共享社会经济路径下中国各省城市化水平预测

城市化水平预测与减缓及适应气候变化研究息息相关。基于国家统计局2005—2015年全国各省区城镇和乡村人口,以各省区2015年人均地区生产总值为指标进行分组,结合IPCC 5种共享社会经济路径（SSPs）的发展特征设置模型参数,运用Logistic模型预测了我国各省区2016—2050年城市化水平。结果表明,到2050年,各省区（除天津、北京、上海、西藏外）在5种典型SSPs下城市化水平收敛于75%左右。其中,SSP1、SSP3、SSP4、SSP5路径下,各省城市化水平比较趋同。而在SSP2路径下,全国总体上从东部到西部城市化程度逐渐降低,空间分布具有明显梯次递减性。5种SSPs路径下城市化速度方面,基本上呈现出中西部快而东部慢、西南快而东北慢的空间分布格局。同时,高收入省份不同路径下的城市化水平差别小,而中低收入省份的差别较大。     

Climate Comparisons and Change Projections for the Northwest Atlantic from Six CMIP5 Models

Abstract

Key physical variables for the Northwest Atlantic (NWA) are examined in the “historical” and two future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations of six Earth System Models (ESMs) available through Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The variables are air temperature, sea-ice concentration, surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity, and ocean mixed-layer depth. Comparison of the historical simulations with observations indicates that the models provide a good qualitative and approximate quantitative representation of many of the large-scale climatological features in the NWA (e.g., annual cycles and spatial patterns). However, the models represent the detailed structure of some important NWA ocean and ice features poorly, such that caution is needed in the use of their projected future changes. Monthly “climate change” fields between the bidecades 1986–2005 and 2046–2065 are described, using ensemble statistics of the changes across the six ESMs. The results point to warmer air temperatures everywhere, warmer surface ocean temperatures in most areas, reduced sea-ice extent and, in most areas, reduced surface salinities and mixed-layer depths. However, the magnitudes of the inter-model differences in the projected changes are comparable to those of the ensemble-mean changes in many cases, such that robust quantitative projections are generally not possible for the NWA.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books Reviewed in this article: Lob Trees in the Wilderness . Clifford and Isabel Ahlgren . Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing . T. D. Allan , ed. Sunbelt Cities: Politics and Growth Since World War II . Richard M. Bernard and Bradley R. Rice , eds. Legacy of Minneapolis: Preservation Amid Change . John R. Borchert , David Gebhard , David Lanegran , and Judith A. Martin . Bloomington, MN: Preparing a Historic Preservation Ordinance. Richard J. Roddewig . The Mountains of Northeastern Tasmania, A Study of Alpine Geomorphology . Nel Caine . Introductory Cartography . John Campbell . Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Changing Climate . Manual of Remote Sensing, Second Edition . 2 Vols. Robert N. Colwell , ed.-in-chief; David S. Simonett and John E. Estes , vol. eds. Remote Sensing in Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology . A. P. Cracknell , ed. Multidimensional Scaling . Mark L. Davison . Environmental Karst . Percy H. Dougherty , ed. The Urban Environment . Ian Douglas . Geomorphology of Europe . Clifford Embleton , ed. An Introduction to South Asia . B. H. Farmer . Great Geological Controversies . A. Hallam . Hazardous Waste Management: In Whose Backyard? Michalann Harthill , ed. Energy for Subsistence . Margaret Haswell . Perspective on Ratzel's Political Geography . James M. Hunter . Economic Deposits and their Tectonic Setting . Charles S. Hutchison . Energy Risk Assessment . Herbert Inhaber . Discovering the Vernacular Landscape . John Brinckerhoff Jackson . Climate and Energy Systems: A Review of Their Interactions . Jill Jäger . Dilemmas in Regional Policy . Antoni Kuklinski and J. G. Lambooy , eds. California Farmland: A History of Large Agricultural Landholdings . Ellen Liebman . The Spatial Organization of New Land Settlement in Latin America . Jacob O. Maos . Dark Continent: Africa as Seen by Americans . Michael McCarthy . Westport, CT: Climatology: An Introduction . John E. Oliver and John J. Hidore . Columbus, OH: The Geography of Warfare . Patrick O'Sullivan and Jesse W. Miller . The Expanding City. Essays in Honour of Professor Jean Gottmann . John Patten , ed. Scotland's Environment During the Last 30,000 Years . Robert J. Price . Integrated Urban Models . S. H. Putman . Development and the Environmental Crisis: Red or Green Alternatives? Michael Redclift .     

Minimum conformal mapping distortion according to Chebyshev’s principle: a case study over peninsular Spain

Defining the distortion of a conformal map projection as the oscillation of the logarithm of its infinitesimal-scale σ, Chebyshev’s principle states that the best (minimum distortion) conformal map projection over a given region Ω of the ellipsoid is characterized by the property that σ is constant on the boundary of that region. Starting from a first map of Ω, we show how to compute the distortion δ₀(Ω) of this Chebyshev’s projection. We prove that this minimum possible conformal mapping distortion associated with Ω coincides with the absolute value of the minimum of the solution of a Dirichlet boundary-value problem for an elliptic partial differential equation in divergence form and with homogeneous boundary condition. If the first map is conformal, the partial differential equation becomes a Poisson equation for the Laplace operator. As an example, we compute the minimum conformal distortion associated with peninsular Spain. Using longitude and isometric latitude as coordinates, we solve the corresponding boundary-value problem with the finite element method, obtaining δ₀(Ω)=0.74869×10⁻³. We also quantify the distortions δ_l and δ_utm of the best conformal conic and UTM (zone 30) projections over peninsular Spain respectively. We get δ_l=2.30202×10⁻³ and δ_utm=3.33784×10⁻³.     

Harmonic maps

Harmonic maps are generated as a certain class of optimal map projections. For instance, if the distortion energy over a meridian strip of the International Reference Ellipsoid is minimized, we are led to the Laplace–Beltrami vector-valued partial differential equation. Harmonic functions x(L,B), y(L,B) given as functions of ellipsoidal surface parameters of Gauss ellipsoidal longitude L and Gauss ellipsoidal latitude B, as well as x(,q), y(,q) given as functions of relative isometric longitude =L–L₀ and relative isometric latitude q=Q–Q₀ gauged to a vector-valued boundary condition of special symmetry are constructed. The easting and northing {x(b,),y(b,)} of the new harmonic map is then given. Distortion energy analysis of the new harmonic map is presented, as well as case studies for (1) B[–40°,+40°], L[–31°,+49°], B₀= ±30°, L₀=9° and (2) B[46°,56°], L{[4.5°, 7.5°]; [7.5°, 10.5°]; [10.5°,13.5°]; [13.5°,16.5°]}, B₀= 51°, L₀ {6°,9°,12°,15°}.     

Quo vadis,hydrology?

This is an invited essay by the Dooge Medallist of the 2017 International Hydrological Prize. The paper reflects a broad perspective on hydrology, as a result of the author’s long experience. It is suggested that transgressing the traditional hydrological perspective, by increasing the scale of research, as well as interdisciplinarization have been, and are likely to remain, key drivers of the development of hydrology. Gaps in knowledge and research challenges are reviewed, and the interlinked areas of stationarity, extremes and projections for the future are discussed. Finally, after reviewing the achievements of Jim Dooge, examples of others following in his footsteps are presented.     

A compromise aspect-adaptive cylindrical projection for world maps

There are two problems with current cylindrical projections for world maps. First, existing cylindrical map projections have a static height-to-width aspect ratio and do not automatically adjust their aspect ratio in order to optimally use available canvas space. Second, many of the commonly used cylindrical compromise projections show areas and shapes at higher latitudes with considerable distortion. This article introduces a new compromise cylindrical map projection that adjusts the distribution of parallels to the aspect ratio of a canvas. The goal of designing this projection was to show land masses at central latitudes with a visually balanced appearance similar to how they appear on a globe. The projection was constructed using a visual design procedure where a series of graphically optimized projections was defined for a select number of aspect ratios. The visually designed projections were approximated by polynomial expressions that define a cylindrical projection for any height-to-width ratio between 0.3:1 and 1:1. The resulting equations for converting spherical to Cartesian coordinates require a small number of coefficients and are fast to execute. The presented aspect-adaptive cylindrical projection is well suited for digital maps embedded in web pages with responsive web design, as well as GIS applications where the size of the map canvas is unknown a priori. We highlight the projection with a height-to-width ratio of 0.6:1, which we call the Compact Miller projection because it is inspired by the Miller Cylindrical projection. Unlike the Miller Cylindrical projection, the Compact Miller projection has a smaller height-to-width ratio and shows the world with less areal distortion at higher latitudes. A user study with 448 participants verified that the Compact Miller – together with the Plate Carrée projection – is the most preferred cylindrical compromise projection.     

21世纪西北太平洋台风变化预估

对近年多个气候模式考虑不同的人类排放情景作了总结,并对21世纪西北太平洋台风变化作了预估。研究表明,集成多个气候模式考虑人类排放情景,预估到21世纪后期,西北太平洋年总编号台风数可能减少,但强台风数及其降水和风速可能增强。需要强调的是,台风的长期预估是极其困难的,存在极大的不确定性,有待作更深入的研究。     

Development implications of demographic trends and projections for an arid region:: the case of the Badia Research and Development Project area of Jordan

Development planners in arid areas face many difficulties in preparing appropriate strategies. Their task is made harder by the dearth of reliable demographic information. This paper presents population projections for the arid area of eastern Jordan covered by the Badia Research and Development Project and evaluates the economic and social implications of these projections over the next 20 years. The paper argues that conventional demographic forecasting methods are extremely problematic when applied to a population such as this. Furthermore, the pastoral economy, which has in the past been the main source of livelihood, cannot hope to sustain the region's future population. High fertility rates will continue to place great stress on the educational and health infrastructure. If appropriate planning responses are not achieved, the demographic regime of the Badia project area and the quality of life of the population may continue to diverge from the patterns found in other parts of Jordan.