time, flood policy has shifted away from simplistic flood defence towards 'living with floods' and 'making space for water'. This paper explores the mis-match between the aspiration in policy ideals, the reality of rising potential economic damages and the inability of the flood risk appraisal process to match the aspiration with the reality. Unless investment appraisal procedures are changed, the increase in damages will undermine policy changes that seek a different pattern of flood risk management, away from economically dominated decision-criteria towards more sustainable objectives.     

淮南矿区潘三矿构造发育规律定量研究

本文采用煤层构造形态空间分析、断裂要素数理统计分析等方法,并引入断裂分形维数指标作为刻划断裂构造发育强度的指标之一,对准南矿区潘三矿地质构造进行了定性—定量分析,揭示了矿井地质构造发育的南北分带性和东西分区性特征。     

基于GIS与空间统计分析的可持续发展度量方法研究——以缅甸Myingyan District为例

利用空间信息系统所提供的强大空间数据处理和分析能力，并将之与统计分析软件包的统计分析功能进行有效的集成，建立了基于空间统计分析的可持续发展定量分析评价模型（ＳＢＳＡ）。从在缅甸中部Myingyan县的应用实例来看，该模型能够提示影响Myingyan县可持续发展能力的主导因子，通过对这些因子和可持续发展综合指数的定量化、空间化的分析，为政府部门规划区域综合发展方案，制定发展政策提供很好的决策支持。     

川南区域构造变形及应力场遥感图像定量解析

采用区域构造变形及应力场遥感图像分层解析法，利用遥感TM图像对研究区宏观构造及有关的横张大节理系统进行详细解译，结合物探资料并应用力学方法对区域构造变形场和应力场进行了计算与分析，建立了该区构造变形场和应力场的三维彩色定量解析模式图，通过综合分析研究，对该区构造组合的空间格局及其控矿（油气）规律进行了探讨。     

中国食物安全基础的定量评估

食物安全水平受粮食生产和供给能力、食物结构的多样化以及居民的收入水平或获取维持生命所需食物的能力等因素共同作用和影响。本文从食物安全的内涵出发,依据评价指标选取原则,选定了与食物安全密切相关的评价指标,包括粮食自给率、食物消费水平及居民消费水平等,构建了食物安全可持续性综合指数模型,计算了1950～1998年我国食物安全可持续性综合指数,对我国食物安全可持续状况进行了单因子和多因子综合评价。结果表明:在50年代我国处于食物基本安全状态,60～70年代处于食物不安全状态,80年代初期及至90年代已进入食物安全阶段。从60年代开始食物安全水平逐年提高,80年代以来进入持续良性发展阶段。     

Quantitative models for reconstructing catchment ice-extent using physical-chemical characteristics of lake sediments

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.     

Quantitative biostratigraphy and species evolutionary sequence

Introduction of species evolutionary sequence into the quantitative biostratigraphy is a significant work, either for studying biologic evolution or for making stratigraphic correlation and reconstructing geologic history. The quantitative biostratigraphy is to determine biostratigraphic event sequences by using probabilistic analysis. The evolutionary sequence systematics can efficiently ascertain species evolutionary sequences. Two methods have been proposed to determine the sequence of species-disappearance events: (1) species extinction events can be closed by last occurrence events using quantitative biostratigraphic analysis; (2) the duration of a species may be approximately replaced by the duration of its parent species. To combine these two methods for determining the sequence of species disappearance is the best way up to now. A consulting standard sequence that consists of the speciation sequence of Permian waagenophylloid corals and the biostratigraphic event sequence of other important fossils in Permian is used as an example. The group spearman rank-correlation test is used to test the consulting standard sequence by comparing four types of calculations and two kinds of sequences and to find abnormal events. Based on the found abnormal events in the test, the consulting standard sequence is revised to deal with different conditions. Sequences of speciation and species-disappearance, and species duration are determined. Application of species evolutionary sequence to quantitative biostratigraphy can largely improve the quality of biostratigraphic event sequence. In stratigraphic correlation, furthermore, event sequences have higher precision than range biozones.