求解GM(1,1)模型新总体最小二乘算法

在GM(1,1)模型中系数矩阵和观测向量都是由原始序列组成的。系数矩阵中同样是有误差的,与观测向量中的误差一样,亦来源于原始序列,即它们误差同源。不同位置的相同元素应该有相同的改正数,采用传统总体最小二乘求解则不能达到此目的。针对这一缺陷,推导了一种新的总体最小二乘算法;并且通过算例验证了新方法的可行性和有效性。     

移动测量系统宽幅影像的几何拼接与量测

研究了移动测量系统宽幅影像的拼接与量测算法。通过建立三幅影像柱面全景投影的几何关系,能够直接拼接完成宽幅影像。利用宽幅影像和原始影像间反投影变换关系以及三幅原始影像的同、异步立体像对,可建立宽幅影像与物方空间坐标间一一对应关系,从而实现宽幅影像目标的量测算法。宽幅影像的投影拼接和量测实验表明,利用柱面全景投影拼接得到宽幅影像的方法可应用于移动测量平台宽幅影像序列的拼接;在原始影像具备同步立体像对的条件下,宽幅影像量测的绝对精度可达1 m以内,相对精度可达0.2 m以内,满足城市环境实景目标量测的精度需求。     

结合投影变换和相位相关的海冰运动监测

为提高对渤海海冰旋转和平移运动的监测精度,提出一种基于投影变换的相位相关跟踪方法。选取连续8景静止水色成像仪(GOCI)图像序列,根据特征图像窗口的投影变换构造辅助函数,通过寻求函数最优解得到旋转角度集合,选择修正相关系数确定最佳旋转角度,同时根据相位信息实现海冰样本间亚像素级别的平移跟踪,消除传统相位相关法中因忽略图像相频特性所造成的匹配误差。实验结果表明,以手动测量的旋转角度为基准,该方法和传统相位相关法的旋转监测均方根误差的最大值/平均值分别为0.59/0.50与1.41/0.94,跟踪速度提高了50.6%;海冰平移运动的速度矢量与辽东湾的现场实测数据及历史资料记录数据基本一致。该方法对渤海海冰旋转和平移运动具有较好的跟踪效果。     

低空大比例尺地形图航测生产关键技术

针对传统航空摄影测量生产工艺在生产过程中遇到的影响大比例尺测图精度的问题,该文探讨了低空航测生产大比例尺地形图的关键技术。通过选用宽角相机、低航高飞行、强化影像匹配、野外布设标志控制点、优选平差模型、精化测图操作等改进方式,以提高大比例尺航测精度;组建无人飞艇低空航测系统,对提出的技术方法予以实现;最后给出了山西境内近30个县市建成区1∶500测绘生产实践的部分验证成果。     

一种基于灰度块匹配的视野监测算法

针对视野移动方向的判断问题,该文介绍了运动补偿的常用方法及应用,提出了基于灰度块匹配的视野移动监测算法。通过对比各种算法计算复杂度和计算时间,发现灰度投影算法准确率低、计算量较小;块匹配搜索算法中的穷尽搜索算法准确率高,但是计算量较大。为了发挥以上两者算法的优势,将两者结合形成了灰度块匹配算法,并通过实验证实了灰度块匹配算法在实时监测系统中的可行性。     

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

A new assessment model for evacuation vulnerability in urban areas

In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment.     

矿业权边界在资源储量估算垂直纵投影图上的确定

利用垂直纵投影图进行资源储量估算时,当矿体走向与矿业权边界斜交时,矿业权边界在资源储量垂直纵投影图上投影的准确位置较难确定。该文介绍了利用不同中段平面图和利用计算公式确定矿业权边界在资源储量垂直纵投影图上的投影位置,对解决此类问题具有一定的参考价值。     

A New Reference Material for Tritium Organic Molecules in Sediment: Results of an International Intercomparison Exercise

Solid matrix ³H reference materials are challenging to prepare given the volatile nature of ³H and are often unrepresentative of the range of ³H forms that may be encountered during routine analysis. As a result, few ³H reference materials are currently available, undermining verification of analytical techniques for environmental ³H measurement. To address this, an International Working Group on Organically‐Bound Tritium Analysis determined to produce a tritium natural matrix reference material (NMRM). The reference material comprises marine sediment blended with sewage sludge contaminated with ³H‐organic species arising from authorised discharges from a radiopharmaceutical manufacturing site. Previous studies have demonstrated that the ³H species have persisted in the environment over three decades providing valuable supporting data to underpin the characterisation of the NMRM. The preparation and characterisation of the NMRM are described along with the subsequent application of the reference material in an international intercomparison exercise involving nineteen laboratories from nine countries. A reference value of 168 ± 22 Bq kg^?1 was derived from the data arising from the proficiency test.     

概率密度分布法在“一带一路”地区极端月气温评估和预估中的应用

“一带一路”地区人口众多,气候类型复杂,亟待加强区域气候变化风险的认识。文中将该区分成10个区域,基于第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的31个全球模式模拟结果,应用概率密度分布（PDF）方法评估历史阶段（1986—2005年）各模式模拟暖月和冷月气温的能力,挑选并建立较优模式集合,用以预估21世纪中叶（2041—2060年）和21世纪末（2081—2100年）的极端月气温。结果表明,模式对观测中冷月气温距平PDF的模拟水平整体较暖月高。与多模式平均以及中位值相比,较优模式集合方法更适于极端暖/冷月气温的评估。在中等排放RCP4.5情景下,与低纬度地区相比,较优模式模拟中高纬地区未来极端暖/冷月气温的增温幅度的不确定性范围较大。21世纪中叶和21世纪末较优模式模拟的极端暖月气温在地中海增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。对较优模式集合预估的极端冷月气温而言,无论是21世纪中叶还是世纪末,北欧增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。